The Buffalo Sabres under Jason Botterill will continue their search to find a second-line center behind Jack Eichel. This will be their third offseason looking to fill their need and it may be Botterill’s last crack at it.

One name that has come up in conversations amongst Sabres fans is Ryan Johansen of the Nashville Predators. After a down year, the Predators could be looking to make some changes to their roster and free up cap space.

Johansen was sort of the poster boy for the Predators season overall. He had the worst year of his career in terms of production and overall impact on the game. The 27-year-old center has some offensive traits in his game that make him an intriguing idea.

Player Breakdown

Johansen is a big body center that has scored at a 55 points per 82 games average for his career. The Sabres need to add size to their lineup that can also be an impactful player. They would check that off with Johansen. He gets to the front of the net and knows how to protect the puck from defenders on the wall.

The offensive impact that he provides is through his ability to distribute the puck. He doesn’t shoot the puck often and his individual shot quality (ixG) is among the lowest on the Predators over the last three years at 5 on 5, according to Moneypuck. Having said that, his on-ice shot quality is near the top of the league. Over the last three seasons, he’s 39th among all forwards to play at least 300 minutes in on-ice shot quality (xGF/60) at 5 on 5, according to Evolving Hockey.

So, let’s breakdown why we see this variation between his individual and on-ice shot quality. It’ll also give us a better idea of the player that Johansen is.

You’ll see below in Micah McCurdy’s individual impact chart that Johansen is an average player offensively, but still positively contributes to goal impacts.

This tells me that his primary linemates over the last three years in Viktor Arvidsson and Filip Forsberg are the play drivers on that line. That doesn’t mean that Johansen is just along for the ride.

Where he provides his impact on the offense is through his puck distribution. His primary shot assists (A1/60) are among the best in the NHL at 5 on 5. His vision and strong passing ability make him a solid complementary piece for the two elite scoring wingers. That’s a reason why you see the positive impact on scoring in Micah’s chart above.

Sean’s chart above also gives you a glimpse into his transition ability. He’s good at exiting the zone with possession, but his linemates appear to do the heavy lifting with zone entries. Johansen has a long stride and is more of a straight line skater. He doesn’t have a lot of shiftiness in his skating, but when he does pick up speed coming through the neutral zone he can be a threat on the rush.

The Problem

The primary issue with the idea of acquiring Johansen is his contract. That brings this discussion to a full stop. He’s owed $8 million a year for the next five years. That’s a big commitment to a player that will turn 28 at the end of July and isn’t an elite level player at either end of the ice.

Combine that with the fact that he’s on year three of a gradual decline when you look at Evolving Hockey’s expected goals above replacement model (xGAR).

He’s better than the 43-point player he played this season, but he still isn’t worth the investment that the contract would require. The Sabres could find cheaper options that are younger and give the same type of offensive impact with the defensive shortcomings of Johansen.

If Johansen’s contract carried a lower annual average value or even had less term, an argument could be made to explore this type of move. With the uncertainty of the future salary cap and inconsistency of the player, the Sabres would be wise to look elsewhere to fill this need.

Data via Hockeyviz.com, Evolving Hockey, Charting Hockey, and Moneypuck