Rounding out our list of Atlantic Division trade partners is the Buffalo Sabres’ arch-rival, the Toronto Maple Leafs. As most are already aware, Kyle Dubas has some difficult decisions to make this offseason as it pertains to managing his team’s salary cap. He already took the first step in alleviating the issue when he dealt Kasperi Kapanen to the Pittsburgh Penguins, but his job still isn’t over.

It has been widely speculated that the Maple Leafs intend to make a push for UFA defenseman, Alex Pietrangelo when free agency opens. The 30-year-old blueliner is expected to command something in the range of $9-10 million AAV on the open market. If that’s the case, more incumbent salaries need to be moved off their ledger.

Toronto only has one RFA that is expected to command an expensive extension in Ilya Mikheyev who, according to Evolving Hockey, should command something in the neighborhood of three-years, $3.1 million AAV. Even at that, their current cap space would be cut in half, and they’d need a lot more relief if they want to make a serious push for Pietrangelo, who will have multiple suitors.

With very few strong assets on the back end, Toronto will look to its high-priced forward group for potential relief. While speculating a trade with a division rival comes with a certain degree of difficulty, there are moves that could potentially benefit both sides. That said, there will be a market for the following players, and the Sabres might have to overpay in order to acquire them, which is obviously not ideal.

Still, let’s take a look at a few players who the Sabres could have interest in, should the in-division ask remain somewhat reasonable.

Leafs Offseason Outlook

2020-21 Projected Cap Space (via Cap Friendly): $6.11 million

Key Restricted Free Agents: Ilya Mikheyev (arbitration-eligible), Denis Malgin (arbitration-eligible), Frederik Gautheir (arbitration-eligible), Evan Rodrigues (arbitration-eligible), Travis Dermott

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: Tyson Barrie, Cody Ceci, Kyle Clifford, Jason Spezza

Projected Needs: Cap Space, Defensive Help

1. Alex Kerfoot | C | Three-years, $3.5 million AAV

We’ll kick things off with the most likely player to be traded on the Maple Leafs’ roster in 26-year-old pivot, Alex Kerfoot. Following a slight reduction in base-scoring from his 2018-19 campaign with the Colorado Avalanche, his salary does sort of stand out in contrast to his overall production. With 28 points in 65 games, Toronto was obviously hoping for more production when he came over as part of the Nazem Kadri trade.

Along with his modest scoring dip, Kerfoot’s underlying impacts, while still positive overall, also experienced a degree of regression in his first season with Toronto. During his final year in Colorado, he flourished as a shot-suppression entity and contributed a fair amount of offense. This season, he wasn’t as effective in either area.

Part of it may have had to do with the fact that the 2019-20 season was the first time in his career he experienced a defensively-tilted faceoff deployment rate at 47.62-percent. Linemate talent-level certainly wasn’t the issue, as he spent the majority of his time with players like Mikheyev, John Tavares, and William Nylander. It is important to note that Toronto’s defensive core isn’t at the same level as Colorado, so team shot-suppression, in general, wasn’t that good (which obviously affects individual on-ice metrics).

For what Kerfoot is capable of bringing to the table, his salary isn’t terrible. That said, the Sabres should be leery of how much they’d be willing to part with in exchange for him. His metrics could conceivably improve as the Sabres’ de facto third-line center. Even at that however, Buffalo needs a defensively strong asset down the middle, and it remains to be seen if Kerfoot can truly be effective in a defense-heavy role.

2. Andreas Johnsson | LW | Three-years, $3.4 million AAV

This season, Johnsson spent a great deal of time on Toronto’s top line flanking Auston Matthews. His overall xG rate of 51.41-percent was a slight improvement from last season, but it is worth mentioning that he started a whopping 73.68-percent of his shifts in the offensive zone.

Before missing the last seven regular-season contests due to a knee injury (which followed a different leg injury that caused him to miss an additional 15 games in December and January), he posted 21 points in 43 games. It’s a relatively small and fractured sample, but the hope in Toronto was that he would be more productive riding shotgun most frequently with offensively-dynamic players in Matthews and William Nylander.

If we were to assume that the aforementioned ailments were the primary cause of Johnsson’s poor numbers, the Sabres would need to be confident that they could put him in a position to succeed. Despite the offensive ability he exhibited in 2018-19, he isn’t a player who will help drive a line. For a team short on defensively capable forwards, he’d be a sub-optimal for the Sabres.

For the cost of not only his cap hit, but whatever Buffalo would have to send to Toronto via trade, Kevyn Adams would have to be certain, not only that Ralph Krueger can optimize him somewhere in the top-six, but also that his leg has fully recovered. Those are two really big question marks.

3. William Nylander | RW | Four-years, $6.96 million AAV

Now, we’ve reached the “pipe dream” section of the piece. Despite the popular critiques of his work ethic and billing as a “perimeter player”, Nylander is still one of the more offensively impactful wingers in the NHL.

This season, he set a career-high in goals (31), and he was on pace for a career-high in overall points (71-point clip) before the regular season was suspended. Nylander ranked third on the Maple Leafs roster behind Matthews, and Mitch Marner with an xG rate of 53.5-percent. He also ranked in the 97^th-percentile in xGAR rate leaguewide.

Without a doubt, Nylander would immediately improve the Sabres’ top-six. If we’re operating in the scope of reality, however, Buffalo would have to pay a hefty return to outbid other interested parties from outside the division. That type of return will be tough to produce with the Sabres’ current lack of futures and cost-controlled assets in general.

4. Frederik Andersen | G | One-year, $5 million AAV

Anderson feels a bit obligatory here, but he’s a veteran netminder with one-year remaining, and that seems to be something Adams is searching for. There is no doubt that 2019-20 was a down season for the 30-year-old. Of the 30 netminders who played for a minimum of 2,000 minutes, he held the fifth-lowest GSAx rate at -19.63 on the year.

It’s only fair to note that goaltender metrics tend to fluctuate year-over-year, and this past season was by far the worst of his career in that regard. Toronto’s defensive corps certainly did him no favors, but the point remains that he is a $5 million AAV asset with just one year remaining, coming off a bad season at 30 years of age.

On top of that, Toronto doesn’t exactly have a very strong contingency plan behind him in 28-year-old Jack Campbell, which means their trade market price will likely be quite high. The only upside of this is the fact that the goaltender market is very saturated at the moment. That being said, Toronto has several other options in order to obtain much-needed cap relief, and the pressure to unload Andersen isn’t too great.

Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Hockeyviz, and Charting Hockey

Advanced Metrics and Teammate TOI Stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

Photo Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports