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Buffalo Sabres 2023 NHL Draft Guide

by Austin - 1

A Brief Introduction to the 2023 NHL Draft Class

The Buffalo Sabres enter the 2023 NHL draft with eight picks with one in each round and two in the second round. The 2023 draft class runs pretty deep in comparison to the last eleven drafts that I’ve covered. There is a very talented top five in the class (Bedard/Michkov/Fantilli/Carlsson/Smith) followed by a very clear consensus top eight (adding in: Leonard/Dvorsky/Reinbacher) to start the draft. How far Michkov falls will be the first pivot in the draft as there is wide speculation on which team will be willing to take the leap given the geopolitical war in Russia, Michkov’s contract in the KHL running through the 25-26 season, and the fact that he hasn’t been able to interview with teams until the final days before the draft.

While I, probably like most of you, hope Michkov falls down the draft board to a place the Sabres can trade up to get him: I don’t feel like that will happen as one of the teams ahead of us probably views Michkov as a player worth the risk.

From the 9th overall pick until about the 28th overall pick, there is a giant tier of players that could be selected. For example, I would select Gavin Brindley as high as the 10th overall pick for the Sabres but I could also make the argument that he could fall to the 28th overall pick and would understand why the previous 18 players went before him.

The Sabres’ 13th overall selection falls within a tier of players that makes it both very hard to say there is a definitive player we can’t pass up on as they are so much better than who is available, while also there is not a player worth getting upset about because we took him higher than we’d have liked.

The Sabres Current Prospect Pool

The Sabres enter the draft with a loaded forward prospect depth pool. Older prospects like Lukas Rousek, Isak Rosen, and Filip Cedarqvist are starting to get to the level that they’ll compete for roster spots as soon as this year. The 2022 first-round forwards have two that are in the same boat in Juri Kulich and Matthew Savoie with the former as a lock to begin training camp with a roster spot to lose in my own eyes. Noah Ostlund, having battled injuries during his Allsvenskan season, was able to secure a prominent role on his team and will continue to physically develop in the SHL this upcoming year. Oliver Nadeau will try to establish himself in the AHL this year, and hopefully, his pace of play translates to playing against men to give the Amerks a strong net-front, offensive presence in his D+2 year.

The defensive prospect pool is relatively thin. I’m never one to advocate drafting for need, but there’s no denying that there isn’t a high-end prospect in the pool. Ryan Johnson signed his ELC this year after graduating from Minnesota and will be looked upon to be a minutes eater in Rochester to begin the year. Vsevolod Komarov took some big steps in his development as he helped anchor the Memorial Cup champions Quebec Remparts, however, his defensive game still has a ways to go.

Nikita Novikov was a steady, stay-at-home LHD in the KHL who will be making the transition to the AHL this upcoming year, and Mats Lindgren took a while to gel with his new team in the WHL but finished the year strong as a mobile, activating offensive defenseman. 

The goalie pool has seen Devon Levi graduate to the professional ranks while also losing Erik Portillo in a trade. Tobias Leinonen was very shaky in his Liiga performances and still is a long way away from being an NHL-level goalie. 

How to View the Draft Guide

I’ve been writing a Buffalo Sabres draft guide for the better part of five years at Die By the Blade and currently, it’s making its home here at Expected Buffalo going forward. The draft guide is relatively simple in that I’ll make two selections for who I hope the Sabres select at each position, two selections of who I think the Sabres will realistically select, and a wildcard selection which is a player that hasn’t been connected to the Sabres but who I think would make sense if the Sabres picked them. 

If there is a link on the player’s name it’s a scouting report done by Smaht Scouting which is where I currently work to do my own scouting. I’ll add in my own video clips (full disclosure: I lost a ton of videos when a hard drive crashed mid-year), tweets by others in the public sphere breaking down video clips, and I’ll try to put in at least one other resource where you can go to learn more about each player.

This isn’t something I expect anyone to sit and consume in a couple of minutes. It’s more of a resource to use as draft day approaches. You can also check out my own rankings here which has a more in-depth look at where I’d take players and some notes about the players as well. 

13th Overall Selection

Dream Scenario #1: Zach Benson, LW, WHL 

5’10, 160lbs

60gp, 36g, 90pts 

I have held Zach Benson at the #5 spot on my rankings all year and would personally select Benson as early as the 6th overall pick in this draft. For two years he has been the engine of the Winnipeg Ice who were one of the juggernauts in CHL hockey this past year. Benson is a supremely gifted and skilled offensive player. He can use lateral agility and deft puck handling skill to get around players at ease at the WHL level and once he gets by a player he is the consummate example of the player who knows where that puck needs to go to generate a scoring chance afterward. 

