The Sabres head to Denver for a rematch against the Cup champs

Setting the Scene

The Sabres rediscovered their scoring ways notching six goals in the third period against Los Angeles on Tuesday. They’re currently in last place in the Atlantic Division despite sporting a +12 goal-differential. Colorado grabbed five of six possible points in their last three games and continue to get healthier with old friend Evan Rodrigues expected to return to the lineup tonight.

State of the Sabres

Power Rank: 25th

Forwards: 25th

Defense: 26th

Goaltending: 13th

Goals-for per game: 3.97

Goals-against per game: 3.55

Power Play: Owen Power just turned 20 years old in November, and what he is doing at even-strength offensively is historically unmatched. Among all defensemen, Power ranks in the 97th percentile in GFV (goals-for value) at even-strength. This means that when he is on the ice, his team produces more offense then 97% of the other defensemen in the NHL in the same situation. For comparison, only Cale Makar, Gustav Forsling, and Brandon Montour are in the 97th percentile or higher and have played more minutes this season.

Brush Up on the Avalanche

Power Rank: 3rd

Forwards: 2nd

Defense: 1st

Goaltending: 19th

Goals-for per game: 3.15

Goals-against per game: 2.81

Who’s who: With Rodrigues returning to the lineup today, he’ll likely bump out one of the revolving door of call-ups that the Avalanche have used in December in lieu of their injured veterans. This group includes Mikhail Maltsev, Martin Kaut, Shane Bowers, Oskar Olausson, Alex Galchenyuk, Sampo Ranta, Anton Blidh, Callahan Burke, Jean-Luc Foudy, Charles Hudon, and Ben Meyers. Foudy, Hudon, and Meyers remain with the club and project to play tonight.

Key Matchup

The tower top lines clash tonight with 6’1″ Casey Mittelstadt, 6’6″ Tage Thompson, and 6’4″ Alex Tuch squaring off against 6’0″ Artturi Lehkonen, 6’4″ Mikko Rantanen, 6’4″ Valeri Nichushkin. These two lines boast not only height, but a ton of offensive skill in various forms. Nathan MacKinnon, injured earlier this month, will not play so the Avalanche will rely on Rantanen to be the focal point of the offense up front.

Projected Lineups

Buffalo Sabres

F

Casey Mittelstadt – Tage Thompson – Alex Tuch

JJ Peterka – Dylan Cozens – Jack Quinn

Rasmus Asplund – Tyson Jost – Victor Olofsson

Zemgus Girgensons – Peyton Krebs – Vinnie Hinostroza

D

Mattias Samuelsson – Rasmus Dahlin

Owen Power – Kale Clague

Lawrence Pilut – Casey Fitzgerald

G

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (Projected)

Source: Mike Harrington, The Buffalo News

Colorado Avalanche

F

Artturi Lehkonen – Mikko Rantanen – Valeri Nichushkin

Andrew Cogliano – J.T. Compher – Logan O’Connor

Charles Hudon – Alex Newhook – Evan Rodrigues

Jean-Luc Foudy – Ben Meyers – Dryden Hunt

D

Devon Toews – Cale Makar

Samuel Girard – Erik Johnson

Brad Hunt – Andreas Englund

G

Alexandar Georgiev (Projected)

Source: PuckLuck Projected

Best Bets

We nailed the under last game as a PuckLuck Pick despite the Sabres’ best efforts to reach the over in the third period alone. It’s noteworthy that while we have noted the Sabres are a big over team this season but the Avalanche have the second-highest under percentage (63%) at a 6.5 goal-set this season. We’re staying off the the goal totals today.

We don’t have a huge edge, but the home favorite Avalanche at a 65.73% win probability via the PuckLuck model is slightly better than the implied 64.29% at DraftKings Sportsbook. If you consider the puckline (aka spread) at -1.5 goals, we’re showing an even better advantage of 45.07% compared to DraftKings’ 41.67%.

Of course, the numbers can change depending on lineup adjustments and who is officially announced as the starting goalies, so visit PuckLuck.com for updates throughout the day and more NHL sports betting and fantasy hockey content.

All projection data via PuckLuck.com