If you got through the monster that was the Sabres draft guide: congratulations! I’ll keep this much more concise. From the Sabres pick at 13, to the Michkov pivot points, and some other players/stories I find interesting but couldn’t fit into a longer article…welcome to Austin’s Draft Thoughts. A potpourri of scatter-brained thoughts before we get this show on the road at 7 pm.

Quick plug: tune into the live stream that Chad is putting on tonight. If we take Gavin Brindley at 13 I promise a good show. If we take Oliver Moore expect a Tiger Wood’s fist pump.

1.) I gave five players for the Sabres first-round pick, but in reality, there are about eight to nine players that could be selected. If you made me add two that I think should be in the mix it’d be Axel Sandin Pelikka and Nate Danielson. I didn’t include ASP because he measured in at 5’9 at the combine and with Power/Dahlin it’d kick one of the three off the PP which is where all of them excel. Nate Danielson is a 200-foot, offensively talented center that had some poor offensive support but still drove almost everything for the Brandon Wheat Kings this past year.

2.) My dark horse for the 13th pick? Otto Stenberg. I think he warrants to be in the conversation even if he’s been pushed down most mock drafts. He was outstanding internationally for Sweden and is an exceptional defensive player as well. His SHL/J20 season had its ups and downs, but he finished on a high note. I can’t point to Ostlund or Rosen as the reason we’d take Stenberg because both were the second pick in the first round. However, Stenberg could easily be the latest in the long-standing tradition of taking Swedes in the teens for the Sabres.

3.) There really isn’t a player I’d get upset over. Matthew Wood had 2 even-strength shot attempts through 4 games tracked. His pace of play killed him at UConn, but from the waist up he’s really good. Colby Barlow seems like a grip-it-and-rip-it winger who’ll hit anything that moves but is a passenger in transition and didn’t display much in the playmaking department. I could talk myself into any player in that range.

4.) If we take Gavin Brindley in the first round I’m going to freak out. I doubt at 13, but if we traded up to get him (as much as I’d hate us trading up) I’d lose my dang mind. I love the way that kid plays the game of hockey and hope he hears his name before the first round is up.

5.) One of my favorite scenarios is to trade back with Colorado for the two picks they got from Montreal and their own first-round draft pick, and then pick Andrew Cristall, Gavin Brindley, and Gracyn Sawchyn. Never going to happen, but I’d be in.

6.) Michkov Pivot Point 1: I never know what Jarmo Kekalainen is going to do at the draft. With the third pick in the draft, he could go any direction and it wouldn’t shock me. I think if Fantilli/Carlsson go at number 2 it makes a pretty easy selection, but I could see Columbus going Michkov. I could see Columbus getting a bit wild and going with Will Smith. I could even see them going, Ryan Leonard. The Yegor Chinakov pick leaves me with little confidence in what will happen at #3.

7.) Michkov Pivot Point 2: Montreal. I fully anticipate Montreal to trade back a few spots to a team who will take Michkov, or they’ll take Michkov themselves. If they make a pick and it’s not Michkov, then this draft officially goes off the rails and I’m here for it.

8.) Michkov Pivot Point 3: Washington. If Michkov lasts to Washington and they don’t select him then I anticipate a full-court press on Twitter by every remaining team to trade up to get Michkov. Michkov almost universally never makes it past Washington in mock drafts, but if he does, then it becomes almost necessary for the media to ask Kevyn Adams what he offered Detroit to make sure he tried to move up.

9.) I am secretly rooting for the Sabres to take Gabe Perreault. I don’t know if he ends up being as productive as he’s been on the USNTDP in the NHL, but I’ve loved watching him play this year and with him wearing the blue and gold it’d be fun to root for him to hit his ceiling.

10.) If you want players who hit people here are four of them for you to root for:

11.) Brady Cleveland, LHD, USNTDP: I’d say 3rd round is a possibility. Cleveland was a one-man wrecking crew for the NTDP this year.

12.) Kalan Lind, LW, WHL: Like a player who looks to destroy opposing players and will occasionally cross the line? Who also could play in the middle six? Spend a second-round pick on Lind.

13.) Quinton Burns, LHD, OHL: Burns will look to separate players from the puck any chance he gets. Most likely a third-round pick.

