This isn’t going to be an analytics article per se. I’ll have some data points in here, but this is going to be more of a venting piece. Basically, my read of the Buffalo Sabres organization as I see it.

We released a podcast episode yesterday and it’s the same one we do every season. It’s our season is over episode and it only took 19 games this year. There have been a lot of hard years recently with the Sabres, but this one has been the most difficult for me.

Perhaps it’s that I genuinely believed this season would be different. It may also be that I’m just out of answers with this hockey club.

No Standard

We do this every single year with this team. We get to a point where things look bleak and there’s a brief window to attempt to patch the hole in the sinking ship. We’re in the moment right now for this season. The chances of them getting back into any type of playoff race are slim, but now is the time to do something if you want to be serious about winning.

However, we all know what’s going to happen. We’ve read this book five or six times. They’ll sit on their hands and wait. The team will continue to flounder and then in the offseason, they’ll make their changes.

There’s no standard for winning with this organization. They have proved it countless times. We can go back to Phil Housley being given a second full season. Playing Zach Bogosian a handful of games last year and it cost them important points at the end of the season to keep them out of the return to play.

This season it’s Kyle Okposo. An organization serious about winning wouldn’t let him continue to play every game just because he makes $6 million or wears a letter. The New York Islanders dispatched Andrew Ladd via waivers. The Boston Bruins moved on from David Backes. Even the Anaheim Ducks have a higher standard. They waived Adam Henrique a few days ago because they didn’t think he was good enough.

The Sabres will continue to play Okposo and Cody Eakin because what other options do they have? It’s not like they have a 22-year-old centerman sitting in the AHL that led Liiga in scoring before he came to North America. By the way, Arttu Ruotsalainen still ranks fourth in the Finnish pro league in goals. The player ahead of him by one goal (17) has played 39 games. Ruotsalainen only played 19 in Liiga this year.

It’s frustrating because when players have been forced into the lineup they’ve had success. It took a Covid-19 outbreak for Will Borgen to get into the lineup. He played so well they couldn’t take him out before he broke his forearm. Then Jacob Bryson gets an opportunity. He’s a high-event player, but he showed some promise. Ralph Krueger decides to take him for the “new energy” of Matt Irwin and Brandon Davidson.

We’ll get back to Krueger in a moment.

The Sabres lost their starting goaltender for at least a month. Will Kevyn Adams do anything about it or just let the opportunity pass like Jason Botterill decided to do last season? Alex Stalock was placed on waivers by the Minnesota Wild yesterday. He’s not the best option, but a serviceable goaltender to see if you can get a spark.

What about claiming the finishing ability of Brett Connolly? Perhaps a trade?

End of the Line for Krueger

How about firing the head coach? We’ve reached that point now after this weekend. Forget the daily deception/miscommunication or the handling of Jeff Skinner that rubbed some players the wrong way.

If you simply focus on the on-ice product, it’s clear this isn’t working. This roster is not built to play within this low-event system. There are too many offensively talented players on this team to be this bad offensively. Yes, part of this is bad luck, but we’re beyond that now. The Sabres sit at 1.32 goals per 60 minutes at 5 on 5. That’s the lowest goal for production per 60 minutes going back to at least the 2007-08 season. The closest team was the 2013-14 Sabres that finished with 1.46 goals for per 60 minutes at 5 on 5. They’re performing that much worse right now.

This weekend was an embarrassing display for this team and that’s saying a lot for this organization. Every single player on that club, with the expectation of Jonas Johansson, played poorly this weekend. I didn’t find one player impressive. That falls on the coach when it’s that bad.

The bread and butter of Krueger’s Sabres is one that can suppress scoring chances against. That’s not even happening anymore. Their defensive game has collapsed.

You can see the chart above from Moneypuck, how the shot quality against is skyrocketing. They’re not even league average anymore in shot quality against per 60 minutes. Their expected goal differential overall has gone into the tank as well. You can see that below in their rolling 10-game average.

Fork in the Road

The Sabres find themselves at a fork in the road right now. They have two paths they can basically take at this point, in my opinion. One path is to continue to push with this core and the other is to hit the reset button. I feel as though for the organization to choose the right path they need to know if the coach or the roster is the main issue.

Krueger has shown he’s a stubborn coach and will stick to his “principles.” We saw it last week with Skinner and we’ve heard him talk about it in interviews. On countless occasions he talks about players, including Eichel, playing within the confines of the system. Player x will have success if they just adhere to our principles and play within them is his belief.

The problem is these principles don’t work for this group. That is clear and it’s not suddenly going to change. If Krueger will not adjust to the strengths of his players, instead of pigeonholing them into playing his system, then this is the type of hockey we can expect moving forward if they won’t make a change.

We’ll see what happens, but I like said at the beginning, nothing will change. This organization refuses to get out ahead of anything. They always wait for the ship to sink before they try to save it. Why would this season be any different?

Data via: Moneypuck

Photo Credit: Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images