Buffalo heads to Detroit to face a division rival on national television

Setting the Scene

Welcome to Expected Buffalo’s all-new game previews, where I will be getting you set for what to expect for each game this season by using the data from my data analytics website, PuckLuck.com. Quickly if you’re not familiar with me and my work, I used to write with Chad, Anthony, and Ryan for SB Nation, before leaving to start up PuckLuck. Over there, I mainly focus on using the statistical models I’ve built to project outcomes of NHL games and use them as a tool for the player and team analysis and sports betting advice.

As far as the Sabres go, they’ve been up and down this season coming into tonight’s game, leaving them at about a projected 82-point pace and a 16% chance of making the playoffs. Their opponent, the Detroit Red Wings, are seven points ahead in the current standings but their poor underlying statistics and difficult remaining schedule (2nd toughest in the NHL) have them projected for only 80 points and a 13% chance at the playoffs.

State of the Sabres

Power Rank: 25th

Forwards: 25th

Defense: 23rd

Goaltending: 12th

Goals-for per game: 3.68

Goals-against per game: 3.59

On the rise: Jack Quinn and Mattias Samuelsson are making a massive positive impact on the lineup since their respective returns from injury. Only Owen Power has a higher goal-differential value at even strength this season. This means that when Quinn and Samuelsson are on the ice, you can expect more goals than goals against, even if they aren’t necessarily the ones doing the scoring.

Meet the Red Wings

Power Rank: 26th

Forwards: 26th

Defense: 30th

Goaltending: 6th

Goals-for per game: 3.24

Goals-against per game: 3.1

Dynamic Players: David Perron continues to be one of the league’s most efficient shooters, and is drawing penalties at an elite rate as well. Olli Maatta’s established himself as an elite penalty-killer from the backend, and Dylan Larkin has improved his faceoff success. Oskar Sundqvist is the Red Wings’ ultimate utility player, as he is one of their first powerplay unit, the first penalty-kill unit draws penalties, and can play up and down the lineup at any forward position.

Key Matchup

Detroit has moved center Andrew Copp to the 3rd line between Adam Erne and Oskar Sundqvist to form a more formidable “shutdown” line. Since the Red Wings will have the luxury of last change tonight, look for them to match up against the Sabres’ top-scoring line of Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner, and Alex Tuch as much as possible today.

Projected Lineups

Buffalo Sabres

F

Jeff Skinner – Tage Thompson – Alex Tuch

JJ Peterka – Dylan Cozens – Jack Quinn

Victor Olofsson – Casey Mittelstadt – Vinnie Hinostroza

Zemgus Girgensons – Tyson Jost – Kyle Okposo

D

Mattias Samuelsson – Rasmus Dahlin

Owen Power – Henri Jokiharju

Lawrence Pilut – Casey Fitzgerald

G

Craig Anderson (Projected)

Source: Lance Lysowski, The Buffalo News

Detroit Red Wings

F

Dominik Kubalik – Dylan Larkin – Lucas Raymond

Tyler Bertuzzi – Michael Rasmussen – David Perron

Adam Erne – Andrew Copp – Oskar Sundqvist

Jonatan Berggren – Joe Veleno – Pius Suter

D

Ben Chiarot – Moritz Seider

Olli Maatta – Filip Hronek

Jake Walman – Jordan Oesterle

G

Alex Nedeljkovic (Confirmed)

Source: Max Bultman, The Athletic

Best Bets

Over at PuckLuck.com, we’re showing a slight edge on the Moneyline for the Sabres, meaning that our odds of them winning (48.45%) are greater than the implied odds from the sportsbook currently at +115 (46.51%). By betting the edges, in theory, we’ll ultimately receive bigger payouts then the total money we wager.

There’s also a solid play on the under today, as the total is set at 6.5 and we’re projecting about a 6-goal game. Only 41% of Sabres games have totaled under 6.5 goals this season, however, while Detroit has seen 52% of its games total under 6.5.

Of course, the numbers can change depending on lineup adjustments and who is officially announced as the starting goalie, so visit PuckLuck.com for updates throughout the day and more content.

All projection data via PuckLuck.com