The Buffalo Sabres are through 10 games in the 2021 season. It’s still hard to get a firm grasp on what kind of team they are. We’re still dealing with a relatively small sample size in only 10 games. However, we are beginning to see some trends start to take place this season. Not only from a team standpoint but from an individual player view as well.

This club is fascinating to look at from a data standpoint. There are a handful of factors that lead you to believe that there is positive regression in store for this team. At the same time, there are data points that are concerning and may not lead to that uptick in production.

5 on 5 Data

The best way to explain how interesting this team is would be to dive into the numbers themselves and peel away the layers.

Starting from a high level, we see some differentiation at a team level between the actual 5 on 5 goal differential and expected goals. It’s actually a considerable difference. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Sabres are ranked 28th in the league in goal differential at 39.7% at 5 on 5. While they rank 14th in the NHL in expected goal differential at 50.3%.

This tells us that the Sabres are performing below expectations overall with the quality of shots they are getting and allowing. However, when you break it down, there is actually only one part of the expected goal differential that is showing potential for a distract change.

Defense/Goaltending

The numbers indicate that the Sabres could see positive regression in the number of goals they are giving up. Natural Stat trick ranks them 25th in the league in actual goals against at 5 on 5 with them surrendering 2.75 goals per 60 minutes. Their shot quality against (xGA/60), on the other hand, is ranked 12th in the league at 1.99 expected goals per 60 minutes.

Prior to the game against the New Jersey Devils yesterday, this difference between the numbers was more drastic. Evolving Hockey ranked the Sabres as the second-best team in the league in shot quality against at 5 on 5. They were sitting 19th in the league in actual goals against.

What’s leading to this drastic difference in the two data points? Goaltending.

Both Sabres’ goaltenders have not been good enough for this team at 5 on 5. Among all of the goaltenders that have been between the pipes this season Linus Ullmark ranks 54th and Carter Hutton is 51st out of 62 goalies in goals saved above expected, according to Evolving Hockey. If you break it down to “starters” and narrow the window to 100 minutes, Ullmark ranks 29th out of 34 qualifying goaltenders.

While in theory, PDO tells us that the Sabres should see some turnaround in their 5 on 5 save percentage that is ranked 26th in the league, that may not be the case. Nothing guarantees these two goaltenders are going to improve. While the team is doing a good job suppressing chances, it hasn’t mattered for them.

If the goaltending does improve, then there is definitely a positive regression coming from a defensive standpoint.

Offense

Offensively, the picture is different. The Sabres are ranked 23rd in goals for at 5 on 5 with them scoring 1.82 goals per 60 minutes. Unlike with their defensive data, we’re not seeing a drastic difference here. They sit 22nd in the league in shot quality for at 2.01 expected goals per 60 minutes.

Essentially the Sabres are scoring at expectation at 5 on 5 with the among of quality shooting opportunities they’re generating. The fact of the matter is they’re still not generating enough offensive quality with the improved scoring talent on the roster.

Is that a personnel issue or a system problem? We’ll save that discussion for another day.

Here’s where this gets interesting. While it says the Sabres are shooting essentially at expectation overall, their top scorers on the team are shooting below expectations. Therefore their top scorers could be in line for positive regression. That would mean more goals and more wins for the Sabres.

Taylor Hall, Jeff Skinner, and Jack Eichel are all shooting below 6% overall through 10 games. That just simply can’t continue. There is too much talent there for all three of those players to continue that level of shooting performance.

Skinner is shooting over two goals below expected at 5 on 5, which is the sixth-lowest in the league. Hall was shooting at 1.31 goals below expected going into the Devils series. That was good enough for the 10th-lowest among forwards to play at least 30 minutes at 5 on 5, according to Moneypuck.

While the overall data says based on the shot quality we shouldn’t expect much of an improvement in actual goal production unless shot quality improves; this individual player shooting data says otherwise. All three of these players specifically are in line for an uptick in their goal-scoring production based on the chances they’re seeing. Even if overall team shot quality remains the same.

You could argue that other players would then see a negative regression and it would cancel out. Well, that’s not necessarily the case. The only player shooting well above expectation is Curtis Lazar. All three of these players sliding back towards mean would outweigh a decline in Lazar’s production. Also, these three players have the shooting talent to outscore their expected goal total if they can get going.

Conclusion

Let’s bring this all back into the big picture of what this means for the team overall. I know this team has been all over the place through these 10 games. This is by no means a team that is perfect or one that should be in the playoffs.

Having said that, this is a hockey club that has dealt with some poor puck luck and has the third-lowest PDO in the league right now. There may not be a drastic swing of fortunes coming their way, but it’s hard to believe they’re not due for some luck. All of the information we went through paints a picture of a team that is going to start getting some puck luck soon or we’re going to be talking about a wild season of “not getting the bounces.”

Some teams can overcome this based on just raw talent alone. The Sabres, however, are not one of those teams. Their pathway to success is one that doesn’t leave much room for error. A lot has to go their way for them to be a playoff competitor in the East Division. Not getting the shooting luck or the saves will put them well out of the playoff picture.

This team has its flaws from a roster standpoint, but the data through 10 games is telling us this is an average team that has deserved a better fate in a few areas of the game. That’s why I remain optimistic about their chances to find consistent hockey and pile up points to be in the playoff discussion come April.

An average team, in this division, can pick up that fourth spot in the standings.

Data via: Moneypuck, Natural Stat Trick, and Evolving Hockey

Photo Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports