The Sabres head to Columbus tonight to play on national television

Setting the Scene

After facing a 4-1 defeat in Pittsburgh last night, the Columbus Blue Jackets head home to try to avoid back-to-back losses. Buffalo comes in off another high-flying win over the San Jose Sharks on Sunday, and is averaging 4.86 goals per game over their last seven games. The Blue Jackets have given up the second-most goals per game in the NHL this season (averaging exactly 4 per game), so expect another high-scoring affair.

State of the Sabres

Power Rank: 26th

Forwards: 26th

Defense: 25th

Goaltending: 13th

Goals-for per game: 3.84

Goals-against per game: 3.68

Tender care: The Sabres’ goaltending has become a major talking point as of late, as they have the second-most goals per game in the NHL so far this season but still are only a +4 in the goal-differential department. Of course, a lot of this also rests on the shoulders of the defensive play of the players in front of them, but Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Craig Anderson, and Eric Comrie (when he returns) will need to step up their play. Notably, the PuckLuck model projects their goaltending group around league average, as you can look league-wide and find that a lot of teams are facing the same issue.

Meet the Blue Jackets

Power Rank: 30th

Forwards: 31st

Defense: 27th

Goaltending: 32nd

Goals-for per game: 2.79

Goals-against per game: 4

Dynamic Players: There hasn’t been much dynamic play in Columbus this season so far, but they of course have perennial top offense threats Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine. Top defenseman Zach Werenski is out for the rest of the season, leaving shot-blocking specialists Vladislav Gavrikov and Andrew Peeke as their top blueliners currently.

Key Matchup

This game features two heavy offensively-focused top lines in Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson, and Alex Tuch against Johnny Gaudreau, Boone Jenner, and Patrik Laine. Whoever establishes more on the rush and in the offensive zone between that group is likely to have the upper hand.

Projected Lineups

Buffalo Sabres

F

Jeff Skinner – Tage Thompson – Alex Tuch

JJ Peterka – Dylan Cozens – Jack Quinn

Casey Mittelstadt – Tyson Jost – Victor Olofsson

Zemgus Girgensons – Peyton Krebs – Kyle Okposo

D

Mattias Samuelsson – Rasmus Dahlin

Owen Power – Henri Jokiharju

Jacob Bryson – Casey Fitzgerald

G

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (Confirmed)

Source: Lance Lysowski, The Buffalo News

Columbus Blue Jackets

F

Johnny Gaudreau – Boone Jenner – Patrik Laine

Gustav Nyquist – Jack Roslovic – Kent Johnson

Eric Robinson – Sean Kuraly – Mathieu Olivier

Yegor Chinakhov – Cole Sillinger – Kirill Marchenko

D

Vladislav Gavrikov – Marcus Bjork

Gavin Bayreuther – Andrew Peeke

Tim Berni – Erik Gudbranson

G

Joonas Korpisalo (Confirmed)

Source: PuckLuck Projected (lineup), Jeff Svoboda, BlueJackets.com (goalie)

Best Bets

Easily the highest-projected goal total of the night, the Sabres (3rd) and Blue Jackets (6th) are two of the most reliable teams to hit the over this season. The total at the sportsbooks is set at 6.5, which Buffalo exceeds 64% of the time and Columbus 58% of the time. Usually, at -130 – which is the current line listed at DraftKings Sportsbook – I’d like a fade here for the better buy, but sometimes you just have to take the chalk when it’s this apparent.

If you’re looking for an edge on the moneyline or puckline, it lies with the Sabres. It’s only slight by PuckLuck’s projections, but when the most likely outcome is showing any sort of edge, it’s hard to pass up. Here are the current probabilities for Buffalo today:

Moneyline

PuckLuck: 60.29%

Sportsbook implied: 57.45%

Net: +2.84%

Puckline (spread)

PuckLuck: 40.06%

Sportsbook implied: 36.36%

Net: +3.7%

All projection data via PuckLuck.com