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Team Breakdown: Predators don’t offer a lot of favorable options to the Sabres

The Nashville Predators had a down season for their standards and were bounced by the Arizona Coyotes in the play-in round. They’re a team that is in a weird spot with an aging roster. The Stanley Cup window has likely closed for them, but general manager David Poile may not be ready to hit the reset button just yet.

They still have a lot of talent on the roster with Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, Filip Forsberg, and Viktor Arvidsson. The problem is they’re looking at a situation where they’ll have a lot of long term contracts on the books for aging players. Kyle Turris (31), Matt Duchene (29), Ryan Johansen (28), Ryan Ellis (29), and Roman Josi (30) all have at least four more years remaining on their contracts.

As such, this is a situation where the team in question doesn’t offer a lot of favorable trade targets. The point of this exercise, however, is to break down realistic trade targets for each team whether they’re good or bad.

Predators Offseason Outlook

2020-21 Projected Cap Space (via Cap Friendly): $9.2 million

Key Restricted Free Agents: None

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: Mikhael Granlund and Craig Smith

Projected Needs: Scoring

Trade Targets

1. Nick Bonino | C | Age 32 | One-year, $4.1 million

The best option on the Predators may be Nick Bonino. The veteran makes sense as a short-term solution for the Sabres at center. With only one year remaining on his deal, they wouldn’t be tied to a player at the tail end of his career.

You can see in the twins RAPM model above that Bonino is still a solid two-way center and was on pace for one of the most productive years of his career. Looking at Evolving Hockey’s expected goals above replacement model there is a slight decrease in impact, but he remains a well above average forward at this point.

He can be that bridge-center that fits with Jeff Skinner or Dylan Cozens next season. Bonino is also a veteran with Stanley Cup rings that will bring winning experience to the locker room.

2. Ryan Johansen | C | Age 28 | Five-years, $8 million

To be honest, Johansen may be at the top of the list of worst acquisition ideas in the offseason. Not only is his contract a concern, but he’s on working on three years of decline according to Evolving Hockey’s expected goals above replacement model.

I’m not going to spend a lot of time here. If you want more on Johansen, I wrote an in-depth piece about him last month that you can read here.

3. Kyle Turris | C | Age 31 | Four-years, $6 million

The Predators are probably going to put a focus on trying to dump Turris this offseason. He’s declining rapidly and having another four years on his contract is less than ideal. You can see below in Micah McCurdy’s isolated impact chart that he’s a liability at both ends of the ice.

The only way that the Sabres can even consider Turris is if the Predators are willing to eat 50% of his salary and a prospect comes along with him in the deal. At a $3 million cap hit you may be able to make Turris work in the right role for another year or two.

Turris should only be considered, in my opinion, if the Sabres are striking out all over the place at center and need to find something to ensure Dylan Cozens isn’t forced into a role he’s not ready for.

4. Eeli Tolvanen | Winger | Age 21 | One-year, $894K

As I mentioned, if the Sabres want to entertain the idea of taking on the contract of a player like Turris, they need to get a prospect that is close to NHL-ready. That’s where Eeli Tolvanen enters the picture. The 21-year-old Finn has failed to meet expectations to this point after a strong D+1 season.

He still has talent and ability that is worth taking a flyer on. Especially for a team like the Sabres that are lacking high-end talent in their prospect group.

Tolvanen has a great shot and there’s nothing wrong with taking a gamble on shooting talent.

Data via: Byron Bader, Evolving Hockey, Hockeyviz.com, and Cap Friendly
Photo Credit: John Russell/NHLI via Getty Images
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