The Buffalo Sabres 2021-22 season is over after a promising finish with real signs of growth for the first team in a decade. The excitement for next season have us quickly shifting our focus to the offseason.

This offseason will the summer of goaltending for the Sabres. Finding a legitimate starting goaltender is their top priority and it’s not close. There’s no excuse to not address this position in the offseason.

At this point, it appears Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen will be part of the goaltending tandem in the NHL. However, he shouldn’t be relied on than providing any more than about 30 games in his first full season in the league. This is why it is important to find someone that can be between the pipes for the remaining 50 games.

Recapping the Sabres Goaltending

There has been some talk about bringing Craig Anderson back if he wants to play another season. The vibe seems to be that it’s his decision. If he wants to continue to player, the Sabres want him back.

I understand how important Anderson has been off the ice for this young team and they have a better record when he has started games for them. Having said that, he’s still not an ideal option for them to be the top goaltender moving forward. This team is ready to compete for a playoff spot next season and they need something reliable in goal.

The shot quality adjusted numbers for Anderson were not that good this season and this was the case for Dustin Tokarski as well. In Evolving Hockey’s model, Anderson ranked 60th and Tokarski ranked 68th in goals saved above expected among 81 qualifying goaltenders that played at least 250 minutes.

Overall as a team, they were one of the worst in goals saved above expected. In all situations they were fourth-worst in the league in the twins’ model.

The numbers at 5 on 5 were similar.

While some of you may be thinking that the defense could have played a hand in this, it did not. The color on the bars in the two charts above show how each team ranked in shot quality against. The lighter the bar, the better the expected goals against per 60 minutes numbers.

The Sabres finished 20th overall on the season. Since the All-Star break, the Sabres ranked 17th in xGA/60 at 5 on 5 in Evolving Hockey’s model. However, they had the worst 5 on 5 save percentage in the league over that stretch.

You can see why it’s so important for the goatending situation to be addressed with a real starting option. There is a scenario where Anderson could return as the backup, but that would be ceiling of his on-ice role.

Offseason Options

The options to solve the Sabres’ issues in goal are not great outside of a few trade possibilities. This is a topic that we’ll be discussing throughout the offseason, therefore I’m not going to go into great detail. My plan here is to list out some options to set the table for future conversations.

Free Agents

The free agent market doesn’t yield a lot this offseason. It’s full of goaltenders that will be best served to play in a tandem of some kind. Your 50-game starter isn’t hitting the market this season.

Darcy Kuemper

Kuemper is the only goalie that is scheduled to hit free agency that fills the role of a legitimate starter. He has had a good season for the Colorado Avalanche and logically you would think he returns to that team.

If he does not, the 32-year-old will command top dollar on the open market, but that shouldn’t be an issue for the Sabres. The problem would be getting him to take your money to play for a team that is just starting to turn into something.

Ville Husso

Husso is another interesting option. However, at this point I would put money on him returning to the St. Louis Blues. He has outplayed Jodan Binnington and is their starter going into the playoffs. The Blues will likely look into seeing if their is a market for Binnington and his big contract.

Marc-Andre Fleury

Fleury is an idea some have discussed as a player that you overpay on a short-term deal to bring into the mix. I’m not a big fan of this idea, but they could do worse. At the end of the day, I would bet he returns to the Minnesota Wild or signs with another legitimate Stanley Cup contender.

Joonas Korpisalo

Korpisalo is my least favorite idea. His numbers have been among the worst in the league the last few years and he’s coming off of surgery. It’ll be interesting to see if there is any kind of substantial market for him in the offseason.

Trade Targets

The trade market is the the route that would likely give the Sabres the best return on their investment. There are a few realistic trade targets that could handle the role of a primary starter.

Connor Hellebuyck

If he’s made available, Connor Hellebuyck is at the top of the list. He has been one of the best goaltenders in hockey for a few years running and would give them their best goaltender in a long time.

We’ll see what the Jets decide to do this offseason. Do they take one more run with the group they have or start to move players out in an attempt to build around a new core?

John Gibson

Gibson is another one that there’s no guarantee he’s available. With the direction the Anaheim Ducks are headed under Pat Verbeek, I would say it’s more likely he’s on the market than Hellebuyck.

He has six years remaining on his deal, so he would be a long-term solution. The acquisition cost may be high, but they have the pieces to make it work.

Semyon Varlamov

Varlamov is an underrated option this summer. Ilya Sorokin has taken over as the starter on Long Island and the Islanders need to create some cap space. Moving Varlamov’s $5 million contract seems like an obvious move for them.

The 34-year-old has one year remaining on his contract and could be an option to give the Sabres stability in goal next season. Then they can determine if they want to bring I’m back or take another swing in the summer of 2023. It shouldn’t cost a lot to make that trade.

Alexandar Georgiev

There have been rumors the last few years connecting the Sabres to the Rangers’ goaltender. I’m not sure he can be a full-time starter in the NHL, but someone is going to give him the opportunity. I would hope it’s not the Sabres, but it wouldn’t shock me if it is.

Matt Murray

The last option I’ll throw up on the board is two-time Cup champion, Matt Murray. After a few years of bad performance, Murray turned things around with the Sens this season. The question becomes will he become a goalie that goes from clearing waivers to being a commodity on the trade market? His contract is still a tough pill to swallow.

Taking a quick look at the numbers below, you can see how these options stack up in shot-adjusted numbers this past season.

Since goaltending can be unpredictable, getting it may be more helpful to grab a multi-year sample.

At this point in time, I would place Gibson at the top of my list of realistic options the Sabres should explore. If Hellebuyck does become available, he would jump to the top.

We’ll be discussing what they do in goal all summer until they make their move and will dive deeper on these players in individual write-ups as the offseason moves along.

Data via: Evolving Hockey and Cap Friendly

Photo Credit: Debora Robinson/NHLI via Getty Images