The Sabres head home to face the defending champs after hanging on in the shootout

Setting the Scene

The Sabres blew a 4-1 3rd period lead last night but managed to cash in for two points in the shootout. The Avalanche come into town after a rough 5-0 loss to the Winnipeg Jets on Tuesday but a very impressive November, going 8-3 in 11 games. Injuries and a bottom-six carousel have some Avs fans concerned in the short term, but PuckLuck projections still have them poised to come out atop the West with 116 points in the long run. They still have plenty of star power, and Buffalo is going to have its hands full to try to nullify it.

State of the Sabres

Power Rank: 25th

Forwards: 25th

Defense: 24th

Goaltending: 12th

Goals-for per game: 3.74

Goals-against per game: 3.61

Second-line production: The NHL’s youngest line of Dylan Cozens, JJ Peterka, and Jack Quinn capped another great display yesterday with two goals from Cozens and a shootout winner by Quinn. The line has been one of the league’s highest in expected goals-for since forming, and if the Sabres can keep relying on them for production the outlook this season looks much more potent.

Meet the Avalanche

Power Rank: 2nd

Forwards: 2nd

Defense: 1st

Goaltending: 18th

Goals-for per game: 3.4

Goals-against per game: 2.6

Dynamic players: You know the big names donning the Avalanche crest. Nathan MacKinnon is one of the league’s best motors and playmakers. Cale Makar is on a different level than other defensemen not only offensively, but he has now established himself as an elite penalty-killer. Finnish friends Mikko Rantanen and Artturi Lehkonen are lethal on the powerplay, and defenseman Josh Manson has added a hard-nosed element to the team’s backend.

Key Matchup

Buffalo’s top pair of Mattias Samuelsson and Rasmus Dahlin has the daunting task of slowing down Colorado’s stacked top line. MacKinnon, Lehkonen, and Rantanen will get their chances, but if you can stay on the right side of them and limit the rush opportunities the Sabres’ offense should be able to go to work.

Projected Lineups

Colorado Avalanche

F

Artturi Lehkonen – Nathan MacKinnon – Mikko Rantanen

Alex Galchenyuk – Alex Newhook – Jean-Luc Foudy

Andrew Cogliano – J.T. Compher – Logan O’Connor

Anton Blidh – Jayson Megna – Dryden Hunt

D

Devon Toews – Cale Makar

Samuel Girard – Josh Manson

Jacob MacDonald – Erik Johnson

G

Alexandar Georgiev (Unconfirmed)

Source: PuckLuck Projected

Buffalo Sabres

F

Jeff Skinner – Tage Thompson – Alex Tuch

JJ Peterka – Dylan Cozens – Jack Quinn

Rasmus Asplund – Casey Mittelstadt – Victor Olofsson

Zemgus Girgensons – Tyson Jost – Kyle Okposo

D

Mattias Samuelsson – Rasmus Dahlin

Owen Power – Henri Jokiharju

Lawrence Pilut – Casey Fitzgerald

G

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (Projected)

Source: PuckLuck Projected

Best Bets

With the Avalanche listed at around -200 at the sportsbooks and the Sabres listed at around +170, this is a cautionary sign of a no-bet. Since sportsbooks set the odds to always leave themselves some room to profit, betting on either side of games like this consistently would just be throwing your money away.

Under 6.5 goals is the only play with the slightest of edges, but PuckLuck’s model has been under-projecting games by an average of 0.16 goals per game since scoring in the NHL has been up. Add in the 0.16 to this game and, well, we’re at 6.5 exactly. You can turn to the over/under percentages page at PuckLuck.com to reconfirm your notion, which shows the Sabres improved their over percentage at 6.5 last night to 61%, while the Avs hit the under at 6.5 60% of the time this season. In other words, another no-bet.

I can’t leave you without one value play, so I will say that the most intriguing player props lately have been a Jack Quinn anytime goal and a Dylan Cozens powerplay point. As of this morning on DraftKings, they’re listed at +390 and +310, respectively.

Of course, the numbers can change depending on lineup adjustments and who is officially announced as the starting goalie, so visit PuckLuck.com for updates throughout the day and more content.

All projection data via PuckLuck.com