The Buffalo Sabres’ goaltending situation has been a topic of debate for some time. An already convoluted problem had another wrinkle thrown in this week when Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News reported that backup netminder, Carter Hutton was struggling with vision problems for a majority of the season. Reportedly, said ailment adversely impacted his ability to track the puck.

There’s a lot to unpack here. The first question that should come to mind is why the Sabres didn’t pursue another option if they were aware of this issue, especially when Linus Ullmark went down with a lower-body injury that kept him sidelined for over a month. Perhaps now the possibility of Hutton playing out the final year of his contract in Buffalo becomes a little more real (if it wasn’t already).

That’s not to say that Jason Botterill won’t look for an upgrade in net, but if the right acquisition isn’t there, he may not feel as much urgency in that area. Obviously, there is no way to pinpoint the extent to which Hutton’s vision problems affected his game, but let’s take a look at just how much of a dropoff we saw from the 33-year-old in 2019-20 compared to the year prior.

It almost goes without saying, but this past season was objectively the worst campaign of his seven-year NHL career. Of the 48 goaltenders who played for at least 1,500 minutes in 2019-20, only five of them had a lower GSAX rate than Hutton. Under the same criteria, only seven allowed a higher rate of rebounds-per-shot. For comparison sake, Ullmark was a polar opposite in that regard, posting the fifth-best leaguewide rebound rate.

An argument can be made that Hutton was one of the bottom-five goalies in the NHL last season. There isn’t a single redeeming metric to be found in his numbers, underlying or otherwise. The 2018-19 season was a bit of a different story, but maybe not to the extent some believe. Of course, there was a year-over-year dropoff, but not enough of one to be comfortable with him in the rotation next year, even if he is able to re-attain that form.

Last season, Hutton’s GSAx of -12.12 was only slightly better than this year’s mark of -14.61. In terms of where he ranked among his peers from a year-over-year basis, his 2018-19 GSAx rate was once again the sixth-lowest in the league (among starting netminders). One thing to consider here is that Buffalo’s new preventative style of play under Ralph Krueger should have helped things. In that regard, the delta becomes more concerning. On top of that, he had a much smaller workload in 2019-20, which should have helped too.

Overall, Hutton’s 2018-19 campaign was that of a below-average (but not awful) starter. While Ullmark displayed a substantial year-over-year improvement, the jury is still out as to whether or not he can handle a lion’s share of the starts moving forward. The Sabres need a solid insurance policy. Even with perfect 20/20 vision, they would be wise to pursue an upgrade over Hutton this offseason.

So, what are Botterill’s options? Even if he manages to get Hutton off the books (easier said than done), or just ends up waiving him, where does he go from there? Without knowing his intentions, there appear to be two logical courses of action he could take. He could either look to fill the gap in free agency, or explore the trade market.

That might sound pretty obvious, but Botterill needs to be careful. The Sabres are already low on moveable assets, and spending one on a goaltender could take away from their ability to address their needs at forward via trade. Compounding on that issue, their salary cap situation is fickle, and shelling out big money for someone like Jacob Markstrom on the UFA market would also be unwise.

We’ll start by analyzing the free-agent possibilities. Overall, the goalie market appears to be very thin. Unless Botterill plans to overpay for a player like Markstrom, there are very few cost-effective options. The one that sticks out as having the highest “bang for your buck” potential is San Jose Sharks netminder, Aaron Dell.

Looking at their respective performances, it’s very surprising that the Sharks elected to give Martin Jones more starts than Dell last season. While their base numbers aren’t vastly different, the underlying metrics show that Dell was far superior.

Going back to the same 48-goalie sample criteria we mentioned earlier, Dell ranked right in the middle, posting the 24th ranked GSAx mark of the group. As illustrated in the above chart, his GSAx/60 rate was very average despite having a demonstrably more difficult workload that Jones.

Dell also played a very similar amount of time as both Hutton and Ullmark (1,835 minutes on the year). Given the xGA rate that the Sharks allowed in front of him (and his subsequent results), a strong argument can be made that he out-performed both of them by a pretty significant margin.

Given the recent history of what goalies with similar base statistics command on the open market, we can expect Dell to receive something close to a $2-2.5 million AAV contract on a short-term deal. That would actually be less than Hutton’s current cap hit of $2.75 million.

As for the trade landscape, there are a handful of options Botterill could consider. One of the popular names out there is Matt Murray of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Following a year where he was largely outplayed by Tristan Jarry, the Penguins could look to deal his RFA rights this offseason.

The fact that Murray is coming off a down year statistically is a double-edged sword. The cost to acquire him could be very reasonable as a result, however, it could be a sign that his early career success isn’t something he’ll be able to replicate with any consistency.

Last season, no other NHL netminder faced a lower xGA rate, but somehow Murray ended up with the second-worst GSAx/60 at -.618. In 2018-19, he was perfectly average among his fellow starters with a GSAx/60 of .027. That’s a big dropoff when you consider how well the Pittsburgh defense suppressed opportunities-against.

Another name that has bounced around the rumor mill is New York Rangers goalie, Alexandar Georgiev. At 24 years old, it appears that he is ready for a chance at starting role in the NHL, but with the emergence of Igor Shestyorkin in the Big Apple, he too could be a prime trade candidate.

Georgiev will have a crowded market for his services, and the asking price from New York will likely be high. During the season, the Rangers were rumored to be looking for a first-round pick (and then some) in return. While he is young and looks to be hitting his stride, for the Sabres’ situation it might not make a whole lot of sense.

Though he would represent an upgrade, the acquisition cost could be steep. If Buffalo can make progress on offense next season, they could probably get away with a shorter-term solution, especially when you consider the current strength of their goaltending pipeline.

Ullmark is still young by goalie standards, and with both Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Erik Portillo in the system, paying substantial futures for a young netminder is a bad move, especially since Buffalo has so few tradeable assets. While neither one of them is a “sure thing” as a long-term NHL starter, neither is Georgiev.

For that reason, a proven, inexpensive asset like Dell (who would cost Buffalo nothing to acquire) is probably the best short-term option. He and Ullmark can serve in a rotational setup for the next year or two, and probably give the Sabres close to average goaltending. That way, the front office can use the precious few futures they do have to address greater needs up front.

Goaltending charts courtesy of Charting Hockey