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Most Valuable Unrestricted Free Agent Goaltenders

by Chad DeDominicis - 0

We put a bow on our look at unrestricted free agents that could be available in offseason today with a look at the goaltenders. This is a market that the Buffalo Sabres could be exploring. Goaltending has been a problem for the organization for years now. They’ve struggled to get even league average from the position at times, which has contributed to their consistent placement at the bottom of the standings.

Like the defense class, the goalies that will be on the market are nothing special. The two at the top of the group in terms of notoriety are Braden Holtby from the Washington Capitals and Jacob Markstrom of the Vancouver Canucks. After that, you’re looking at a handful of platoon or career backup goaltenders.

The good news is that the Sabres may not be in the market for a long-term starter. Instead, they’re looking for someone to replace Carter Hutton and team up with Linus Ullmark as a platoon tandem.

The Sabres have two good goaltending prospects in their system in Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Erik Portillo. However, neither will likely see the NHL for at least two years. Luukkonen had some struggles in the AHL in his first rookie season that should pump the breaks on the desire to rush him to the NHL. After having a good season in the USHL, Portillo will head to the University of Michigan next season for a few years.

Analysis

That brings us back to the need for the Sabres to at the very least figure out a bridge to get them to a time when Luukkonen is ready to step into the NHL.

Before we get into the players, I’m doing things a little different this time than what you saw in my articles about the free-agent forwards and defensemen. I’m not going to be focusing on a contract that much or really at all in this breakdown.

The Evolving Hockey twins didn’t put together contract projections (yet) on the goaltenders that will need new deals. The other reason is that goalies, in general, are hard to gauge. Not only in performance, but in what type of contracts they’ll receive. I’ll discuss what could be their range, but I won’t have any solid numbers to fall back on.

I’ll be widening the data to look at three seasons’ worth of performance. We don’t want to get caught evaluating players based on one season. Goaltenders can be up and down from year to year. Therefore, we want to attempt to find some consistency.

Also, we’re going to be looking at some different numbers in this exercise due to the change in position. I’m not going to be discussing the expected goals above replacement (xGAR) model that I did in the last two pieces. My focus will be on two goaltending stats in particular from Evolving Hockey.

The first is goals saved above expected (GSAx). That stat looks at shot quality against (xGA) and actual goals scored against. The simple math behind it is xGA-GA. This measure gives us a look just beyond save percentage. Some goalies face easy work which can inflate their save percentage. It’s important to take shot quality faced into account when you’re evaluating a goaltender for performance.

Let’s look at the chart using this data:

The chart above plots unrestricted free agent goaltenders looking shot quality against on the x-axis and GSAx on the y-axis. Also, we get an idea of age and ice time over the last three years. The shade of each bubble is a representation of age and the size is an indication of playing time. The larger the bubble the more ice time that player was between the pipes compared to others on the list.

We can start to see a few goaltenders jump out as players to consider in free agency.

The other data point that I’ll be using is adjusted Fenwick save percentage (dFSv%). This is an adjusted save percentage number that looks at unblocked shot attempts against (FA) and shot quality against once again (xGA). The math the twins use behind this number is Fsv% (Fenwick save percentage) – xFSv% (expected Fenwick save percentage).

Again, let’s go to the chart.

Once again you’ll see a look at ice time with the shaded bars. You’ll notice a few players at the top of this chart are ones that graded out well on the chart above as well.

Alright, let’s get to listing our top three options based on the data I’ve now laid out.

1. Ryan Miller

Leading us off is the last Sabres goaltender to give the team decent goaltending for a consistent stretch. That is none other than Ryan Miller. He’s played the last few years of his career in Southern California for the Anaheim Ducks behind John Gibson.

Miller leads all free agents over the last three seasons in GSAx and dFSv%. He’s also faced one of the highest shot quality against rates among these goaltenders behind a Ducks defense that has struggled.

There are a few caveats with the veteran goalie, such as his age. He’ll be 40-years-old when the season starts and has a lot of miles on his body. In terms of being a solution for the Sabres, that could be an issue as well. Miller plays in California because that is where his wife lives and has expressed his desire to remain there.

While it would be a cool story and he could be a short-term solution; the likelihood of it happening seems slim.

2. Corey Crawford

The next goaltender up is another veteran and he has two Stanley Cups to his name in Corey Crawford. The long-time Chicago Blackhawks goalie may hit the open market in the offseason. The Blackhawks traded Robin Lehner to the Vegas Golden Knights before the season was suspended, but they could look to bring him back in free agency. It’s also possible Crawford stays in the Windy City.

If he does hit the market, at the 35-years-old, he could be another short-term option for the Sabres. He’s battled some concussion issues in recent years, but he’s still playing well behind a poor Chicago defense. He’s second on the list in GSAx and dFSv% over the last three years. He was also fourth in the entire league this season in GSAx among all goaltenders to play at least 500 minutes in all situations.

He may be a pricier due to his pedigree, but I wouldn’t expect any team giving a long-term commitment to Crawford. His veteran experience combined with his ability to still perform at a good level could be just what the Sabres need.

3. Anton Khudobin

The last player is current Dallas Starts backup, Anton Khudobin. He’s had great numbers playing behind Ben Bishop and has done well filling in when Bishop is out with the injury. He’s a decent option for the Sabres, but there are still a few things that worry me.

To be honest, signing Khudobin reminds me a lot of when the Sabres brought in Hutton two years ago. It’s almost the same situation. He’ll be 34-years-old at the start of next season and has only played more than 40 games in a season one time in his career. He’s also had one of the lowest shot quality faced ratings among all of the free-agent goaltenders. Again, similar to what we saw with Hutton coming from the St. Louis Blues strong defensive system.

You can’t deny his numbers and he’s done well everywhere he’s going throughout his career. In the short-term, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to see if you can get better performance in goal.

Outside of these three, there are some other decent options on the market. If the Sabres want to invest in a goaltender to act as the starter they would be wise to look at Markstrom. He had a strong season with the Canucks to solidify himself as a starter.

The player to avoid in this situation would be Holtby. He’ll likely cost a lot of money and has been below average for the Capitals for the majority of the last two years. He did lead his team to a Stanley Cup in 2018 so that can’t be overlooked. However, he’s been underwhelming since then for the Caps.

It may be a better idea to explore the trade market to upgrade in goal for the Sabres, but the free-agent market does have a few options as well. We’ll see what they decide to do in goal for next season, but continuing with the same tandem seems like a poor idea at this point.

Data via Evolving Hockey
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