Following a relatively uneventful start of free agency for the Buffalo Sabres, things picked up significantly yesterday evening. As of five hours after the unrestricted free agent market officially opened, the Sabres had only made one signing in forward Vinnie Hinostroza.

Fans of the blue-and-gold seemed dissatisfied with the lack of action to that point. Even as a rebuilding team, there was some expectation of action, given the team’s needs both defensively and in goal. At around five o’clock the former of those two areas was addressed in full as the team announced the acquisitions of Will Butcher, and the return of a familiar face in Mark Pysyk.

Butcher arrived via trade with the New Jersey Devils. In Kevyn Adams’ first true “cap dump” acquisition, he obtained a fifth-round draft pick along with Butcher in exchange for future considerations. Less than an hour later, the team revealed the signing of Pysyk to a one-year, $900,000 UFA contract.

Obviously, the Sabres’ defense is going to look a lot different next season. Not only did they add two legitimate NHL assets in Butcher and Pysyk, but also a depth defender in Robert Hagg who came over as part of the deal that sent Rasmus Ristolainen to the Philadelphia Flyers.

Let’s examine how the two newest additions fared last season, and how their respective skill sets might fit in under Don Granato.

Will Butcher

Interestingly enough, Pysyk isn’t the only familiar face making its way to Western New York. Back in 2017, the Sabres courted Butcher as a collegiate free-agent. In fact, he even visited the team’s facilities as he decided between Buffalo and New Jersey. Ultimately, he chose to sign with the Devils, where he had performed very well up until last season.

From 2017-2020, Butcher put up very strong metrics at both ends of the ice. Offensively, his puck-moving ability had a direct translation to his team’s on-ice expected-goal rate (which was only surpassed by their actual goal rate with Butcher deployed).

He also achieved these metrics while spending a significant majority of his five-on-five ice time paired with a very mediocre partner in Ben Lovejoy (a player who’s on-ice xGF rate dropped by a whopping nine-percent when he skated sans Butcher).

All of the underlying metrics from that timeframe point to Butcher being the driving force behind the Devils’ de facto second defensive pairing. So, why did his underlying numbers plummet so badly during the 2020-21 campaign?

The most glaring difference is the amount of time he spent deployed alongside Connor Carrick. In over 135 minutes as a pairing last season (by far Butcher’s most consistent partner), they struggled badly, posting an on-ice xGF rate of just 34.55%. Without Carrick at his side, Butcher’s xGF numbers rocketed upward to 59% on the year. Carrick benefitted similarly from being away from Butcher with his xGF rate increasing to 54.49%.

The most obvious answer here is that they were just a terrible match for one another. Butcher’s second-most consistent partner last season was Sami Vatanen. The Butcher-Vatanen duo held an xGF rate of 54.58-percent at even-strength. Despite his name recognition, Vatanen isn’t really great at anything, though he has shown the ability to post positive offensive impacts on an inconsistent basis. Lovejoy, who we referenced earlier, was a more defensively-inclined blueliner, who also wasn’t really spectacular in a given area.

So, it doesn’t seem like Butcher necessarily needs a complimentary skill set to his own in order to succeed. That said, he clearly struggles when paired with someone like Carrick who throughout his career has been downright dreadful at both ends of the ice.

If the Sabres can find a partner for Butcher who isn’t a total liability, his underlying numbers should experience a positive regression. As noted above, as long as his partner isn’t a complete liability, his transition ability on the counter-rush can result in desirable analytical outcomes.

We’ll see how Granato uses him, but this is a very high upside acquisition despite the Sabres being paid to take the 26-year-old off the Devils’ hands.

Mark Pysyk

A player most famously known for scoring a goal with the puck lodged in his pants (as well as being the original Sabres Twitter analytics darling) makes his return to the team that drafted him in the first round of the 2010 NHL Draft (23rd overall). For a team that had a glaring hole to fill on the right side of the defense, fans were growing increasingly curious as to how Adams planned to address it.

During his 125-game stint in Western New York to begin his NHL career, Pysyk was known to have strong underlying impacts in a time when publicly available analytics weren’t as widely accessible. Fortunately, as advanced data became, well, more advanced, his underlying metrics remained strong.

Over the last three seasons between the Stars and Florida Panthers, the now 29-year-old has managed to put up positive expected-goals and Corsi metrics at both ends of the ice, but his most consistently dominant results tend to occur in his own end. You would be hard-pressed to find a more balanced and consistent defender for a lower price than the Sabres paid to acquire him.

On a Dallas team that produced notoriously strong defensive impacts in 2020-21, Pysyk had the best overall xG rate among his contemporaries at an astounding 62.67%. He also had the highest xG rate relative to his teammates, so that number wasn’t merely a result of playing on a strong blue line. In fact, the numbers indicate that he was a big reason why it was so effective.

Interestingly enough, he played a majority of the 2020-21 campaign alongside another former-Sabre in Andrej Sekera (who happened to hold the worst xG relative to his teammates on the Dallas blue line). The only knock against Pysyk is the crazy low amount of ice time he got last season, averaging just 11:43 per-game. He will assuredly see a TOI uptick in Buffalo.

We’ll see if his impacts hold up against a heavier workload, but there’s no tangible reason to indicate that they won’t. As the Sabres’ defensive depth chart currently stands, it seems likely that Pysyk will handle second-pairing duties.

Overall, this may end up being the Sabres best, and most sneaky-good player acquisition of the offseason. It’s bizarre that despite his sterling defensive track record (and the fact that he plays on the right side), he didn’t attract more interest on the open market.

Though he seems like quintessential trade deadline fodder for next spring, Buffalo could ultimately keep him around. Organizationally, the Sabres are still thin on the right side. Pysyk is probably young enough to justify retaining beyond this season, especially if he continues to post the same impacts we saw from his time in Florida and Dallas. Either way, this signing is a definitive win for Kevyn Adams.

Closing Thoughts

In reviewing potential defensive pairings for the 2021-22 campaign, I drew a pretty interesting conclusion. If we assume that Don Granato plans to stick with a top pairing of Rasmus Dahlin and Henri Jokiharju, there is a real possibility that Butcher and Pysysk could actually play together on a consistent basis next year.

*Projected Defensive Pairings*

As previously explained, Butcher tends to thrive alongside defensively strong partners who don’t necessarily need to be spectacular in a given area. Pysyk sort of fits that description perfectly and his defensively responsible approach would be complimented nicely by Butcher’s strength in transition. Opposing offenses might have a difficult time hemming this tandem in the defensive zone.

It would be pretty unique and interesting to see these two co-rehabilitate their respective values and make themselves attractive trade deadline targets. We’re obviously getting ahead of ourselves here, but it’s safe to say that the Sabres blue line became infinitely more intriguing over a 60-minute stretch yesterday afternoon. Kudos to Adams and his staff for addressing an area of need while staying shrewd and calculated in the process.

Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey, JFresh Hockey, and Hockeyviz
Advanced Metrics and TOI Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

Photo Credit: Mike Stobe/NHLI via Getty Images