Now that the IIHF u18 World Championships are over it’s time to dive into the final assessments for the 2023 NHL draft class.

I currently work as the North American crossover scout for Smaht Scouting. I’ve been doing this publicly through Die By the Blade and other websites since 2017, and have been in junior rinks doing scouting work since 2010.

For the 2023 NHL draft, I believe it will boil down to draft philosophy for a lot of Sabres fans. With the past few drafts, we’ve seen the Sabres become a prospect juggernaut up front but with little depth on the backend. Last year was a draft that featured a lot of more talented defenders at the top of the draft. Alas, the Sabres went forward-heavy with their first three picks. This year there are a few defenders who should fall into the Sabres first-round draft pick range, however, the talent of this year’s draft is pretty heavily skewed to the forwards until the end of the first round.

Before we get into the draft rankings a couple of disclaimers:

1.) Pay attention to tiers and not ranks

Truthfully, I thought about getting rid of the numbered ranks next to the players altogether. The players are grouped in a manner that if you put the tier in a blender I could make a logical argument about the order they would come out in. While I am placing the players in how I would select them; the tiers system is meant to show the small gaps between players in case the Sabres select within the tier.

2.) I have predominantly focused on the North American prospects this year

My role at Smaht has led me to hyper-focus on the player playing in Canada and the United States this year. I lean on our European scouts to tell me who to watch for rankings, and then watch those players to determine where they fit within the large amount of North American players I have data on. I may be blind to players overseas who may be ranked by other scouting agencies based upon the evaluation of our scouts, but I do believe we have some of the best scouts when looking across the pond.

3.) I’m going to be wrong

Probably on a lot of prospects. With the vast majority of a draft class not making a case for NHL consideration until at least 3 years after they are drafted there’s a lot of nuance to the process. Disagree with me. It’s A-Okay! I’ve been working on scouting since 2010 and I still have much to learn.

4.) Understand my biases

I value players who keep control of the puck in transition. I like players who pass and shoot from dangerous parts of the ice. I value rush lane differentiation, small area skill/agility, and how players respond in pressure situations. I use a 9-category data tracking system to evaluate players offensively, and 3 categories defensively. I place less emphasis on skating mechanics, size, and physicality. I care more about how you operate when time/space is condensed and the plays that generate out of those situations. I deemphasize special teams and place a lot of time and notetaking at even strength. You may lean heavily into pNHLe or point production models, favor one league or another, or value size, physicality, and/or skating ability to a higher level than I do. It’s okay. We can differ. Just know the lens I’m coming from when I make these evaluations.

5.) These are rankings specific for the Sabres

My rankings are slightly different, but this is a Sabres community so I’ve made the rankings specific to the team. My rankings still have the same players in the same tiers, but there are a couple of players I’ve moved around given we have room to make some swings this year given the depth of the prospect pool.

6.) some omissions from this list are pretty high on consensus lists

This isn’t to mean that players like Oliver Bonk or Kasper Halttunen aren’t top 105 players in my eyes. It just means they are much farther down my list than consensus I don’t see a scenario where they are available for the Sabres to select.

7.) There is no consensus in the public sphere about team building for the NHL draft

This is what makes the NHL draft so much fun in my eyes, but also turns off casual fans to the NHL draft. Imagine if the NFL draft was conducted after high school. Go look at the ESPN Top 300 or the 247 college football rankings for this year. Then compare them to the NFL draft order 3 years later. That’s essentially the disadvantage NHL scouts are working with when projecting three to five years out from a draft.

There are also very few universal rules to the NHL draft compared to the NFL draft. We know which positions in football you draft high, which ones you can extract value from, and have a general idea of how to grade drafts using somewhat universal team-building philosophical arguments. Outside of the consensus that no one can predict which goalies are going to be great, there is no such team building philosophies in the NHL.

Over the last thirteen years I have established my own set of cardinal rules. There are always exceptions to these rules (which I plan on bringing up on the upcoming podcast with Anthony and Chad), but they are as follows:

• Never trade up.
• The early 2nd round usually has 5-10 players who I love. It’s a great place to live in the draft.
• Don’t draft a defenseman who doesn’t have power-play potential in the first round.
• When debating players: always go with the one with the elite trait (if applicable).
• After round 1 the forwards who usually hit big are either: undersized, wingers, or European. They are usually some combination of the three.
• Late round defensemen that hit are usually overagers who have played in a men’s league or in the NCAA.
• Consistent, high-end save percentages works out better than size for goalies.

Lastly, below is the current depth chart of my draft picks from 2019-present. It’s a nice snapshot into the types of players I chase and the overall depth I tried to build. In general though: I do not care about chasing team need when drafting. I’m just looking to get the best player available at each draft slot.

Without further adieu, let’s get into the rankings.

Tier 1: The Bedard Tier

• At this point there really is no debate for who is going number one in the 2023 NHL draft. The question that most people have is: is Bedard worth the hype? From an offensive standpoint, I haven’t seen a player come through the draft process like him in the past 5 years. His offensive transition involvement is over 60% over a five game sample size which has never been done. He’s the best shot generator per/60 I’ve ever tracked, and 28% of his pass attempts are intended to dangerous areas of the ice. Qualitatively speaking: his shot is bananas, his puck skill and confidence are elite, and he attempts, and is successful on, such complex plays that he’s eons ahead of his peers with his ability to generate quality scoring chances off his own stick.

• There is a caveat to Bedard though: you’re not drafting him to play defense. He doesn’t engage in the defensive end too often, and prefers to look for opportunities to push the puck to the offensive zone. His skating is very good, however at 5’10 he’s not going to blaze by people in the NHL nor is he physical enough to power through a defender by putting a shoulder down.

• Overall, he’s got so much in his arsenal offensively that whoever lands at number 1 takes him and lets him drive their offense. Whether or not he’s a center or wing doesn’t matter to me as the goal should be to get Bedard out in space and let him create.

Tier 2: The Hobey Baker Tier

• Fantilli was the best college hockey player in the nation this year as a draft eligible freshman and the first to win the Hobey Baker as a freshman since Jack Eichel. In most other draft years Fantilli would be a runaway first overall pick. He has great size, is a fantastic skater, some of the best hands in the class, and has a rocket of a shot. Before the World Juniors I had been tossing around the idea that Fantilli could overtake Bedard at some point this year, alas, Bedard slammed the door shut on that happening.

Tier 3: The Contenders for the #2 Pick

• Matvei Michkov is the one real contender for the number two pick based off of talent in my eyes. His progression in the KHL after he was loaned showed exactly why he and Bedard have been talked about for the better part of the past two years. His shot is elite, but it was his vision and utilization of space in a men’s league that really took off as the year went on. His skating isn’t high-end for an undersized player, but he makes up for it with elite tools and quick processing and scanning.

• Carlsson will most likely be the third pick in the draft. His size, skill, and ability to facilitate play is great for a forward of his stature. He’s not merely a power forward. Carlsson has deft hands and has puck skill of players much smaller than him. He’s hard on pucks and defensively aware. While I wonder if his footspeed and puck transporting ability translate to a first line center; he has all of the instincts that it’s not unreasonable to project him down the middle.

• Benson is first player that might deviate from the consensus of mainstream public scouts. Most see a concern with his size and NHL average straight line speed. I see a player that has been the engine of one of the best CHL hockey teams the past two years. Despite playing with Matthew Savoie and Conor Geekie; it has been Benson who I have been most impressed with these past two years. He possesses one of the best motors in the class, and is one of the best defensive players as well. He moves pucks around the ice with ease and has a lot of skill to create plays off his own stick. He’s the definition of a player that does everything extremely well, but whose concerns are more about size than style of play.

Tier 4: The Sabres First Round Tier

• If the Sabres go with a forward at pick 13, then it’s Oliver Moore that I’m chasing. My infatuation started this summer when I was doing some pre-Hlinka scouting. His skating is top-end and his ability to use his edges to create space and spin off of defenders is one of, if not the, best in this class. He has a great wrist shot and can beat goalies clean from distance. However, it was his dataset that solidified him as my favorite forward for the Sabres. He was a one-man transition king for the NTDP. He didn’t get to play on the superstar first line on the NTDP, but rather everything ran through him on the second line. He was also over a 58% involvement in offensive transitions with most of them off of carry-ins and carry-outs on his own stick. He sent almost a quarter of his passes to dangerous areas of the ice, and he was the one forward on the NTDP whose game translates the best to play down the middle. He’s the perfect third line center on a Cup contending team, but also has the offensive potential to play in the top six as needed.

• If there is one defenseman in this draft who has consistently shown they could play top line minutes and run a power play it’s been Axel Sandin Pelikka. While he doesn’t possess the size of Reinbacher or Simashev; ASP has impressed at every level he’s played at. He shows apt deceptiveness at the blue line with plenty of puck skill to be able to dance around defenders. He utilizes space well and attacks space to create more dangerous passing angles and scoring chances. He also will defend against top junior competition and wasn’t a slouch defending in the SHL as well. He may not be as pro-ready as Reinbacher, but I believe he possesses the highest potential ceiling of any defender in the draft.

• Gavin Brindley has my heart. He’s barely 5’9, but I find it extremely hard to find fault in his game. He’s a great skater with a two-way motor that makes him projectable up and down the lineup. He was involved in over 47% of Michigan’s offensive transitions. For comparison’s sake: he played on a line with Fantilli for most of the second half of the season and Fantilli was at 37%. If there is a reason he falls behind Oliver Moore it’s simply because he’s currently physically under-developed and the lack of strength has him get pushed off pucks going into the inside more than I’d like to see. If you’d bet that 15-20 pounds of muscle over the next 2-3 years will make him an inside threat then he could be the steal of the draft when looking back at this draft when his career is done.

• Reinbacher is physically ready for a leap to North American hockey. He possesses the size, the offensive awareness, and the skating to keep up in the AHL or NHL. His offensive game is more about space utilization and creating scoring opportunities through getting shots through screens, but he does flash the ability to do more offensively from the blue line. I see a potential top 4 defender who could develop into a power play quarterback.

• Cristall is a homerun swing and in my personal rankings slots in at #8. No forward has attempted more passes than Cristall has completed in my data set. He’s the premier playmaker coming out of North America. His skating mechanics are good, but his overall top speed doesn’t allow much separation from defenders. He is the last one back into the zone and will fly the defensive zone chasing offense. He’s either going to make a team extremely happy or find himself an AHL all-star.

• Danielson is a do-it-all center who had very little offensive support. He flashes very good skill, is responsible defensively, and gets to scoring areas at a very good clip for my dataset. However, he was a low volume passer as a center and I question whether or not he can be the primary distributor on a top 6 line.

• Ryan Leonard is a daft power forward. He utilizes brute strength to get to the front of the net and his puck distribution skills have improved tremendously throughout the season. He possesses a great shot and has the puck skill to go end-to-end and doesn’t need a puck distributor to generate his offense. He’s still a little undersized for his style of play, but he is perhaps one of the more projectable players in the first round.

Tier 5: Personal Favorites

• Jayden Perron is one of my favorite players in this draft and may be available for the Sabres in the second round given his size. His passing metrics came in behind Andrew Cristall as one of the best playmakers in this class generating an average of 21 completed passes a game with 31%(!) going to dangerous areas of the ice. His offensive transition involvement rate of 48% was impressive, and he was successful on 83% of his transition attempts. His size limits his dangerous shot attempts, but the North Dakota’s skill on the perimeter makes him one of the more fun players to watch in the draft.

• The Hamburg, NY native, Quentin Musty really turned his game around from the Hlinka to the end of the year. At the Hlinka you saw a very individualistic player who refused to utilize teammates and chased big hits and gave up positioning. After a coaching change in Sudbury Musty began to flourish. In three games tracked after the coaching change he had a 46% offensive transition involvement, 25% of his passes went to dangerous areas of the ice, and was among the top 10 shot generators in the class. His skating is still a hinderance when projecting him at an NHL level pace, but the physicality, skill, and ability to drive play really blossomed as the year went on.

• I pounded the table at the preliminary rankings at Smaht to get Sawchyn in the top 25 and he’s continued to show why he’s a first round talent all year. His pace of play is about NHL average or slightly below, but his motor is non-stop. He’s all over the ice offensively and defensivly. He has great hands and skill and makes passing plays that very few can make in this class. He plays for a powerhouse WHL club and has carved out a top 9 role for the Seattle Thunderbirds. He’s averaged considerably less even strength ice time then his counterparts in the first round (10:22 on average) in my viewings, but is a prolific passer and is a primary puck transporter on a stacked line (42.7% offensive transition involvement).

• What version of Eduard Sale will I get in the NHL? Will I get the u18 and Hlinka version of Sale that can generate scoring chance after scoring chance despite the top nations throwing out their best defensive unit on him all game? Or will I get the Sale that could look disinterested for long stretches of a game when he played in the men’s league? There’s no denying there’s oodles of offensive talent , but will he hit his full potential as he transitions to North America?

• Billy Whitelaw is a personal favorite. He was outstanding last year at Shattuck when playing with 2024 top picks Macklin Celebrini and Cole Eiserman. He is undersized but he’s a pest. He’ll hit, he’ll get under your skin, and has high end skill and skating ability. However, he continues to be a shoot first player and his impatience leads to low danger shot attempts instead of using that skill and speed to create dangerous passing plays. I’d bet on Whitelaw all day, but his size and decision making could play against him come draft day.

• I could write a dissertation on Gabe Perreault at this point. He broke the NTDP scoring record held by Auston Matthews, yet he is only my 22nd ranked prospect? There were times he was pushing the top 15 in my rankings and times where he wasn’t in my top 45. It comes down to this: the Smith/Leonard/Perreault line was the best junior line in hockey this season. It’s perhaps the best junior line I’ve scouted next to the Hughes/Zegras/Caufield line. They complimented each other perfectly. Perreault was the glue of the line. He is perhaps one of the best off-puck players offensively in this draft. He’s crafty at using his hands to create passing lanes. His one touch passes could have a 4 minute highlight reel themselves. However, when the pace of play picks up his skating can take him out of the game. He becomes an ancillary player instead of a play driver. There is no player I feel less unsure about ranking than Perreault in this entire class. I’ll bet that he continues to figure out how to stay involved in the offensive game even if space is taken away from him, but the uncertainty drove him down my rankings.

• Dvorsky/Yager/Ritchie/Barlow/Wood/Honzek. I know I’m a lot lower on them than consensus. I know that all of them are probably top 15 picks in the NHL draft. I just see them all as NHL players who will contribute as passengers at the NHL level. None of them are above a 35% offensive transition involvement rate, and none are passing the puck or generating scoring chances for others close to the ones ranked above them, but most of them have a desirable NHL trait. Dvorsky is physically mature with a heavy wrist shot, Yager has one of the best shots in the class, Ritchie has size and flashes skill, Barlow is a banger who buries the puck, Wood has size, hands, a decent shot but struggles with pace, and Honzek is a prototypical power forward.

Tier 6: Lots of upside but lots of risk, or high floor/low ceiling

• The BCHL doesn’t have a great track record of their top point producers translating to scoring roles in the NHL, however, Brad Nadeau has physical tools that are undeniable. He’s a fantastic scorer who is a plus skater, involved in over 55% of their offensive transitions and sent over 36% of his passes to dangerous areas of the ice.

• If there’s a player in the second round I’m most likely higher on than most it’s Beau Akey. He took a backseat to Brandt Clarke once he came back to the OHL and thus diminished his power play time and suppressed his point totals. What makes Akey so intriguing is his ability to generate offense by carrying the puck out of the defensive zone and his awareness as a passer to hit players all over the offensive zone. He’s the only player to attempt >35 passes in a game and complete >90% of them. He moves up into the zone to take his shot. He can have defensive lapses and his gap control can get away from him at times, but he’s a great high-upside pick in the late second-third round.

• If we pass on an RHD in the first then I’m praying for Willander. A sound defensive defenseman who showcased very good offensive ability when playing with his peers in the u20 level and the u18s. His stock is rising as of late in the public sphere, but he’s the type of swing I’d like the Sabres to make with their first pick in the second round.

• Kalan Lind hits anything that moves and has the offensive tools to play up in a lineup. Luca Pinelli was a high-motor, high-skill winger for the 67s that popped every time I watched them play. Tanner Molendyck is one of the best skaters in the draft class whose offensive game progressed every game I tracked. If Denver Barkey grew two inches he’d be a sure-fire first-round pick for me. He’s the OHL version of Gavin Brindley.

• Lukas Dragicevic recently started playing defense when he was in Bantam, and boy do I think he’d be a pretty good forward in the WHL as well. He was allowed to do whatever he wanted offensively this past year for Tri-City which led to a pretty impressive offensive highlight reel in my video collection. Unfortunately, I also have too many clips of defensive lapses and a lack of engagement in the defensive zone. There’s no denying his offensive skill, but I am very cautious about his offensive game making up for his defensive game when considering his overall impact on an NHL team.

Tier 7: Ideal late-2nd round to 4th round Picks

• Etienne Morin in the offensive zone is fantastic. Etienne Morin trying to escape the pressure or making a pass under the threat of being hit was cringeworthy. I could get behind both Dragicevic and Morin as a fun, second-round swing. However, there will most likely be plenty of players I like more than those two to take the risk.

• Quinton Burns was on pace to becoming a mainstream name given that he was the most consistent defender for Canada in the u18s before his injury. He was a highly involved, defensively sound LHD for Kingston this past year in the OHL. He won’t ever run a power play, but he could project to a top-four if all goes right for an NHL team.

• Tanner Adams as a puck transporter is a dream. He was over 43% offensive involvement with a 79% success rate. He facilitates play so well, is defensively responsible, but had some of the worst puck luck I’ve seen while tracking a player. The Providence College commit could take a full three years to hit an offensive output that puts him on the NHL’s radar in college, but I like his game enough to bet on him.

• Tanner Ludtke is a player that rarely gets mentioned in the public sphere. The 6’0 forward can look a bit awkward in his skating mechanics and his pace of play is a question mark. However, he plays the game so well. He’s very involved as a one-touch puck transporter, is one of the top shot generators in the USHL in my data set, and has enough skill that his pace doesn’t hinder him from making plays. The University of Nebraska-Omaha hasn’t produced much in terms of NHL talent recently, but I have a hard time leaving him off my list given his productivity.

• Andrew Strathmann is a cowboy. Andrew Strathmann plays like he’s Cale Makar but without Makar’s skating ability. His skill and what he tries is mesmerizing. When he takes risks and it works he looks like a first-round talent. When he takes risks and it fails…it fails spectacularly. If you like Jacob Bryson but want a bit more offensive upside he’s your guy.

• Ryan Fine is the most underrated forward on the NTDP. He’s a great puck transporter and has great skill, his high school highlight reel is insane, and at times was the best player on the Moore/Terrance/Fine line at the u18s. He was stuck on the third line for much of the year at the NTDP in a checking role, but at Harvard, he should assume a scoring role as soon as this year given their departures.