He’s the type of player that consistently puts pressure on defensive structures by attacking them where they are weakest and can rarely be stopped or forced into areas of the ice where he doesn’t want the puck to go. His shot isn’t what he’s known for, but he’s able to change shooting angles and utilize screens to make it deadly in the dangerous parts of the ice.

 He was one of the most involved players in my dataset in offensive transition involvement, meaning that he was generating controlled offensive exits/entries as the primary puck transporter despite playing with linemates a year older and being drafted in the first round.

He’s the best defensive forward in my eyes in this draft. He endears himself to me by playing the exact style of hockey I’d want my own team to play. His motor is non-stop and the best in this class. He suffocates space as a forward better than anyone in this class and is the top turnover-forcing forward in as well. He plays on all special teams and excels at all facets of the game.

The knock on Benson is his skating. His pace of play is good for the WHL, but a lot of his pace is generated through effort and not skating mechanics. While some question his offensive upside and how his size might impact his defensive capabilities in the NHL, I find it to be flawed nitpicking about a player that, whenever he took the ice, he was the best player on that ice. He outshined Bedard at the CHL Top Prospects game and he battled through injury to finish the WHL season.

Run to the podium to take Benson. The Sabres wouldn’t regret it.

Dream Scenario #2: Oliver Moore, C, USNTDP

5’11, 176 lbs

53gp, 26g, 64pts

Oliver Moore has been my favorite player from the 2023 NHL draft class starting last summer when I started to create a baseline for this class.

The reasons were bountiful. He was the best skater that I watched last summer. His ability to generate speed right off the blocks, his ability to shift laterally, and his edgework were sublime. Then there were the moments of mind-blowing skating ability that I had to stop and re-watch multiple times to even figure out how he was able to make the move he made.

As the year started he was placed on the left wing with Danny Nelson and Will Vote. An early season switch to center and Nelson to the wing unlocked Moore’s true potential. He is the best puck transporter not named Connor Bedard in this class. He was involved in over 58% of the successful offensive transitions for his line, and 25% of his passes went to dangerous parts of the ice as well.

He plays with a high-intensity motor on the ice. He’s always hard on pucks, always willing to engage in board battles, and supports his teammates in the defensive end. In my only live-action scouting of him against Niagara he was the one player on the NTDP that was able to match Niagara’s intensity and ability to create offensively.

My criticism of Moore is that when James Hagens and Cole Eiserman were brought up from the u17 team before the IIHF u18s and placed on Moore’s line, he was unable to change his style of game to adapt to having two highly skilled offensive players on his line. He also loves to hit the blue line with the puck at his top gear. If defensemen could get him to the outside and keep Moore on their hip then they were easily able to pin him on the boards and create turnovers.

I don’t prescribe to the idea that his hands can’t keep up with his feet. He’s got a ton of skill and he’s able to play in the offensive zone through zone structure and a cycle game.

I project Moore to be a perfect third-line center on a Stanley Cup contending team with the ability to play up in the lineup and provide offensive production as well.

Realistic Scenario #1: Dmitri Simashev, LHD, MHL

6’4, 201lbs

33gp, 1g, 12pts

I remember seeing a video clip in Smaht’s Discord server about Simashev, and a highlight clip can rarely move me, but Simashev’s did. His skating as a 6’4 defenseman was mesmerizing and his ability to carry the puck through the neutral zone had me wondering how he wasn’t being talked about as a potential top-10 pick in the mainstream draft discussion.

Part of the reason was that he had terrible puck luck for much of the year. He would activate off the blue line and create a scoring chance only for it not to go in or hit a post. While his game is not predicated on rush activation or using the skill at the blue line to drive down into medium-danger areas to create points; I do believe there is more to offensive potential than the point production indicates.

If nothing else, Simashev’s mobility and aggressiveness at the blue line in the MHL were impressive and if the Sabres draft him they could end up with one, scary top 4 shortly.

Realistic Scenario #2: Daniil But, LW, MHL

6’5, 203lbs

32gp, 18g, 32pts

Daniil But has been often mocked to the Sabres and it’s not hard to see why. With multiple Tage Thompson comparisons swirling around in the Twitterverse these days; But might be the only player who has a chance to reach the heights of Thompson. His massive frame and great passing vision coupled with flashes of high-end skill make him a tantalizing prospect.

I’ve only watched a few games of But. At the beginning of the year I didn’t see much to the player and, to be honest, wrote him off as a possible power forward who should be available in the 2nd or 3rd round. As our European scouts at Smaht started to push for him to rise in the rankings I circled back and it wasn’t hard to see why. He was trying more creative plays than he did at the beginning of the year, and his passing was fantastic.

There is a caveat with But, and it’s that his skating and pace are not at the NHL level. He’ll struggle to do what he currently does if he doesn’t improve his skating thus, perhaps, the Tage Thompson comparisons come into play.

He’s a developmental project, but one that if he does hit, could end up being a massive homerun for the team able to unlock the issues with his skating mechanics.

Wildcard Scenario: Tom Willander, RHD, J20 Nationell

6’1, 179lbs

39gp, 4g, 25pts

Willander is a highly mobile, right-handed defenseman who excels at rush defense and has tremendous first-pass ability as well. I saw him first at the Hlinka last summer and thought Axel Sandin Pelikka, Otto Stenberg, and Tom Willander were fantastic for Sweden in the tournament. While Stenberg and ASP were great offensively, Willander could play a simple and effective game that stood out to me.

I caught a few games of Willander in the junior league and I thought his offensive game against his peers could project, but I feel like he lacks true puck skill to ever run a power play in the NHL. When we were talking about how to rank Willander in the Smaht rankings session it was said that if you want David Reinbacher but miss out on him: then go take Willander. I feel like that is an apt comparison as I’m not quite sure that Reinbacher will be an offensive defenseman either.

Pick 39

Dream Scenario #1: Gracyn Sawchyn, C/RW, WHL

5’11, 165 lbs

58gp, 18g, 58pts

I love Gracyn Sawchyn. His ability to create passing angles and complete passes to dangerous areas of the ice are among the best in the entire draft class. He had his coming-out party at the CHL Top Prospects game where I thought he was the best player on the ice the entire game. While his pace of play is not where I’d like it to be and faster players can get on top of him too easily at the junior level, his puck skill and vision are so good that he’s able to get by defenders in small area situations.

He has a high-end motor and is extremely responsible defensively. Even if an offensive player gets by him then he backcheck relentlessly and harasses the player, oftentimes forcing the player to deviate off their intended path.

Sawchyn has the talent and microstat profile of a top 20 player. He played on a super team in Seattle where he carved out a role in the middle six and the second power play unit and produced extremely well for a player that was averaging 5-6 minutes less ice time than some of the top forwards in this draft class at even strength. If his skating comes a bit farther then he’ll be one of the best players to come out of the second round in the 2023 draft.

Dream Scenario #2: Beau Akey, RHD, OHL

6’0, 170 lbs

66gp, 11g, 47pts

I’ve been extremely high on Akey compared to other scouts in the public sphere for the majority of this year. If you like Willander defensively then you’ll probably like Akey as well. Both are extremely mobile and aggressive at defending the blue lines. Akey keeps a tight gap at the defensive blue line and engages almost immediately in trying to drive the oncoming player to the wall and to separate the player from the puck.

However, I think Akey’s offensive potential is enormous. Before Brandt Clarke joined the team and pushed Akey out of the offensive role he had carved out, Akey was performing well as an offensive player. He was very good as a puck transporter and used his mobility to protect pucks through the neutral zone when carrying out. He was the only defenseman in my entire data set to attempt more than 35 passes in a game and complete over 90% of them as well. There’s a lot to work with Akey, and at worst he’ll be an extremely effective defender against the rush who battles hard in his own zone.

Realistic Scenario #1: Charlie Stramel, C/RW, NCAA

6’3, 216 lbs

33gp, 5g, 12pts

I loved Charlie Stramel when I was doing my summer scouting last year. His play at the u18s was more impressive than Will Smith’s and I thought his blend of skill and power was going to translate very well to Wisconsin this past year. Unfortunately, Stramel struggled mightily to find a role where he was able to excel. He struggled to complete passes and completed just 53% of his passes this past year with only 15% of his passes going to the dangerous areas of the ice. He took a backseat to Gavin Brindley at the World Juniors in transition and couldn’t keep chain-linked plays alive unless he was down low in the offensive zone. Defensively he engages well enough in one-on-one puck battles, but his off-puck positioning was hit-or-miss and I questioned what Wisconsin was trying to do at both ends of the ice.

His physical traits still keep him in the discussion as a top 45 player in this year’s draft. His tumble down the draft board is deserved, but there is a lot there to develop, and with a coaching change in Wisconsin that will be focused on structure, this should benefit him. If he ends up as a bottom-six, net front presence right wing it’s still a win for a second-round pick, but there’s potential for him to develop into a more prominent role.

Realistic Scenario #2: Maxim Strbak, RHD, USHL

6’2, 198 lbs

46gp, 5g, 18pts

Strbak is a player that I’ve had a roller coaster-like experience with scouting this season. At times there’s a good defensive player who flashes the ability to transition the puck. At other times his feet get lost from underneath him and he struggles with oncoming forwards. I thought he excelled in the World Juniors where he was a steady defensive presence for the feisty Slovakia team. He was able to showcase a more offensive game as well as looking very good against his peers in the defensive end of the ice.

I think at the end of the day Strbak can be a positive transition player, but he’s going to have to improve his consistency and hopefully get a little bit more footspeed to create space for himself to generate an exit and to keep a tight gap on NHL players.

Wildcard: Kasper Halttunen, RW, Liiga

6’3, 207 lbs

27gp, 0g, 1pt

Halttunen is a player that currently sits in the early second round by consensus rankings and McKenzie’s rankings who profiles similarly to the season Stramel had. Halttunen was a highly-rated prospect entering the season and I spent a good chunk of time watching the Finnish Hlinka team before the tournament for Smaht’s pre-Hlinka write-up. I found myself wavering then on Halttunen as I found him too one-dimensional and that his game wasn’t dynamic enough for me to see a sure-fire top-six upside.

Hlinka Gretzky – Europe Preview

Halttunen struggled to gain ice time in the Liiga this year and his passing metrics were not good at all in the junior league from a micro stat perspective and the fact he generated just 6 assists compared to his 24 points. His u18s performance was the best he’s looked throughout the year, and at times his physical presence popped off the screen.

He comes in as the wildcard selection because the Sabres don’t have a player of his archetype in the prospect pool, and usually players of this archetype are drafted far higher in the first round.

Pick 45

Dream Scenario #1: Jayden Perron, RW, USHL

5’9, 165 lbs

61gp, 24g, 72 pts

From my own micro stat profiles, Perron was the second most prolific playmaker in North America next to Andrew Cristall. He is fantastic at moving pucks around the ice and over 30% of his passes went to dangerous areas of the ice. He manipulates his speed and can create different passing lanes when entering the zone at different angles and speed variations.

He has tremendous skill and is a good skater, but he does tend to play primarily from the perimeter at even strength and most of his dangerous shot attempts came from off-puck movement or rebounds. I think as he gets stronger throughout his NCAA development you’ll see a complete playmaker develop by the time he signs his ELC.

https://twitter.com/DL_Scouting/status/1627125097772220416?s=20

Dream Scenario #2: Tanner Moldendyk, LHD, WHL

5’11, 176 lbs

67gp, 9g, 37pts

Moldendyk is a player that fits into what I’d be looking for when chasing a day-two defender. He’s one of the best skating defensemen in the entire class, and his hands can keep up with his feet. He’s pretty conservative in his activation into rushes and from the blue line, and his passing data was very good but there are moments in games where he could have multiple failed exits which would hem him in his zone for a prolonged period during a shift.

However, as the year went on, Molendyk’s offensive game took a step forward and his ability to generate offensive chances from his own stick increased quite a bit. While he still opted for conservative chips down low as a go-to move when his space was taken away; I did see a lot more creativity in what he was willing to try to do with the puck.

His mobility made him a great rush defender and with a couple of steps, he could get by F1 forecheckers pretty easily as well. With time he could be a great offensive weapon, but stylistically he could be seen as a Ryan Johnson-esque type of upside at the least.

Realistic Scenario #1: Anton Wahlberg, C, J20 Nationell

6’3, 185 lbs

32gp, 14g, 27pts

At 6’3 and with great puck skill, Anton Wahlberg has seen a significant uptick in his draft stock over the last few months. His speed and skill pop off the screen when you watch him play, and when you take into account his size you find yourself pining for the opportunity to take a player of his caliber in the second round.

His production never matched up with his highlight reel though. While the skill is high-end, there was a lack of complex problem-solving to generate scoring chances that required more than an individualistic effort on his end. He’s going to have to have his vision catch up with his skill to hit his offensive potential.

In the second round, few prospects have the upside that Wahlberg has, but there’s a realistic chance that he only cracks the lineup as a power forward as well.

Realistic Scenario #2: Etienne Morin, LHD, QMJHL

6’0, 183 lbs

67gp, 21g, 72pts

Morin in the offensive zone is amazing. He makes deceptive fakes and operates as a fourth forward in the zone as he’s able to dive down and then stay low and operate from anywhere in the zone. He has a unique skill set at the blue line to be able to move the puck around the offensive zone and utilize his forwards to set himself up for dangerous opportunities.

In the defensive zone, he’s not a poor defender, but he struggles under physical pressure both in puck retrievals and when trying to make a pass under pressure. His skating isn’t high-end and he wasn’t able to generate speed through his crossovers to get by defenders when he’s circling the net.

