The Montreal Canadiens are at a bit of a crossroads as an organization. After finishing the 2020-21 season as Stanley Cup runners-up, Montreal completed the 2021-22 campaign with only 55 standing points (last place in the NHL). With very little cap space at their disposal, it remains to be seen how they approach this offseason.

In general, the Canadiens are in an advantageous spot if they want to rebuild. Kent Hughes’ club currently possesses 11 draft picks in the first three rounds over the next two years, including the first-overall selection in 2022. For your average rebuilding team, that’s a great start.

What Hughes does in terms of managing his current roster will depend on whether or not he plans to make his club as competitive as possible while he continues to collect future assets. This is Montreal after all, and a Sabres-esque long-term teardown isn’t necessarily a viable option in that market.

With just under $2 million in cap space at his disposal, it will be interesting to see if Hughes tries to unload some of his more expensive veteran contracts. A lot of his plan probably depends on goaltender Carey Price’s status for the 2022-23 season. If he’s healthy, the Canadiens are more likely to try and compete. If not, a more aggressive rebuild seems to be the more plausible scenario.

Canadiens Offseason Outlook

2022-23 Projected Cap Space (via Cap Friendly): $1.923 million

Key Restricted Free Agents: Rem Pitlick (arbitration-eligible), Michael Pezzetta (arbitration-eligible), Kale Clague (arbitration-eligible), Alex Romanov (10.2C), Sam Montembeault (arbitration-eligible)

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: Tyler Pitlick, Mathieu Perreault, Laurent Dauphin, William Lagesson

Jeff Petry | RHD | Age 34 | Three years, $6.25 million AAV

Let’s start by acknowledging that the likelihood of Petry coming to Buffalo is slim. He’s a player with a No-Move Clause, and he’s probably only keen on joining a contender. Anything is possible, and since he’s the most likely cap casualty coming out of Montreal this summer, I would be remiss not to acknowledge him.

Without the aforementioned NMC, Petry would be the ideal cap weaponization addition for a team in the Sabres’ position. Though he’s a bit long in the tooth, he is still a capable top-four defenseman on the right side. Kevyn Adams’ team experience anything resembling a salary cap crunch until after his current contract expires, which is another theoretical plus-side to this idea.

From a mentorship standpoint, there aren’t many other conceivably available options that would serve as a better veteran counterpoint for one of the developing LHD in Buffalo. Amazingly, Petry’s xGF rate of 48.23% last season was the top mark on the Montreal blue line. Based on his career WAR timeline, there hasn’t been any age-related regression to speak of, even as he enters his mid-30s.

If the Sabres could squeeze just a couple more years of productivity out of him, he’d be one of the more tangibly useful “cap dumps” they could pursue this summer.

Paul Byron | LW | Age 33 | One year, $3.4 million AAV

We have a former Sabres on the list. Though he only spent eight games with the blue-and-gold during the 2010-11 season, Byron was selected by Buffalo in the sixth round of the 2007 NHL Entry Draft.

After producing just seven points in 27 games last season, Montreal could look to unload the final year of his contract. In addition to his lackluster counting stats, Byron’s underlying metrics are a mess. For that reason, the Sabres should only pursue him if the plan is to immediately waive his contract and let him serve as a veteran entity in the AHL.

If the Canadiens can unload Petry’s contract, they don’t need to trade Byron. Still, if they want to do anything other than simply re-sign their current group of RFA’s, they may need to move another contract. To my eye, Byron seems like a prime candidate.

Based on the contract and term, I’d expect a team like Buffalo would be willing to absorb his contract for a third-round pick (or equivalent value). Montreal has five of those over the next three years. Parting with one would be a palatable proposition, should they need some additional cap flexibility.

Alex Romanov | LHD/RHD | Age 22 | RFA

Those of you who listen to the Expected Buffalo Podcast know I like Romanov. At age 22, there is some “rawness” in his game that will require refinement, but I feel that he has the potential to become a modern, top-four defensive-defenseman.

Last season, he posted some mixed results with a multitude of different partners (over 120 ES minutes with five different partners). Still, he managed to post the second-best xGA mark on the Montreal blue line last season, second to only Brett Kulak. After spending a majority of the 2020-21 season with Kulak (where they posted outstanding underlying results as a pairing), his primary partners were David Savard, Ben Chiarot, and Chris Wideman in 2021-22.

Not exactly a great crop of veterans to help develop a young defensive entity. Despite this, he managed to post significant improvements in his defensive-zone metrics (though his offensive impacts took a hit).

From a Buffalo standpoint, the only real issue with this acquisition would be the lack of a solid veteran to pair with Romanov to help him refine his game. He has all the tools to reach his potential, but the results would be hard to achieve alongside someone like Henri Jokiharju on the Sabres’ third defensive pairing.

Still, there were rumblings that Adams had an interest in Romanov as a possible piece coming back in a Jack Eichel trade earlier in the 2021-22 season. If that interest remains, he could make another call about a young player who doesn’t seem to be held in high regard by the Canadiens coaching staff.

Closing Thoughts

Some of you might be wondering why names like Jonathan Drouin and Mike Hoffman were left off this list. To put it simply, the Sabres shouldn’t have any interest in an aging winger who could take ice time away from one of their up-and-coming youngsters.

As explained above, Romanov or Petry would fill a need on defense. Byron only makes sense because he could be easily waived or serve as a healthy scratch. Anything else coming out of Montreal wouldn’t be worth pursuing unless Hughes offers an exorbitant cap-dump compensation (which he likely wouldn’t, given his team’s position).

The only other name that would make sense out of Montreal is Jake Allen, but his fate is reliant upon Price’s health. If the Habs expect to be without Price for a good chunk of time next season, they’ll surely hang onto Allen to be their starter. If Price is healthy to start the year, however, that could change.

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