The Kings are in town for a projected high-event affair

Setting the Scene

The Sabres are coming off a disappointing weekend against Pittsburgh, only coming away with one of a possible four points in their home-and-home series. Los Angeles is also coming off a rough defeat in Columbus, losing in a high-scoring overtime affair. Both teams are struggling to find their footing in net, giving up over 100 goals each this season.

State of the Sabres

Power Rank: 26th

Forwards: 25th

Defense: 25th

Goaltending: 13th

Goals-for per game: 3.89

Goals-against per game: 3.68

Without Skinner: The Sabres are turning to Casey Mittelstadt to replace the suspended Jeff Skinner on the top line and powerplay. Per PuckLuck projections, this is a significant downgrade at even-strength and a slight improvement on the powerplay. In goal-differential value, a PuckLuck metric to predict a player’s impact on offense and defense when on the ice, Skinner ranks in the 63rd percentile at even-strength while Mittelstadt ranks in the 9th percentile. Meanwhile, Skinner ranks in the 28th percentile of all powerplay contributors compared to the 57th percentile for Mittelstadt.

Meet the Kings

Power Rank: 17th

Forwards: 15th

Defense: 12th

Goaltending: 9th

Goals-for per game: 3.42

Goals-against per game: 3.61

Dynamic Players: The names you know such as Anze Kopitar have not been the ones carrying the load this season. Gabriel Vilardi has burst onto the scene, establishing himself not only as a finisher, but also a play-driver and penalty drawer. Kevin Fiala is Los Angeles’ top playmaker, and Adrian Kempe shoots the puck early and often. Blake Lizotte is also an underrated impact player, providing value as a physical player who blocks shots, draws penalties, and wins faceoffs.

Key Matchup

It’s Pheonix Copley vs. Craig Anderson in net today, as these two teams struggle to find consistency at the position. You’ll notice both teams’ goaltending as a whole projects in the top half of the league this season, and it’s really thanks to these two netminders for showing they can provide positive goals-saved above expected numbers until their teams’ incumbent goalies can get back on track. For the Kings, that’s Jonathan Quick improving his play. For the Sabres, that’s Eric Comrie getting healthy.

Projected Lineups

Buffalo Sabres

F

Casey Mittelstadt – Tage Thompson – Alex Tuch

JJ Peterka – Dylan Cozens – Jack Quinn

Zemgus Girgensons – Peyton Krebs – Kyle Okposo

Rasmus Asplund – Tyson Jost – Victor Olofsson

D

Mattias Samuelsson – Rasmus Dahlin

Owen Power – Jacob Bryson

Kale Clague – Casey Fitzgerald

G

Craig Anderson (Confirmed)

Source: Lance Lysowski, The Buffalo News

Los Angeles Kings

F

Kevin Fiala – Anze Kopitar – Arthur Kaliyev

Trevor Moore – Phillip Danault – Jaret Anderson-Dolan

Alex Iafallo – Adrian Kempe – Gabriel Vilardi

Carl Grundstrom – Blake Lizotte – Samuel Fagemo

D

Mikey Anderson – Drew Doughty

Sean Durzi – Matt Roy

Alex Edler – Sean Walker

G

Pheonix Copley (Confirmed)

Lineup Source: PuckLuck Projected
Goalie Source: Zach Dooley, lakingsinsider.com

Best Bets

Los Angeles and Buffalo hit over 6.5 goals 59.5% of the time on average, so it’s hard to look at that 6.17 projected goals today and ride the under. The line at DraftKings sportsbook has moved to +115 for under 6.5 though, and like I noted previously both teams are trotting out their best-performing goaltenders this season. There’s enough of an edge here to justify a play.

If you prefer to look moneyline or puckline, there’s a slight edge on the Kings.A -1.5 goal spread paying $2.20 per dollar wagered could give you a nice payout should Los Angeles at least seal the game with an empty netter.

Of course, the numbers can change depending on lineup adjustments and who is officially announced as the starting goalies, so visit PuckLuck.com for updates throughout the day and more NHL sports betting and fantasy hockey content.

All projection data via PuckLuck.com