Victor Olofsson’s last goal came on Halloween in his last game before missing almost three weeks to injury. In the 26 games since returning from injury on November 21, he has yet to once again enter the goal column. It’s not a secret that he’s playing hurt, and given the upper body designation of his injury, the lack of goals is probably tied into that. Still, Olofsson’s emergence in the league was as a goal scorer so to see a quarter-season drought of no goals is as alarming as it is disappointing.

To no surprise, Olofsson’s five goals are below expectation, but that expectation in the simulation below was around 6.4 goals. It’s in line with expecting more goals and the unlikelihood of someone with his shooting prowess going 26 games without a goal, and after considering Olofsson as having 35 career goals on about 27 expected goals (*DIsclaimer* Moneypuck has him down for 34 goals in the time. I have no idea where that other goal is), there’s even more reassurance that it is the injury that is probably what is causing the decrease of goals.

Without his shot at full power, Olofsson’s on-ice value becomes unfortunately hindered. While the team has had worse expected offensive results with him off the ice, as the team’s percentage below league average for xGF/60 is slashed in half when he is on the ice, the results are hindered from his shots. And on top of that, his defensive minutes have led to substantially worse team expectations while he’s on the ice, so not only are the Sabres not getting the same Victor Olofsson that they are used to getting, the team is suffering alongside.

On the bright side, the powerplay remains better when he’s out there than not.

With all this being said, however, the 2021-22 season is looking like a write off for Olofsson, which puts both him and the Sabres in a tough place because he will be a restricted free agent this summer (Per Spotrac) with three more seasons until he would be eligible for unrestricted free agency. It’s no secret that the Sabres are not on a path to contend in at least one of those three team-control years for Olofsson, and because of that, Olofsson should probably be moved this summer.

Hockey admittedly can be more on the unpredictable side when it comes to season-to-season changes in team performance, but after the last 11 seasons, I’m not inclined to expect the Sabres to have a playoff-contending roster for two if not three of those seasons of team control for Olofsson, and he would be reaching UFA just as the Sabres roster becomes talented enough to start coming along with some higher salaries. I don’t think a 30-year-old Olofsson getting a “core”-type contract is the best use of what may very well end up being a $5-$6 million salary and a multi-year contract.

Meanwhile, keeping him while the team is continuing to try to reach a 75-82 point total is almost wasting his potential. He could be added to a team as a powerplay specialist on a contender with an offensive-centric third or fourth line, and the likely $4-$5 million cap hit he will likely get going into 2023 could be a bargain for a 20 goal projection once he’s healthy. Of course, the injury means a deadline deal, as well as a summer trade even, could be on a lesser value coming off playing through an injury, but as part of continuing to stockpile picks, having more volume in those and continuing to see which prospects could grow into an Olofsson role means far more for the Sabres rebuilding path than continuing to roll out Olofsson as a “core” forward for a struggling team. 

The demand to bring Olofsson up when he made his NHL debut was that he could catalyze the Sabres offense and keep their 2018-19 season afloat before it sunk following the 10 game win streak, only for it to come too late in the year. Now, in very different circumstances, it’s a very similar reason that the Sabres should look to give Olofsson that chance again on a playoff team looking for extra firepower in a seven-game series.

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