Morin is a boom-bust type of prospect. You let him create offensively and support him in the defensive zone then he could excel until his skating develops. However, if his skating never develops then he could be a very good AHL power play specialist.

Wildcard Scenario: Oscar Fisker Molgaard, C, SHL

6’0, 163 lbs

41gp, 4g, 7pts

If you are a fan of the type of player that does all of the little things right then Fisker Molgaard is the prospect for you. While he never wowed me when watching a game when I wasn’t scouting him particularly, once I dug into him for rankings calls I was always amazed at all the little plays he’s able to make throughout the game, especially against men. He can get a puck off the wall and to a teammate on their stick to generate an odd-man rush. He can stick lift a forward from behind and generate a turnover. A one-touch pass to the high-danger area, or an off-puck move to pound in a rebound were par for the course with Fisker Molgaard. Fisker Molgaard does it all.

He won’t ever be the primary play driver on a line nor will he be a top point producer, but he’s going to make your team better when he’s on the ice at all ends of the ice.

Pick 86

Dream Scenario #1: Aydar Suniev, LW, BCHL

6’2, 205 lbs

50gp, 45g, 90pts

Suniev was impossible to miss the first time I put on a Penticton Vees game this year. While the Nadeau brothers were destroying the BCHL, it was Suniev who quietly impressed me the most throughout that first game. The way he plays the game and his physical traits are all worthy of a selection much higher than I’m suggesting here. His size, his skill, and his ability to be a play driver who also can score at will.

He plays at a very slow pace though. He’s the type of player that I’d put with a skating coach for the better part of three years in the offseason and let him develop in the NCAA. He’s one of my favorite bets in the mid-rounds to severely outperform his draft stock.

Dream Scenario #2: Quinton Burns, LHD, OHL

6’1, 179 lbs

53gp, 2g, 29pts

Quinton Burns was a player that I almost didn’t notice at the beginning part of this year, but it was scouting teammates and teams playing against him that Burns continually caught my eye. For one, he’s always involved in the defensive zone. He is violent in his approach to getting the puck from offensive players and keeps a good gap when defending the blue line as well. I enjoyed his ability to create space to get off the first pass.

He was my favorite defender for Canada in the u18s and thought he was about to soar up draft rankings until he got hurt. I think the Sabres end up, if they take Burns, with a fan-favorite type of bruiser on the backend who can make positive transition decisions. 

Realistic Scenario #2: Martin Misiak, C, USHL

6’2, 198 lbs

27gp, 6g, 17pts

Misiak is the type of player that endears himself to my heart. He plays a very simple and effective game. He scans and reads plays before they happen and makes simple but optimal plays in transition and in the offensive zone. He’s hard on pucks and doesn’t let anything happen easily on the forecheck or in the defensive zone. 

However, there’s not a lot of depth to his offensive game. He plays effectively but not creatively, which limits where I can project him in the lineup. However, I believe his game translates very well to the NCAA and the NHL with some more opportunities perhaps we could see more of his offensive game blossom as his thought processes and pace both mentally and skating are there already.

Realistic Scenario #2: Brady Cleveland, LHD, USNTDP

6’4, 201 lbs

55gp, 0g, 6pts

I think Quinton Burns will endear himself to Sabres fans, but he’s also somewhat undersized for the game he plays. Brady Cleveland would 100% appease the fan base that misses the booming hits Ristolainen used to throw. Cleveland makes his presence known every time he steps on the ice. He has good mobility for his size which allows him to keep a good gap and be a positive rush defender. He does struggle a bit with his first pass and he’s not a threat in the offensive zone. 

If you’re looking for a big, mean, and mobile enough player to be a very good defender in the NHL draft then Cleveland is your guy.

Wildcard Scenario: Gavin McCarthy, RHD, USHL

6’1, 181 lbs

42gp, 8g, 27pts

Our first WNY prospect in the queue! He had an injury-riddled season that will impact his draft stock, but there isn’t a player that has the range in their game like McCarthy does after the first round. McCarthy has a snarl to him and will get in the opponent’s face and lay the body into them. He also can be a transition defender with the ability to carry the puck across two blue lines. 

He can jump into a play and get off a deadly wrist shot, but he’s also shown that he can be passive and work play around the perimeter of the zone conservatively. I think in the 2nd/3rd round he is one of the more exciting defensive prospects because there are a lot of directions his game can take him to impact an NHL lineup.

Pick 109

Dream Scenario #1: Timur Mukhanov, C, VHL

5’8, 170 lbs

31gp, 4g, 8pts

If…IF…you took size out of the equation then I would dare anyone to find a more exciting prospect that was going to fall into the mid-rounds than Timur Mukhanov. He’s currently listed at 5’7, but everything about his game is so translatable. He has great mobility for his size and is physically engaged in every defensive battle. He has great lateral mobility with insane hands to get inside the offensive zone, even against men in Russia. He’s great at putting pucks into dangerous areas both through passes and on his stick and isn’t afraid to play in the dirty areas to get his shot off.

His point production never materialized to what the eye test showed for me. I never got to track him, but my goodness, if he grows an inch or two he could be one of the more fun players to come out of this draft and he’s most likely available in the 4th/5th round.

Dream Scenario #2: Matthew Mania, RHD, OHL

6’0, 187 lbs

67gp, 10g, 38gp

In the first game I tracked of Mania he had 9 shot attempts at even strength and three of them were in dangerous areas of the ice. While he was inconsistent in his passing metrics and transition data throughout the dataset, there was always growth in his game whenever I saw him play and I kept bumping him up my rankings. 

When you watch defensemen and try to project offensive ability I have found that how you deal with the oncoming pressure is often the true measure of offensive potential. It’s easy to get by and slip passes around, expanded gaps in defensive pressure, or by positioning oneself in areas of the ice where there’s a clear lane to dive into the offensive zone. Manipulating an oncoming defender’s stick and feet to create the lane to pass or drive down into the offensive zone is projectable and creates small-area advantages in the offensive zone. While Mania could be all over the place in a given game, he was always able to generate opportunities regardless of the space he was given. 

Realistic Scenario #2: Carter Sotheran, RHD, WHL

6’3, 185 lbs

68gp, 4g, 23 pts

Sotheran reminded me of a poor man’s Mattias Samuelsson watching him play alongside Luca Cagnoni this year. He allowed Cagnoni to activate as much as he wanted as he played a very conservative, defensive role as his defensive partner. He isn’t afraid to throw the body and he has decent puck skill. However, his first pass was very erratic in its consistency and he opted for low percentage point shots instead of trying to make plays from the blue line. 

As a big, RHD who can allow a Power/Dahlin to play on their strong side and won’t need the puck to make plays; he makes a lot of sense as a mid-round prospect to help build the depth as a potential middle-pairing defender who could see significant time on the penalty kill.

Realistic Scenario #2: Noel Nordh, W, J20 Nationell

6’2, 194 lbs

38gp, 13g, 27pts

At this range of the draft I often look at players who either 1.) Giant homerun swings who are either going to play a significant role or never see the NHL or 2.) Find players who fit a bottom six/PK role but also have aspects to their game that could project higher in the lineup if things significantly improve that I believe are mechanical in their development. Nordh fits the latter.

He fit in playing in the SHL and his role as a one-touch transition player was easy to see in my limited viewing. He’s responsible defensively and looks for his offense as an off-puck, passenger player in both the J20 and the SHL. If he’s able to refine his skating mechanics and thrives in a complementary role then I think Nordh could end up being a great mid-round pick.

Wildcard Scenario: Tanner Adams, C, USHL

5’11, 183 lbs

49gp, 12g, 33pts

Tanner Adams was a better transition player in his D-1 year than Gavin Brindley on the Tri-City Storm. He was able to complete more transitions with control than Brindley and was able to do so with the puck on his stick or by passing through the neutral zone. This year, however, he was unable to make the next step offensively to generate scoring chances off his controlled entries. He was over a 40% offensive involvement rate which is a key indicator of offensive input to me in my dataset. However, he had some of the worst puck luck I’ve seen from a player. Whether that was missing 6(!!) high-danger shot attempts in the Hlinka, to not being able to capitalize on his dangerous shooting/passing stats in the USHL; Adams was a player who either had terrible puck luck or an inability to generate the final play in a chain-linked play to generate the primary point.

I believe a lot in the player. He skates well and plays extremely hard on both ends of the ice. He might be the type of player that takes the full four years to blossom, but for the entire year, he has progressed and showed NHL-level talent.

Pick 141

Dream Scenario #1: Griffin Erdman, W, USHL

5’10, 174 lbs

62gp, 18g, 41 pts

Erdman was a star in the Hlinka development camp and had a great tournament as well. He can move into dangerous areas of the ice with the puck on his stick or off-puck to generate great scoring opportunities. He didn’t see very much power play time but was still able to produce at a very respectable production rate as well.

Erdman is the type of player that screams ‘more opportunities=more production’. He gets after the opposition when they have the puck and is not passive in his approach to the offensive side of the game as well. As he earns more offensive opportunities with linemates who are more skilled I think he’s going to shine as a player that could play on a team’s third line and produce.

