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Great Seasons of Sabres Past: Derek Roy | 2007-08

We’re facing an unprecedented time in our lives right now with COVID-19. During our time in lockdown, I’ve made it my goal to try to help people get an escape through my hockey writing. It helps me get a reprieve from what is going on in the world and I hope that I’ve done a good job giving you that outlet.

Having said that, I was starting to run out of ideas on what to write about. The sport is stuck in a time of uncertainty. We don’t know if the season will continue or the offseason is what will come next. Watching the replays of the Ottawa Senators series back in 2006 and an idea popped into my head. I wondered how good a particular player was looking back at the advanced stats.

That type of information wasn’t the focus or even a real consideration when evaluating players 10 years ago. So, let’s have some fun and go back to explore some of the best seasons a handful of players had over the last 12 years in Sabres history.

MVP Campaign

We’ll kick this series looking at one of the better seasons a Sabres player has put together in the last 15 years. That is the 2007-08 season from Derek Roy. The club was coming off back to back Eastern Conference finals appearances and just lost their two stars in the offseason (Chris Drury and Daniel Briere).

They needed a center to step up and attempt to fill the void vacated by the departure of those two players and Roy did just that during that season. He scored a career-high 32 goals and 81 points in 78 games that year. He finished that season 21st overall in goals per 60 minutes and ninth in points per 60 minutes at 5 on 5, according to Evolving Hockey. Beyond the production numbers, the advanced stats behind Roy’s 07-08 season were among the best in the league.

The RAPM chart above from Evolving Hockey begins to lay the groundwork for the impressive season Roy put together. He ranked fifth in the entire league among all players in the NHL to play at least 500 minutes during the 2007-08 season in on-ice shot quality for (xGF/60) in the twins RAPM model.

It gets more impressive as you keep going through different numbers. Roy finished in the top three that season in Evolving Hockey’s goals above replacement (GAR) model.

Alex Ovechkin won the Hart Trophy for the 2007-08 season and Jarome Iginla was one of the three finalists for the award. The other finalist was Evgeni Malkin. It’s hard to argue with Ovechkin as the correct recipient of the award after scoring 65 goals and 112 points that season. Roy, however, didn’t receive a single vote for the Hart that year as one of the top impact players in the league.

The primary reason for that is likely due to the Sabres failing to make the playoffs. They finished with 90 points which were four points short of the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. I’m not saying he would have been one of the three finalists had they made the playoffs, but he could have received some votes. Especially the season after the departure of Briere and Drury.

Top Line

Roy’s most common linemates that season were two other young players in Thomas Vanek and Drew Stafford. Vanek was looking to prove himself after getting a new big contract courtesy of an Edmonton Oilers offer sheet and Stafford was in his second season with the Sabres.

That line ended up performing as one of the best in the league that season. Among lines to play at least 200 minutes together at 5 on 5, they were 11th in goals for per 60 minutes (3.79). They were also 10th in the league in shot quality for (xGF/60).

The most impressive part may be the strong defensive numbers they put up as a line. They were seventh overall in expected goals +/- because of their shot quality against (xGA) rating of 1.99 in 350 minutes together at 5 on 5.

We all know how Roy’s career ended up going with the Sabres after this season. He was a productive player, but at times was frustrating to watch. He never matched the performance he put up in the 2007-08 season the remainder of his career.

In the next edition of this series, we’ll look at a strong season from a Sabres defenseman. He was perhaps one of the more underappreciated players on the team back in the late 2000s.

Data via Evolving Hockey

One thought on “Great Seasons of Sabres Past: Derek Roy | 2007-08

  1. Curious that you said he never matched that performance as he may have come close to that production in the 2010-11 season from a points perspective. However, I’d be interested to see the fancy stats on this season comparatively! Thanks for the great content!

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