Of all the things that have improved in the second half of the season for the Buffalo Sabres, their ability to generate more offensive opportunities may be the most impressive. To start the season, they were one of the worst teams in the league generating quality chances at 5 on 5. Since the middle of January, we’ve seen a big improvement in their shot quality at 5 on 5.

They’re still slightly below league average in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60), but they’ve moved out of the league basement in this statistic. It has allowed them to remain competitive with some of the best teams in the league.

There are a handful of reasons for the improvement. A few players have impacted the club positively in regards to their offense. The most interesting thing may be team development over the year in their ability to create offense outside of on the rush.

Team Numbers

I wanted to try to get two snapshots in time of a similar bucket of games to showcase how this club has improved offensively. I decided to split the season between before January 15th and after. Using that date does at least give a few games of Alex Tuch in that first window to make it as close to an apples-to-apples comparison.

In the first half of the season, the Sabres put an expected goals output at 5 on 5 of 1.94 per 60 minutes, according to Evolving Hockey’s model. That ranked them 31st in the league, just ahead of the Arizona Coyotes. Since January 15th, that registered a 2.23 xGF/60 at 5 on 5, which is good enough for 27th in the league. We’re not talking about some kind of major shift, but this is still a good sign of growth in this roster.

When you break the data down to the level of quality per shot attempt, you get a clear picture of the improvement. In the first half of the year, they recorded a .052 expected goal rating per unblocked shot attempt at 5 on 5. In the second half, it improved to .059 in the twins’ model. This doesn’t seem like a big jump but it is. However, the visualization below puts the change into perspective. The red dot represents the first half quality per unblocked shot by team and the gray dot represents that rating in the second half.

That .052 rating was the worst in the league through January 14th. The .059 rating jumped them up to 20th in the league since January 15th. This is a clear connection between the data and your eyes. Games have become more exciting with higher quality chances in the second half of the year.

In terms of actual scoring at 5 on 5, they’ve improved from 2.19 goals scored per 60 minutes to 2.36. Now, the interesting part with these numbers is that both rank them 23rd in the league. It appears the league overall has seen a scoring increase in the second half of the season.

Alex Tuch

The most obvious change between the first and second half of the season is the addition of Alex Tuch. His impact on their team offensively has been substantial.

You can see this impact in Micah McCurdy’s isolation chart above. Not only has he brought production, but he has solidified the Sabres’ top six by establishing a true top line. He has been an instrumental part of their improved cycle game and forechecking, which we’ll get to in a bit.

Defensemen

Another factor at the player level has been two defensemen bringing an impact from the blue line. Mattias Samuelsson joined the club in the second half of the year. The big defender was known more for his strong defensive game in the AHL, but he has also brought some offense. Samuelsson’s even-strength offense per 60 minutes is the second-highest on the team among defensemen in the twins’ goals above replacement model.

The other defenseman that has contributed to the change is Rasmus Dahlin. He has been excellent for the Sabres since January. He’s becoming that player that we were hoping for when he was selected first overall in 2018.

His on-ice xGF/60 has improved from a 1.86 in the first half of the season to 2.52 since January 15th. The chart below from Moneypuck showcases on a 10-game rolling average how he began his turnaround once the calendar flipped to 2022.

The defense as a whole has seen a reduction in their shot attempts per 60 minutes and an improvement in their shot quality. The individual shot attempts per 60 minutes for defensemen have decreased from 7.76 to 6.69. The shot quality increased from 0.13 to 0.14. This tells us that defensemen are shooting less and from areas of higher quality. Logically, it would signal a reduction in point shots.

Cycle Game

We’re seeing this change in shooting tendencies for the blueliners because of how the team has improved their cycle game. Defensemen are more active in the cycle moving around the zone as opposed to being relatively stationary in the first few months of the season.

The Sabres were a club that relied heavily on their transition game to generate offense. They were unable to establish a forecheck and maintain offensive zone possession. It was very much a one-and-done offensive game.

However, as of late, we’ve seen them evolve to add a forecheck game to their offensive toolset. We’re seeing it come through in the numbers and the video. In Corey Sznajder’s tracking data, the Sabres improved their shots off the cycle per 60 minutes from 0.90 before January 1st to 1.05 after. Their forecheck pressures at 5 on 5 per 60 minutes have gone 1.99 to 2.64.

Let’s take a look at two video clips to give you a visual example. This first one is Tage Thompson’s goal against the Nashville Predators. It starts with a forecheck pressure from Tuch and then a cycle along the wall to get Thompson open in the slot.

This next clip is a long offensive zone sequence against the Chicago Blackhawks. Not only do the Sabres generate a cycle, but watch the defensemen. They’re aggressive pinching down to defend the offensive blue line. You’ll also see the rotate around the zone and be utilized in the cycle.

It’s good to see this team evolve and improve in key areas down the final stretch of the season. The offensive output was something that I worried about under Don Granato. I was afraid that they were going to be a one-trick pony in their reliance on rush offense. Seeing him get his club to mix up their attack is promising for the future.

Data via: Evolving Hockey, Moneypuck, Hockeyviz.com, and Corey Sznajder