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Defensive Cap Dumps the Sabres Should Pursue

The Buffalo Sabres have a noticeable gap on their current defensive depth chart, particularly on the right side. Despite being a team that reportedly won’t seek out cap dumps in exchange for future capital (something I maintain is an incomprehensible approach in a rebuild), they might have a problem trying to resolve this issue via the unrestricted free agent market.

Underneath the top-tier of free agent defensemen, there are only a few viable depth blueliners on the open market. Compounding on the scarcity is the fact that very few of said depth options are right-shot defensemen. For that reason, Kevyn Adams may have no choice but to pursue a “cap dump” addition in order to simply fill out his defensive top-six. Based on the players currently under contract, here is how the Sabres defensive depth chart looks as of today:

*Robert Hagg is a left shot

Obviously, that group is very thin (and nightmare inspiring). Let’s examine some viable trade options to not only fill the current void, but also become a potentially “flippable” asset at the 2022 trade deadline.

Calvin De Haan

Topping our list is the most obvious and viable defensive option for the Sabres to pursue. It’s no secret that the Chicago Blackhawks are up against the salary cap, and their acquisition of goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury will leave them with just under $2.5 million in remaining space.

Though his best days are certainly behind him, De Haan is still a relatively big name and can be flipped to a contender next spring, especially if the Sabres agree to retain a portion of his $4.55 million AAV salary. As a veteran asset with a lot of experience in winning organizations, he would serve as a solid mentor for a very young Buffalo blue line.

Though his recent overall xGF impacts are rather pedestrian, De Haan is still a strong defensive defenseman at 30 years old. For a Don Granato team that will surely play a more aggressive forechecking style, his presence on the back end could provide a something of a safety blanket for the young forwards on the roster.

If you want to get really crazy, Adams should try to exploit some Chicago futures by taking on the contracts of both De Haan and centerman Brett Connolly. This would simultaneously fill two holes while acquiring future capital, but the Sabres are rarely this clever.

P.K. Subban

Subban is a right-shot defender, but he still makes a lot of sense for the Sabres. While the New Jersey Devils don’t exactly need cap relief (over $31.5 million in current cap space), there are rumors that they plan to go “big game hunting” in free agency as they try to start making a post-rebuild push toward playoff contention.

Like De Haan, Subban is well past his prime years. In fact, he’s turned into a huge liability on the back end in New Jersey. In nearly every underlying statistical category, he has posted a negative impact in each of the last two seasons. Considering his salary of $9 million AAV for one more year, he could put something of a damper on the Devils’ hopes of turning a corner next season.

The big key to all this is the strong possibility that the Devils end up signing Dougie Hamilton in free agency. If they end up closing the deal, that will result in another monster contract on the back end for a team that still needs to add offensive reinforcement. Tom Fitzgerald should be more than willing to unload Subban at the expense of a future or two.

If you want to add another layer to this idea, you could consider how difficult it will be for the Sabres to convince fans to buy tickets in 2021-22. If nothing else, Subban is still a marketable player, despite falling off a cliff from a production standpoint.

Olli Maatta

At this point, you’re probably noticing a “name recognition” trend here. If you want to flip an asset, you either need a player with a good reputation, or someone who has rehabilitated their trade value. Maatta is a rare example of a player who could meet both of those criteria.

After being left exposed in the expansion draft, it’s clear that the Los Angeles Kings don’t see him as a critical asset on their blue line. After a very good start to his career with the Pittsburgh Penguins, the soon-to-be 27-year-old has fallen off the radar to an extent, posting very modest base numbers to go along with his one-year,  $3.33 million AAV contract.

Analytically speaking, Maatta put together the first negative impact season of his career last season (his inaugural campaign with Los Angeles). Prior to that, he put up sterling underlying impacts at both ends of the ice for the Penguins and Blackhawks.

The good news here is that Maatta is young enough to potentially recover his value in a meaningful manner. What better way to do that than playing big minutes with a struggling Buffalo team which would assuredly result in better base totals?

Andrej Sekera

This one is more for fun than anything. At 35 years old, Sekera would probably sooner retire than make a return to Buffalo, but with one year remaining on his $1.5 million AAV contract, he fits the criteria for this exercise. Pair his contract with the fact that the Dallas Stars only have $5.8 million in cap space (11 forwards and 5 defensemen under currently contract) and Sekera could be the odd-man-out, especially if Dallas can’t find a buyer for goaltender Ben Bishop.

Despite being a left-shot defenseman, Sekera has played both sides of the blue line at various points in his career. That added versatility and veteran experience could benefit a thin and youthful Sabres defense.

Though he’s never really been spectacular in a given area, he is a solid enough presence at both ends of the ice. It is worth mentioning however that Sekera did rank last in xG relative to his teammates on the Stars’ blue line last season (which as a group was outstanding). As he’s aged, his defensive metrics have actually experienced a modest improvement while his offensive numbers (which were very strong for the bulk of his career) have regressed significantly.

Closing Thoughts

There is a bit of a fly in the ointment as it pertains to finding a traditional “cap dump” to fill out the right side of the defense. In the current NHL trade market, even below-average right-shot defenders are being dealt for a king’s ransom. While the lefties like Subban and Maatta are very likely to come along with additional compensation in order to take them off of their existing team’s hands, the same may not be true for someone like De Haan.

We’re just a couple weeks removed from the ghost of Duncan Keith being traded for two draft picks simply because he’s a right-handed shooter. The same goes for players like Rasmus Ristolainen and Seth Jones, both of whom went for massive returns last week. On the other side, Shayne Gostisbehere (a left-shot defenseman) was traded along with two draft picks simply to get his salary off the Philadelphia Flyers’ ledger.

The market volatility in that regard is actually pretty remarkable. While right-shot defensemen have always carried more value, the current disparity is really something to behold. For this reason, the Sabres might not be able to get any assets to come along with a player like De Haan. Still, the lack of initial compensation for taking his contract might not be a problem if the Sabres feel he can be flipped for futures pieces at the trade deadline.

Either way, it’ll be very interesting to see what Adams does here. As previously noted, the free-agent options for a team like Buffalo are scarce. Something has to give, whether a reinforcement comes back as part of a larger package (i.e. a Jack Eichel trade) or individually.

Data via: Evolving Hockey and JFresh
Photo Credit: Patrick Smith/Getty Images
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