The San Jose Sharks are at a crossroads. After failing to qualify for the NHL’s extended playoff format, the somewhat cap-strapped Sharks have some decisions to make this offseason. In terms of what a potential “blow it up” candidate looks like, they certainly fit the description (i.e. an aging core that isn’t quite good enough to contend).

Alternatively, San Jose has some very expensive veterans (particularly on defense) who are locked-in on long-term contracts. So, instead of rebuilding, they could try to make one more push, especially if they feel this past season was just a speedbump, and confidence remains in their current core.

If Doug Wilson is looking to either rebuild or at the very least, shake-up his current group, the Buffalo Sabres could be a solid match as a potential trade partner. Buffalo has a handful of futures that could entice San Jose to deal one of their expiring (or close to expiring) forwards.

Sharks Offseason Outlook

2020-21 Projected Cap Space (via Cap Friendly): $14.1 Million

Key Restricted Free Agents: Kevin Labanc (arbitration-eligible), Antti Suomela (arbitration-eligible), Jacob Middleton (arbitration-eligible)

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: Melker Karlsson, Stefan Noesen, Joe Thornton, Brandon Davidson, Dalton Prout, Aaron Dell

Projected Needs: Goaltender, Depth Scoring, Cost-Effective Defensive Reinforcements

Tomáš Hertl | C | Two-years, $5.63 million AAV

As far as public speculation goes, Hertl is probably the most frequently-speculated trade candidate on the Sharks’ roster. In late-May, our very own Chad DeDominicis mentioned the Sabres having some interest in the 26-year-old This was obviously prior to Kevyn Adams taking over as GM, so it remains to be seen if said interest still exists.

There is no doubt that Hertl would provide Buffalo with a young, dynamic presence down the middle. Unfortunately, his season was cut short due to a torn ACL and MCL which he suffered in January. He then underwent corrective surgery on February 3^rd. This has understandably caused some concern regarding a potential trade.

Prior to the injury, the Hertl was putting together a nice season, posting 36 points in 48 games (a 61-point pace over 82 games). His underlying impacts were equally impressive as his base scoring totals. Despite missing the last 34 games of the season, he was the Sharks’ team-leader in GAR and trailed only to Logan Couture and Erik Karlsson in xGAR.

Unsurprisingly, the dynamic pivot also led all San Jose regulars in even-strength xG rate at 56.76-percent, and he did it while carrying an OZS rate of 47.87-percent (fourth-lowest zone-start ratio among Sharks forwards). This wasn’t just a one-year production burst either. Consistently, Hertl has posted outstanding underlying metrics, though 2019-20 was arguably his best campaign to date.

In addition to his value at even-strength, his ability on the power-play is an added bonus. This season, he was a key contributor on the man-advantage, as his team experienced a 29-percent increase over-average (9.19 xG/60) when he was on the ice. In his career, he’s also done a nice job of drawing penalties (15-percent over-average).

As of right now, Hertl’s health status is the only issue with pursuing him via trade (and subsequently parting with significant pieces in order to obtain him). A full recovery will be crucial if the Sabres are still interested in making a deal here. The Sharks’ ask would likely start with Buffalo’s 2021 first-round pick, as well as some cost-effective help on the blue line. That’s quite a gamble.

Kevin Labanc | RW | RFA

The Sharks sent shockwaves throughout the NHL last offseason when they extended Labanc for one-year at $1 million after he posted an impressive 56 points in 82 games. This was by far the biggest bargain extension of the summer, but that type of team-friendly agreement isn’t likely to happen again.

As an arbitration-eligible winger, Evolving Hockey projects the 24-year-old to command a three-year deal, just shy of $3.8 million AAV. Interestingly enough, this raise would come after a substantial dip in base scoring production from last season. In 2019-20, he notched 33 points over 70 games which, projected over a full season, would have put him near 39 total points (a 19-point reduction from 2018-19).

Analytically, Labanc has always been very solid on offense and a bit of a mixed bag (to put it gently) on defense. Despite the drop-off in base scoring, the 2019-20 campaign was actually one of his best. He posted a career-high xG rate of 54.15-percent in the lowest OZS deployment ratio he’s experienced to date (51.35-percent). Like Hertl, he too has been an extremely effective presence on the Sharks power-play the past few seasons.

Equally impressive was the impact he had on his most frequent linemates. Joe Thornton, Evander Kane, and Timo Meier experienced xG increases of 7.18, 12.54, and 7.15-percent, respectively when deployed with Labanc versus without him. Of his five most frequent linemates, Hertel was the only player whose xG rate went virtually unaltered as a result of Labanc’s presence.

This idea all comes down to how San Jose feels about him after a down-year where his yearly salary is expected to virtually quadruple. A package involving an inexpensive depth contributor like Casey Mittelstadt might be a reasonable price, though the Sabres would certainly have to add on their end (probably substantially).

Timo Meier | LW | Three-years, $6 million AAV

I know what you’re thinking – this one is a pipedream. There is an argument to be made that Meier is the Sharks’ best player. Given that he’s locked down at a pretty reasonable deal for three more years, San Jose would want something very substantial in order to part with him.

The good news here is that, despite experiencing a mild scoring drop-off from last season (.846 points-per-game versus .70), Meier’s underlying numbers were still very good. His xG rate of 53.06 was quite strong alongside a mediocre (and somewhat elderly) slate of linemates in Patrick Marleau, Barclay Goodrow, and Joe Thornton. His on-ice shot-production rates weren’t quite as gaudy as the two seasons prior, but they were still positive.

Due to the fact that I’ve yet to mention a potential Sam Reinhart trade in any of our team trade breakdowns, let’s have some fun here. If San Jose is simply looking to re-tool the existing core, perhaps Reinhart, in addition to a younger piece nearing NHL-readiness (like Mittelstadt, Ryan Johnson, or Mattias Samuelsson), could be enough to entice them.

There aren’t many reasonably available wingers who the Sabres would consider dealing Reinhart for, but this is a situation where it would make some sense, even if the Sharks want one of the aforementioned youngsters as an add-on.

GAR and RAPM Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey

Heatmap courtesy of Hockeyviz

Advanced Metrics and Teammate Data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

Photo Credit: Brandon Magnus/NHLI via Getty Images