Well, they’re back. No, I don’t mean the team is back because they beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-1 last night. I mean the high-event Buffalo Sabres have returned. We saw this style first make its appearance under Don Granato at the end of last season when he took over for Ralph Krueger.

After some glimpses here and there throughout the season, they’ve found their high-event style once again. They are starting to generate more offense, but at the same time, we’re seeing them give up more quality defensively.

Trending Up

We can start by looking at Micah McCurdy’s model to get a good visual of how rapidly the team has begun to ascend in shot quality for and against for the last month or so.

The focus here would be on the smoothed 5v5 xG/60 chart. We can see that around December the Sabres’ offense went into a lull as they were beginning to give up more quality against. Then in January they began to rebound and have continued to do so. That coincides with the addition of Alex Tuch to the lineup and I don’t think that’s a coincidence.

We can look at Moneypuck’s model to get another visual on a 10-game rolling average focusing on expected goals for (offense). We can see below how they took off in January and have become a middle-of-the-pack club over the last month in generating offense at 5 on 5.

According to Evolving Hockey, the Sabres rank 16th in the NHL in expected goals for per 60 minutes since the All-Star break. In their model the 10 of the Sabres’ top xGF/60 games, seven have happened since January 20th. Four of their top five have come since February 13th.

Now, on the flip side, the quality given up to their opponent has remained high, as you’ll see below in Moneypuck’s visual.

In the twins’ model, since the All-Star break, the Sabres have the fourth-highest expected goals against per 60 rating at 5 on 5. They’ve improved to nearly a 47% expected goal share team (46.73%) since the break, but giving up more than they’re creating will probably keep them around that 47% number.

What Changed?

So, what changed for them to show this much of an improvement over the last month? Well, the obvious answer is they’re starting to get more healthy. They’ve had their key players return to the lineup for a significant stretch of games and Granato has been able to put together three lines finally that are well balanced. We saw what that well-balanced lineup is capable of against the Leafs last night.

Another big factor, as I mentioned above, is the addition of Alex Tuch. He has solidified the Sabres top line and has been a huge impact on generating offense at 5 on 5, as you’ll see below in Evolving Hockey’s RAPM chart.

Another change we’re seeing is the play of Rasmus Dahlin. It appears he has put his struggles behind him and is starting to impact the team at both ends of the ice. Most importantly, we’re seeing him become a factor offensively.

Over the last month, Dahlin leads all Sabres defensemen in expected goal share and expected goals for at 5 on 5 in Evolving Hockey’s model. He ranks 16th among all defensemen in the league to play at least 50 minutes in on-ice expected goals for per 60 minutes over the last month.

The next step is to see consistency and to work on getting that defensive quality against down. However, we’re starting to see some real positive signs out of their top defender.

Some other things we can look at as a reason for the improvement offensively are Tage Thompson’s continued growth, Mattias Samuelsson’s addition to the lineup, Victor Olofsson’s improvement, and Dylan Cozens finding chemistry with Kyle Okposo.

Eventually, we’re going to want to see a Don Granato team play a high event offensive style that outperforms what they give up defensively. Hopefully, we’ll see that start to take shape over the last few months of the season and into next year with better talent on the roster.

Data via: Evolving Hockey, Micah McCurdy, and Moneypuck

Photo Credit: Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images