The Penguins visit their high-flying neighbors up north

Setting the Scene

There’s nowhere better to start than with Tage Thompson’s five-goal, a six-point offensive masterpiece in Wednesday’s 9-4 Sabres win in Columbus. Pittsburgh also last played the Blue Jackets, hosting them in a 4-1 victory on Tuesday. The Penguins come into tonight winning their last three and pointing in their last four, currently seven points ahead of Buffalo in the Eastern Conference standings. The Sabres have been notably worse at home so far this season, with only a 43% point percentage compared to a 55% point percentage on the road.

State of the Sabres

Power Rank: 24th

Forwards: 25th

Defense: 25th

Goaltending: 13th

Goals-for per game: 4.04

Goals-against per game: 3.69

Expected vs. Reality: There was a little discourse on Twitter regarding expected goals as the Sabres yet again popped for a monster 9-goal game despite losing the expected goal battle 2.63 to 1.87 per Evolving-Hockey. There’s plenty of explanation for this, most notably Columbus’ goaltending. The Blue Jackets are saving about 0.36 goals below expected per game, and the PuckLuck model conservatively projects them to only better that number to 0.23 below expected per game going forward.

Also, Tage Thompson historically scores above expected, which can be a clear indicator of shooting talent. PuckLuck projections show that he scores at an expectation rate of 131%. That means if an average shooter nets 35 goals, Thompson will net nearly 46 with the same opportunity. Think of the location of most of Tage’s goals, and you’ll realize the eye test and stats line up.

Meet the Penguins

Power Rank: 13th

Forwards: 13th

Defense: 11th

Goaltending: 14th

Goals-for per game: 3.58

Goals-against per game: 3.04

Dynamic Players: Besides the obvious Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Jake Guentzel offensive dynamo, Jason Zucker has stepped up as a bit of a play-driver this season. The Penguins have also gotten solid contributions from their role players, with Kasperi Kapanen creating offense since returning to the lineup, Chad Ruhwedel stepping in admirably with Kris Letang out, and Josh Archibald successfully filling the pest role.

Key Matchup

It’s no secret that the Sabres have simply tried to outscore teams this season, with a major focus on offense to cover any defensive liabilities. The Sabres’ powerplay has been red-hot and is the NHL’s third-best converting at 29%. They are facing the league’s seventh-best penalty kill in the Penguins, successfully killing 81.71% of penalties this season. If this is a stalemate, it’s a win for Pittsburgh as they are the more complete team at even strength.

Projected Lineups

Buffalo Sabres

F

Jeff Skinner – Tage Thompson – Alex Tuch

JJ Peterka – Dylan Cozens – Jack Quinn

Zemgus Girgensons – Peyton Krebs – Kyle Okposo

Casey Mittelstadt – Tyson Jost – Victor Olofsson

D

Mattias Samuelsson – Rasmus Dahlin

Owen Power – Henri Jokiharju

Jacob Bryson – Casey Fitzgerald

G

Craig Anderson (Projected)

Source: Mike Harrington, The Buffalo News

Pittsburgh Penguins

F

Jake Guentzel – Sidney Crosby – Rickard Rakell

Jason Zucker– Evgeni Malkin – Bryan Rust

Brock McGinn – Jeff Carter – Kasperi Kapanen

Danton Heinen – Teddy Blueger – Josh Archibald

D

Marcus Pettersson – Jeff Petry

Brian Dumoulin – Jan Rutta

Pierre-Olivier Joseph – Chad Ruhwedel

G

Tristan Jarry (Projected)

Source: PuckLuck Projected

Best Bets

Smart sports betting requires a methodic strategy, and by using PuckLuck’s projections we’re able to find any edge we might have on the sportsbooks. In this case, the sportsbooks and betting public are likely to move the line more in favor of the Sabres, due to their most recent performance, and we’re already showing a slightly higher spread than implied by the odds.

This leaves us staring down the Pittsburgh puckline, which at DraftKings currently sits at +165 for the Penguins to win by 2 or more goals. This implies a 37.74% chance of that happening, while we’re showing a 38.32% chance. It’s very slim, but if you’re looking for a play this is it. It will pay $1.65 for every dollar bet.

Of course, the numbers can change depending on lineup adjustments and who is officially announced as the starting goalies, so visit PuckLuck.com for updates throughout the day and more NHL sports betting and fantasy hockey content.

All projection data via PuckLuck.com