Dream Scenario #2: Hoyt Stanley, RHD, BCHL

6’3, 205 lbs

53gp, 4g, 38pts

Every year there’s a bigger defenseman who looks like they’re growing into their bodies but has the skill of a smaller defender that makes me think they’re worth the upside swing in the mid-rounds in the draft. While another player who is more raw in his offensive potential is coming up in this guide; Stanley is the player who I think could make the jump the quickest.

He has great mobility for his size, and with a patient development plan, I think he could end up paying dividends to the team that selects him.

Realistic Scenario #1: Petter Vesterheim, W, J20 Nationell

5’10, 170 lbs

41gp, 12g, 39pts

I didn’t know anything about Vesterheim until he was suggested to be ranked by the Smaht team in the final rankings. Watching a few of his games it was very obvious, to me at least, that his physical traits are what a team would lean into when selecting Vesterheim. He falls into this draft guide because of the Sabres’ pension to going European in the late rounds while also factoring in that he’s one of the best remaining skaters in this draft class and has a skill that flashes in every game I put on of his.

He’s extremely raw in his approach to the game. He doesn’t dictate play, and while his skill shines through watching him play, if he’s not directly involved in the play then he can be a bit invisible for too long of stretches given the level he was playing at. 

Vesterheim reminds me of the type of development plan that Rousek or Cedarqvist have been on in that we won’t see him make an impact in the AHL until his age 22 or 23 season. However, if you told me that we could have a player pining to make the NHL roster at the same time both of them will then I’d sign up for that every day of the week.

Realistic Scenario #2: Eric Pohlkamp*, RHD, USHL

5’11, 205 lbs

59gp, 16g, 51pts

It took a long time for me to warm up to Pohlkamp this year. While his heavy wrist shot and ability to use the space at the blue line was impressive all year; I kept doubting his foot speed and that it would ever translate to professional hockey. I’m more inclined now to say that his offensive game is translatable and that his foot speed is something that could be worked on during his time in college.

The reigning USHL Defenseman of the Year earned the title, and if available in the late rounds should be an easy target for a prospect depth pool that lacks right-handed defensemen.

Wildcard Scenario: Luke Mittelstadt**, LHD, NCAA

5’11, 174 lbs

38gp, 5g, 21pts

The younger Mitts has always struggled with pace. His skating has been the biggest reason why he hasn’t been selected in the NHL draft to this point. The question for me is: if a player continues to shine in every step of the developmental process despite the questions of pace, then at what point can we say his processing mitigates the foot speed? 

He made plays on the biggest of stages for Minnesota this year and has rarely been a detriment on the ice as well. He earned prominent minutes in the NCAA tournament for the country’s #1 team throughout the season. At this point, he’s silenced my own critical assessment of his game and deserves to be a selection in this year’s NHL draft.

Pick 173

Dream Scenario #1: Ryan Conmy, RW, USHL

5’10, 185 lbs

60gp, 33g, 62pts

The rare prospect that generated points but still struggles to find themselves climbing up the draft boards, Conmy’s off-puck offensive game was often hidden beneath the questions about his skating. 

He plays a relatively simple game. Conmy looks to get himself to dangerous parts of the ice and does so without great puck skill or lateral deception to move defenders’ feet/stick to get there. Does this translate to the NHL? I think the instincts are there for him to make it work in the NCAA and then the AHL, but until he develops an offensive game that has more depth I feel like most people will slot him into a tweener of an AHL/NHL player who may struggle to find a foothold in the NHL. I’ll always bet on the players who play the style of game I’d like to see from my own NHL team, but this is a bit of a long-shot play if you’re hoping his production translates to NHL success.

Dream Scenario #2: Larry Keenan, LHD, USHS-Prep

6’3, 185 lbs

49gp, 11g, 37pts

Within about three weeks I had multiple scouts talk about Keenan’s booming slap shot in private servers. I didn’t make note of the first game I saw him play as I chalked him up as a possible D+1 pick next year but was too raw offensively to feel comfortable swinging on him in 2023. Digging into multiple games, it was evident that Keenan possesses a lot of NHL translatable traits, but will need to make multiple leaps to have an impact in the NHL.

I like to bet on big, rangy defensemen in this area of the draft. Keenan will have a long developmental path and if he can process the game as it becomes faster and more complex then he could be a great late-round pick.

Realistic Scenario #1: Cole Knuble, C/RW*, USHL

5’11, 185 lbs

57gp, 30g, 66pts

I faux drafted Knuble to the Sabres in the sixth round of last year’s draft and all he did was become one of the most impactful forwards in the USHL in his D+1 season. The questions I had about his skating proved to be more about balance and strength and he was able to dictate play a lot better than last year. 