• #68 was cut off: Aram Minnetian. He’s the one player on the NTDP that rose from unranked to just outside my third round. He’s always been a fantastic skater, but he showed a great progression in his ability to transport the puck from the beginning of the year. Given that he also started to activate with deception the last month as well: he’s a player I feel like I might be too low on that could end up being a much higher draft pick or a serviceable NHL player who gets picked in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Tier 8: The Last Tier I’d Be Really Happy Drafting From

• Griffin Erdman had an excellent Hlinka camp and then was a noticeable player at the tournament as well. His dataset showed a very good puck transporter in the USHL as well as a sneaky good shot generator and playmaker. The Northeastern commit plays a strong two-way game and is a player that I think will turn heads in his D+2 season once he establishes himself in an offensive role.

• Carter Sotheran was the Mattias Samuelsson to Luca Cagnoni’s Dahlin performance this past year. He played a very conservative role and allowed Cagnoni to jump into any rush he wanted. Most likely falling into the mid-rounds; Sotheran is a player that’s on my short list of players I’ll be targeting who I think can fill some of the defensive holes in the prospect pool.

• Anyone highlighted in red is an overager in this year’s draft. Cole Knuble was drafted by me last year and was among the best USHL forwards this past year. Erik Pohlkamp took a while for me to warm up to but his offensive game really stood out and he was also named USHL Defenseman of the Year. Zaccharaya Wisdom has the speed, motor, and scoring ability to be a quality fourth-liner on a playoff team.

• Larry Keenan was a smooth-skating, big RHD who also has a cannon from the point. He’s a bit raw in his offensive game and his defensive game was never challenged in my viewings. However, he’s my top prep/HS player coming into this year’s draft.

• Aiden Fink has loads of offensive talent and a statistical profile that warrants a mid-round selection, but his size and lack of explosive skating will keep him from climbing my board. With quicker agility and more deception laterally I believe he could make the leap to the NHL.

Tier 9: Trey Fix-Wolansky Candidates

• Every year I fall in love with some obscure Prep/HS player and this year that player was Francesco Dell’Elce. St. Andrew’s out of Canada has probably the most dominant high school team in prep this year and two of their players have landed in this tier. Dell’Elce was a deft skater, with loads of talent and skill to move up into the offensive zone. He generated a lot of offense himself off his own stick and the UMass commit could make some noise once Scott Morrow vacates the top power play spot.

• Gavyn Thoreson did nothing but light the lamp this entire season. After nearly putting up a 100-point season in Minnesota high school hockey he went to the USHL where he was a point-per-game player. He’s small without an elite set of wheels. However, every time he’s on the ice he finds a way to make things happen and end up on the scoresheet. The St. Cloud State commit could end up being a player many teams wish they had taken the late-round swing on this time next year.

• Finn Brink was a name I was surprised didn’t make the Hlinka team last summer. I kept coming back to him day after day and finding myself impressed with his skill level and ability to seemingly always have the puck on his stick in a scoring area. I didn’t catch any of his high school hockey, but his USHL tape was pretty impressive for a player who transitioned late in the season. He’ll most likely spend a full year with the Madison Capitols next year in the USHL before transitioning to the University of Wisconsin in 2024.

• Ty Hanson is nifty. He was injured for a bit this season and struggled to find a scoring role, but I always enjoyed it when the puck was on his stick. He’ll most likely go undrafted this year and will return to the USHL before going to the University of Minnesota-Duluth, but for a team sitting in the seventh round, he’d be a fun dart throw to see if he progresses and develops like I think he could.

• Anselmo Rego’s first game I put on he scored a goal and then threw one of the biggest checks I’ve seen in a game this entire season. He was a puck hound, always pressuring the puck and creating turnovers and then turning around creating scoring chance after scoring chance. On one of the best prep teams I watched this year; he was their best forward. He’ll join fellow teammate Dell’Elce with the Penticton Vees in the BCHL next year before heading to college. I will be somewhat shocked if he isn’t one of the league’s more prominent players.