Over the next few weeks, we’re going to be putting out a few articles on a fun topic. The 2022 Winter Olympics will take place in Beijing, China in February. Unlike in 2018, it appears that NHL players will be permitted to participate this time around.

We’ve decided to build our next Expected Buffalo Faceoff series around predicting the Olympic rosters for Team USA, Canada, Finland, and Sweden. The small twist is that we’ll be putting these rosters together based on the fancy stats. As such, we’re well aware this isn’t how the rosters will really look.

For example, we’ll start things off with the Finnish roster today. I don’t imagine Rasmus Ristolainen will be on either of our rosters, but he will be in Beijing playing for the Finns.

Anthony

The Finnish national team is very unique, even before you examine the roster under the scope of analytics. Upfront, they are loaded with firepower. On the back end, there are weaknesses, particularly when you consider the fact that Rasmus Ristolainen is a perennial shoo-in to not only make the team but play important minutes.

If we try to create the most optimal Team Finland, who subs in for players like Ristolainen (among others) who certainly don’t pass the analytics test?

Forward Lines

Teuvo Teravainen – Aleksander Barkov – Mikko Rantanen

Roope Hintz – Sebastian Aho – Joonas Donskoi

Artturi Lehkonen – Mikael Granlund – Kasperi Kapanen

Jussi Jokinen – Anton Lundell – Aleksi Heponiemi

This forward group is beyond stacked and could serve as a close representation of how the actual Team Finland forwards will be assembled. On the top line, we have two players who ranked among the Top-20 NHL forwards in xWAR/60 last season in Rantanen and Barkov (fourth and 17^th, respectively). Despite only playing 15 games during the 2020-21 season, Teravainen has fared very well since 2018, particularly on offense.

The second line features three more Top-50 xWAR forwards in Hintz, Donskoi, and Aho. This trio represents a fair bit of balance. Aho is one of the most undeniably impactful offensive performers in the NHL. Hintz is no slouch in that regard either, but his defensive metrics make his analytical value what it is. Despite some career ups and downs, Donskoi flourished offensively last season, albeit on a very talented Colorado Avalanche roster.

On the third line, we have perhaps the best defensive winger on the team in Lehkonen. He is paired with two players who are a bit inconsistent but always tend to post solid offensive metrics to go with lackluster defensive numbers in Granlund and Kapanen. I felt that these three made sense together, specifically for the sake of balance.

Rounding out the group, we have what I call the “intergenerational” line. Though Heponiemi and Lundell did see a little bit of NHL time with the Florida Panthers last season, both spent most of their time in Europe. In Lundell’s case, Liiga keeps track of baseline analytics.

According to their data, Lundell ranked fourth in the league among forwards, holding a Corsi rate of 60.7% (which is outstanding given his age). Jokinen, who at age 38 played in the same league last season, ranked 12^th among Liiga forwards with a Corsi rate of 58.8%. Though he left the NHL ranks years ago, his metrics from his age 35 season were still decent (xG rate of 51.67% in 2017-18) and seem to have carried over.

Defensive Pairings

Miro Heiskanen – Olli Maata

Juuso Valimaki – Henri Jokiharju

Ville Heinola – Eero Teravainen

The Finnish defensive ranks were a lot less straightforward than the forwards. Not only do they have a much shallower talent pool on the blue line, but a vast majority of viable candidates are left-handed shooters.

Up top, we have the pairing of Heiskanen and Maata. Neither player is an analytics superstar, but both are positive impact players. Though I feel that Heiskanen’s metrics are at times held in too high a regard, they’re still solid overall.

Next on the list is the duo of Valimaki and Jokiharju. At 22 years old, Valimaki had an excellent rookie season in 2020-21, a campaign that didn’t get the credit it deserved due to modest base point totals. Though his play in his own end could still use a little refinement, his overall numbers were great, which isn’t often the case with first-year blueliners.

As for Jokiharju, his underlying metrics saw a huge leap once Ralph Krueger was fired from the Buffalo Sabres. That said, he too had struggles in his own end. In a way, he’s a bit of a token selection here as the only Finnish righty who holds passable enough underlyings to qualify for this exercise.

