Two weeks ago, Tyson Jost’s NHL career was on the ropes. After being dealt to the Minnesota Wild from the Colorado Avalanche at the 2021-22 trade deadline, the “change of scenery” didn’t prove to be helpful for the former 10^th-overall pick.

In the 33 contests in which he appeared for Minnesota between this season and last, he managed to produce just nine points. Though he posted decent xGF metrics to close out the 2021-22 campaign, his overall rate with the Wild was 43.29% (per Natural Stat Trick). The lack of tangible production paired with a discernible downturn in underlying impacts caused Wild GM, Bill Guerin to end the Jost experiment just 12 games into the 2022-23 season.

For a team with a healthy stable of fringe-caliber forwards, it came as something of a surprise when the Buffalo Sabres elected to claim Jost off the waiver wire. The timing of the move did coincide with a rash of injuries to the Sabres’ AHL affiliate, the Rochester Americans. In that context, the added veteran forward depth did make some sense.

Many fans (myself included) presumed that the 24-year-old would stick around as the Sabres’ extra forward until the organization’s forward core regained health. Jost’s play in his first seven games with Buffalo has seemingly cemented a role for him as a lineup regular.

Let’s take a look at how he’s seized what very well might have been his last legitimate opportunity to prove he belongs in the NHL.

Hot Start in Buffalo

Though he’s been a member of the blue-and-gold for just seven games, Jost’s positive presence has been felt almost immediately. His current xGF mark of 57.86% ranks second among Sabres forwards at five-on-five.

Though he’s tallied just one point so far, his defensive contributions alongside Kyle Okposo and Zemgus Girgensons on the team’s de facto shutdown line have been outstanding. As a trio, they’ve allowed an xGA/60 rate of 2.0 per NST. Even more impressive however is that line’s xGF/60 rate of 4.1. That’s a pretty wild delta from their actual GF/60 rate of 1.37, but that tends to happen on a line with no real “finishers”.

So, how are they doing it? How is this line producing expected goals-for at such a high rate while also allowing so few opportunities against? By my assessment, it’s a matter of skillset fit.

Historically, Girgensons and Okposo are “dump-and-chase” forecheckers. Their ability to establish (and subsequently maintain) offensive possession isn’t predicated on controlled entries, but rather on puck-retrieval ability in the offensive zone.

Players like Jack Quinn and Peyton Krebs (who have also spent a good amount of time playing with Girgensons and Okposo this season) aren’t a fit alongside players of this nature. It’s part of the reason the Okposo-Girgensons line has produced xGF rates of just 44.37% and 41.10% with Krebs and Quinn, respectively.

Despite his billing leading up to the 2016 NHL Draft, Jost is a very different type of offensive contributor. While he certainly doesn’t possess the raw playmaking or finishing ability that Krebs and Quinn have, his aggressive nature as a forechecker has helped make the Sabres’ fourth line a puck-possession force at even-strength.

The below clip, where Jost nabbed his first goal as a Sabre, is a good example of what I’m referring to. As you can see, all three forwards crash in deep to retrieve the dump-in (for lack of a better term). They all stay right in the thick of the board battle until Buffalo has control of the offensive cycle.

Then, both Okposo and Girgensons plant themselves in the “dirty area” in front of the net. This creates chaos among the Tampa Bay Lightning defenders and allows Jost a free rebound opportunity out front. Both the forecheck and cycle approach here are unique to this line (relative to the Sabres’ other offensive trios), and work well to accentuate each player’s respective skill set.

The key now is to keep this trio together. If Don Granato stays the course here, he’s got three extremely effective xG-share lines at his disposal. He got a little cute on Sunday night against the San Jose Sharks, electing to move Jost up the lineup to center Victor Olofsson and Casey Mittelstadt.

The Minnesota version of Jost came right back into focus following that move. Though it was only a five-minute stint, the Sabres got shellacked to the tune of a 4.98% xGF share with that line on the ice. It became a two-fold issue as he moved Krebs back down to the de facto fourth line (a trio we know hasn’t worked, as previously mentioned), which produced an xGF rate of 34.58% in that same period.

Jost can serve as a strong two-way compliment on a defensive forward trio, as evidenced by his immediate impact on the Girgensons-Okposo line. When asked to drive possession alongside two forwards who continue to struggle at five-on-five (i.e. Olofsson and Mittelstadt), his complimentary abilities cannot be properly optimized.

Usage Comparison

Out of curiosity, I wanted to get a gauge for how Jost was being utilized as a member of the Wild this year. Essentially, I wanted to determine if Minnesota was using him as a defensive shutdown entity, or a scoring forward.

After acquiring Jost last season, Guerin expressed his desire to use him in a multitude of different ways. According to Jessi Pierce, a contributor for NHL.com, the GM was quoted as saying the following.

“I think he can fill a lot of different roles for us. But I know one thing he wants to do is get the opportunity to play offensively and produce. So, at some point in time, he’ll get that opportunity.”

That sentiment rang true as Jost was constantly being moved across the lineup, both in a defensive and offensive capacity. Interestingly enough, he struggled in both roles, regardless of deployment and/or linemates. On average, his zone-deployment ratio was about the same as it’s been in Buffalo so far, but he never had consistent linemates.

I was hoping for a more definitive conclusion to present itself in the data, but analytics can’t always explain everything, especially in smaller, fractured samples. Perhaps it was the lack of linemate consistency (i.e. inability to build chemistry) that caused him strife in Minnesota. Maybe the Wild simply didn’t possess complimentary players who could facilitate Jost’s strengths. Or, perhaps he received something of a wake-up call when placed on waivers.

In any event, things are working so far in Buffalo. Hopefully, Granato keeps Jost where he’s thrived. He can still carve out a niche for himself as a puck-possession energy player at the NHL level. Though that’s probably not what Jost imagined when he embarked on his NHL career, it beats the hell out of an AHL assignment.

Closing Thoughts

I’ll keep this last bit relatively brief. While Granato certainly has his flaws as a tactician, he has slowly assembled three good forward lines. The recent linemate consistency across the board has proven beneficial.

What he’s done with Jost to this point is similar to what I’ve wanted to see him try with Mittelstadt. Though they aren’t necessarily similar players in terms of base skillsets, it’s a role where I’ve felt Mittelstadt could have also thrived if given the opportunity.

If nothing else, Jost has made certain players expendable (Riley Sheahan, we barely knew ye). Frustratingly, his presence has also led to consistent healthy scratches for Rasmus Asplund, which raises an interesting discussion about the team’s plans for next summer.

Virtually every one of the Sabres’ defensively-competent forwards is set to either become an RFA or UFA in July. Jost and Asplund are both pending restricted free agents, while Girgensons and Okposo are set to hit the open market.

As far as the RFAs go, Jost’s future in Buffalo might not be so straightforward. He’s due a qualifying offer of $2.25 million, which is a pretty big chunk of change for what he brings to the table. Conversely, Asplund’s qualifying offer only needs to be $875,000.

On the UFA side, a lot of what happens could be partially dependent on Okposo’s plans. Will he retire after this season? Will Kevyn Adams want to bring him back on a shorter, less expensive deal? Will he want to test the open market in pursuit of a Stanley Cup run? It remains to be seen.

There are a lot of factors in play here (and a whole lot of hockey left to be played in 2022-23), but it will be interesting to see who from this group ends up being extended/retained. If Jost wants the Sabres to consider meeting his RFA price tag, he needs to continue to be as effective as he’s been in the early going (and add a few more box score appearances to his resume in the process).

Advanced Metrics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey
Charts courtesy of Hockeyviz and Evolving Hockey

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