He’s super smart with the puck on his stick, gets to areas of the ice where goals are scored, and is the consummate teammate that will do the necessary little details that win games. He deserves to get picked in this year’s draft.

Realistic Scenario #2: Arvid Bergstrom, LHD, J20 Nationell

5’11, 168 lbs

41gp, 2g, 23pts

Bergstrom was a very mobile, offensive defenseman playing in the J20 this past year. He was very aggressive in his offensive activation strategies and showed a great ability to generate offensive chances.

Defensively, despite his mobility, he kept too wide of a gap and struggled defensively both in the zone and against the rush this year. The physical traits make him extremely attractive as a late-round swing and given the very long runway that Sweden provides prospects, he fits the Sabres mold of a type of player to bet on. 

Wildcard Scenario: Hampton Slukynski, G, USHS-MN

6’1, 170 lbs

30gp, 1.47 GAA, .941 SV%

This will be very short: he played Minnesota HS hockey this year. There’s no real track record recently with how these goalies will project, but he performed well in his very limited role-playing with the NTDP. He had a shutout in the u18s. He’s chosen an NCAA path that will allow him to step right in and assume the starter’s role. We need to build the goalie depth now that most have graduated and Portillo is gone, and Slukynski is a low-risk investment that has the data behind him to be a low-risk, high-reward type of pick.

Pick 205

Dream Scenario #1: Brandon Svoboda, C, USHL

6’3, 212 lbs

59gp, 16g, 26pts

Svoboda’s point production was not impressive, but his physical traits and his detailed plays were very high-end for a player that struggled to find the top 6 minutes on the Clark Cup champion Youngstown Phantoms. He is the ideal F1 forechecker in the USHL as he’s a constant pest deep in the zone and great at generating turnovers. Once he turns the puck over he looks quickly to assess where the puck needs to go.

He tries complicated puck-handling plays and will make the correct pass when he’s able to get buy defenders, but he didn’t attempt too many of these plays when I watched him this year. He has a lot of raw ability but will need a good deal of time to put it all together to project to an NHL player.

Dream Scenario #2: Francesco Dell’Elce, LHD, CAHS

6’0, 157 lbs

51gp, 20g, 62pts

I love Dell’Elce. I found myself consistently arguing about his upside and that I think he could be a hidden gem in this year’s draft. At St. Andrew’s he showed a great ability to generate offense off his own stick. Despite having a lot of offensive firepower as a prep school, Dell’Elce was often the primary driver of chances and was integral in chain-linked plays. 

He’s great at getting his shot through from the blue line even for a Prep player, and once he gets to scoring areas his shot beats goalies clean from a distance. I’m a huge believer that the UMass commit could become an impactful NHLer, but there’s no denying there’s a long road ahead of him to prove it.

Realistic Scenario #1: Dylan Hryckowian*, RW, USHL

5’10, 170 lbs

61gp, 26g, 65 pts

Hryckowian was one of my favorite overage players that weren’t on my radar this season. He is a fantastic skater with a lot of playmaking skills that made him my favorite Cedar Rapids player in the USHL. He processes the game so well and is the definition of a player that makes his teammates around him better as well. The Northeastern commit will look to fill big shoes next year as they rebuild, and I expect that he’ll be selected this year as his offensive tool-kit is too tantalizing to let him go to NCAA free agency.

Realistic Scenario #2: Tyler Duke*, LHD, NCAA

5’9, 179 lbs

40gp, 4g, 12pts

At this point of Tyler Duke’s career you either believe that he’ll be able to continue to be the dominant defender he has been at 5’9 or you think his foot speed and size will never make him an NHL player. At Ohio State this year he played a prominent role for the Buckeyes in their transformation from a middling Big 10 program to threatening the best programs for supremacy of the conference. He continues to be a great transition player who can make smart offensive plays, and his transfer to play with his brother Dylan at the University of Michigan should generate even more offensive opportunities and point production than Ohio State offered him this year.

Wildcard Scenario: Zaccaraya Wisdom*, RW, USHL

6’1, 172 lbs

59gp, 28gp, 48pts

Wisdom is a hard F1 forechecker who blends great pace, off-puck positioning, and net-front offensive presence to be an impactful USHL forward these past two seasons. While his passing ability has never materialized to play up in the lineup to this point; Wisdom has the speed and motor to play in the bottom six and thrive as an energy player on an NHL team. The Colorado College commit will spend his NCAA career earning more and more playing time as a player who can play in all three zones and any special teams situation.

Photo Credit: Just Pictures/Sipa USA

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