For the third pairing, I stuck with the youth trend, opting for Heinola, and Eero Teravainen, brother of Teuvo Teravainen. As a 20-year-old, Heinola played very well in 19 games with the Manitoba Moose of the AHL last season. He also appeared in 19 contests for Lukko in Liiga where he ranked fourth among all defenders, holding a Corsi rate of 59.8%.

As for the younger Teravainen, I just found him interesting. As the top Corsi defenseman in Liiga last season (61.3% through 39 games) he put the world on notice at 22 years old. Though he doesn’t really put up base points, his defensive game should draw NHL interest in the near future (his rights are not currently held by any North American clubs).

Also, his nickname is apparently “Terä” which is Finnish for “Blade” and I think that’s pretty cool.

Goaltenders

Juuse Saros – Tuukka Rask

Picking a starter here was incredibly easy. Saros ranked ninth in the NHL last season in GSAx, stopping 7.75 goals above expected through 36 games. Though he posted putrid results shorthanded, his even-strength impacts were among the best in the league.

I was torn between Rask and Antti Raanta for the backup spot, but I gave the nod to Rask for having a marginally better 2020-21 campaign. I don’t even know if he’ll be healthy enough to play by then, but on paper, he’s the better option. Could have easily gone either way here.

Chad

Anthony and I do have a few differences on our roster. I’ll focus on those as I go through my roster by position group.

Forwards

Roope Hintz – Aleksander Barkov – Patrik Laine

Teuvo Teravainen – Sebastian Aho – Mikko Rantanen

Jesse Puljujarvi – Anton Lundell – Kasperi Kapanen

Kaapo Kakko – Jesperi Kotkaniemi – Joel Armia

The obvious thing that jumps off the page here is Laine. He’s not really someone you’d pick in an exercise that is relying on the fancy stats. The reason that I’m picking Laine is because of his finishing ability.

You can see above in Micah McCurdy’s chart that Laine is one of the best finishing forwards in the league. He can be a useful player with an elite centerman. I’d be sheltering him with a great center in Barkov and Hintz is a solid two-way winger on the opposite wing.

The other big differences are that I filled out the bottom of my roster with some younger players. I landed on Jesperi Kotkaniemi as my fourth-line centerman. His offensive numbers are not great, but he has been solid defensively throughout his career. He also has a knack for playing well in big games as we’ve seen in the playoffs. Playing behind Barkov, Aho, and Lundell will allow him to play his game.

The final player was Kaapo Kakko of the New York Rangers. I was going between him and Lehkonen, a player Anthony selected, but I felt Kakko gave me more. After perhaps one of the worst analytically performing seasons of a rookie, the 2019 second overall pick rebounded nicely. I can see him taking another step next season heading into the Olympic break and earning a roster spot.

Defense

Deciding on the final spots for the Finnish defense was difficult for me. I was tempted to find a spot for Winnipeg Jets prospect Ville Heinola, but I left him as the seventh defender.

Miro Heiskanen – Juuso Valimaki

Esa Lindell – Oliwer Kaski

Olli Maatta – Henri Jokiharju

Ville Heinola

The big difference between the group Anthony and I put together is that I included Esa Lindell on my roster. In Micah’s model below you can see that he’s not going to be a player that will generate a lot for you offensively, but he’s solid in his own end of the ice as a second-pair defender.

Kaski is the other difference here. He’s currently playing in the KHL for Avangard Omsk and his rights currently belong to the Carolina Hurricanes. Kaski is a right-shot defenseman that can bring offense from the blue line. I also went with him because he was a top-four defenseman for the Finns during the IIHF World Championships in the summer.

Goaltender

My main two goaltenders are the same as Anthony with Saros and Rask. However, I decided to add a third to the mix with the injury uncertainty around Rask.

Juuso Saros

Tuukka Rask

Jussi Olkinuora

The difference is Jussi Olkinuora. He was the goaltender for Finland at the World Championships and was one of the best goalies in the tournament. He put up a .943 save percentage in seven appearances in that tournament. He’s also one of the better goaltenders in the KHL. Playing for Metallurg Magnitogorsk he had a .935 save percentage in 30 games.

There isn’t much else at the NHL level that deserves a lot of consideration.

So, who has the better roster?

Photo Credit: Photo by Jean Catuffe/Getty Images

Data via: KHL, Liiga, Evolving Hockey, and Hockeyviz.com