14.) Carter Sotheran, RHD, WHL: Not as much of a bruiser as the other two, but he’ll throw his weight around in the corners. Most likely be available in the fourth round.

15.) Three trades I’m hoping to see tomorrow:

16.) Arizona trades: Pick #6 and Pick #12 to Columbus for pick #3 to take Leo Carlsson. Columbus turns around and drafts Matvei Michkov and Oliver Moore.

17.) Montreal trades pick #5 to Washington for #8 and Tom Wilson. Washington selects Matvei Michkov. Tom Wilson is an expiring contract and perhaps it takes more to get Washington the #5 spot, but that Newhook trade does not signal to me that Montreal is going to take Michkov. I thought for sure they’d trade up with their extra draft capital, but trading back and getting Reinbacher seems like a win for Montreal.

18.) Buffalo trades UPL+45th overall to Colorado for the 27th overall pick and a 2025 3rd. Buffalo selects Andrew Cristall/Gavin Brindley. Just, please gods above, make it happen.

19.) One of the players I’m hoping the Sabres take a shot on is overager Grayden Siepmann. A smaller, RHD without great production metrics seems like a long shot. However, I will always believe in players who can make plays like this

20.) On a similar note, I find the souring of Riley Heidt pretty odd. I get that Elite Prospects posted about his power play point percentage and that his u18 performance wasn’t stellar, but I enjoyed the player throughout the year. While I wouldn’t take him at 13 and I’d take Brindley/Cristall over him; I do think he deserves to be a top-20 pick.

21.) William Whitelaw has all the talent in the world. His skating, skill, shot, and passing ability are all high-end. He’s undersized but has so much in his tool kit that it shouldn’t matter. However, if he falls in the draft (I’d take him as an early 2nd-round pick) it’s going to be due to plays like this

22.) I think goalie is a position of need for this draft. I’d draft Trey Augustine in the 2nd, Jacob Fowler in the 3rd, Yegor Zavragin in the 5th, and Hampton Slukynski in the 6th. Michael Hrabal would interesting at 45, but at 39 I’m not taking another goalie in the second round for the second consecutive draft.

23.) My ideal draft:

1.) Oliver Moore

2.) Gracyn Sawchyn

2.) Beau Akey

3.) William Whitelaw

4.) Carter Sotheran

5.) Timur Mukhanov

6.) Francesco Dell’Elce

7.) Hampton Slukynski

24.) Trey Fix-Wolansky Award Winner (best player you’ve probably never heard of and will most likely be undrafted): Francesco Dell’Elce, LHD, CAHS.

Dell’Elce was a player I’ve been on since going to watch St. Andrew’s this past year. In the live viewing, he was extremely noticeable and impossible to miss with his offensive transition game and his activation in the offensive zone. On film, he showed a lot of deception at the blue line and defended well at the prep level.

25.) Other nominees: Zaccharya Wisdom, Ty Hanson, Finn Brink, and Gavyn Thoreson. Wisdom got better and was a nominee last year. Hanson didn’t have enough playing time to earn the spot. Finn Brink was good but not great in his USHL transition, and Gavyn Thoreson was a very close second but I didn’t catch many of his high school games.

26.) Past winners of the Trey Fix-Wolansky Award: Trey Fix-Wolansky, Raphael Harvey-Pinard, Joe Miller, Quinn Hutson, and Zach Bookman.

27.) Lastly, here are my 3 favorite sleeper picks in the 2023 NHL draft that I haven’t talked about:

28.) Luca Pinelli (3rd round): I would take him in the late first. He has a tremendous motor, moves pucks extremely well around the ice, and plays in the dangerous areas of the ice despite a smaller frame. I think he could excel in the NHL and is often overlooked in the first two rounds.

29.) Denver Barkey (4th/5th round): Measuring in at 5’8, I imagine it’s going to take an NHL GM willing to bet on this smaller player’s upside in the mid-rounds. He plays the game extremely hard, has great skill, and his micro stats are fantastic. He’s just small. I’d bet on him in the mid-rounds.

30.) Ryan Fine (late rounds): I thought he was the best player on the Moore/Eiserman/Fine line in the u18s for stretches during games. He’s able to carry the puck through the neutral zone, has tremendous skill, and is a creative playmaker in the offensive zone. He played on the third line on the NTDP without any offensive support. In a couple of years at Harvard I expect him to be one of their leading scorers.