As we approach the conclusion of the 2021-22 NHL season, the Buffalo Sabres’ future core has taken the spotlight. 2021 first-overall pick, Owen Power is set to make his debut on the blue line tonight, while players like Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin continue to make their presence felt at the top of the lineup. The future looks bright.

For the most part, the Sabres’ young pieces have made satisfactory (or better) development strides in Don Granato’s first full season behind the bench. Still, there are two players, in particular, whose standing with the fans seems to vary by the day. They also happen to be skating on the same forward line as of late.

Since the beginning of the season, asset valuation on Victor Olofsson and Casey Mittelstadt has been all over the map. I have waffled on both players as it relates to their place as members of the Sabres’ core beyond this season. Both have had their ups and downs this year, but their recent surge (both in terms of base production, and underlying results) is intriguing.

Because I love convolution (and the required data dissection that comes along with it), I decided to investigate the situational metrics and identify some circumstantial factors that might be contributing to their respective upticks in production.

The Silent Assasplund

We’ll kick off this discussion with the most mathematically dramatic factor in the metrics. Typically, I’m apprehensive to put too much stock into WOWY metrics, but the statistical delta, in this case, is too significant to ignore.

To put it simply, Rasmus Asplund’s presence has helped elevate Mittelstadt and Olofsson’s on-ice metrics in such a way that he’s almost single-handedly covering for their biggest flaw (i.e. defensive impact).

In 140 minutes as a trio, Asplund, Mittelstadt, and Olofsson carry a five-on-five xGF rate of 50.14%. That’s pretty solid, but let’s examine what Asplund’s removal from the equation means for each player.

Nobody has spent more ice time with Asplund than Olofsson. Just under 46% of Olofsson’s five-on-five minutes this year have been spent alongside his Swedish cohort. With Asplund at his side, Olofsson’s xGF rate stands at 51.26% on the year. Without him, that figure plummets down to 38.76%.

Now, it is worth noting that a good chunk of Olofsson’s ice time sans Asplund came when he first returned from a wrist injury. That ailment largely took away Olofsson’s biggest weapon, his shooting ability. Still, in terms of play-driving, Asplund’s impact has been earth-shattering, particularly when it comes to preventing chances-against, as illustrated in the charts above.

Mittelstadt’s analytic disparity with and without Asplund is similar. An even greater proportion of his five-on-five ice time has been at Olofsson’s side (208 out of 414 total minutes played). Alongside Asplund, Mittelstadt carries an xGF rate of 51.34%. Away from him, that figure drops down to 37.57%.

Is it possible that these three players are all elevating each other? Why are we assuming it’s Asplund who is driving the xG share for the whole line? Well, in the 435 minutes Asplund has skated sans both Olofsson and Mittelstadt, his xGF impact is reduced only slightly, down to 48.84%. It’s a slight dip, but not nearly as dramatic. Whichever set of linemates he’s deployed with, he tends to make them better across the board (see replacements chart above). He’s one of the few constants in a Sabres forward group that has a lot of linemate-reliant entities.

Individual Improvements

We don’t want this to come off as an Asplund hype piece, so let’s reset and look at what Mittelstadt and Olofsson are doing well from an individual standpoint. As a duo, they have a lot of complementary skills that could conceivably make each other better.

Unsurprisingly, Olofsson ranks fifth on the Sabres in shots per-60. Conversely, Mittelstadt leads the team in primary shot-assists per-60. On paper, those two skills go hand-in-hand.

They’re also both very productive players on the rush, a strategy that Granato seems to be implementing instead of a dump-and-chase and/or cycle approach. This of course can only help their perceived value in the eyes of the coaching staff.

This next part is where Granato’s deployment technique for this line comes into play. Mittelstadt and Asplund struggle at entering the zone with control. Olofsson is a little better at it than his linemates, but as a trio, it’s a weak point.

Granato has mitigated this issue by giving this line a very high proportion of offensive-zone starts at nearly 58% according to Natural Stat Trick. By reducing the need for them to do a thing they’re all mediocre (or worse) at, he’s helping facilitate the positive xG rates I mentioned in the last section.

Using my eyes, there are a few more obvious recent individual developments to note as well. As previously mentioned, Olofsson’s elite shooting ability seems to have returned to form after a lengthy dry spell as he returned from injury. As a result, his finishing impacts have experienced an improvement.

As for Mittelstadt, he’s hesitating with the puck more than we’d like to see, but he seems to have built up enough chemistry with his linemates where his playmaking ability has improved. This ties together with his primary shot-assist rate I mentioned above. I anticipate that rate will continue to climb as the year comes to a close.

There are remaining concerns as it pertains to his defensive game (especially unsettling given the fact that the organization seems set on him at center versus the wing). That said, Asplund’s presence has served to take come of that load off his shoulders and allows him to focus on what he does best, offensively.

Closing Thoughts

For a good chunk of the season, there has been some debate as to which of Olofsson and/or Mittelstadt would be moved in a trade this summer. I’m no longer confident that either of them will be dealt. If they continue to post strong results over the last eight games of the season, Kevyn Adams might have to recalculate his interest in retaining pending UFA, Vinnie Hinostroza.

With potential AHL graduates like Jack Quinn, JJ Peterka, and even Brett Murray waiting in the wings, the Sabres already have something of a forward logjam to address this summer. Retaining Hinostroza makes even less sense than it did at the trade deadline (when it was revealed that both parties were interested in extension talks). If Mittelstadt and Olofsson finish strong, it’ll make the 27-year-old even more expendable than he already is.

If I were in Adams’ shoes, I’d still look into dealing Mittelstadt. I do not feel that he has a well-rounded enough skillset to survive as a center in the NHL. He’s a young player who produces at about a half-point per-game clip. On paper, that’s a nice additional piece to send away in pursuit of a right-handed defenseman, or perhaps even a veteran netminder.

Either way, it will be interesting to see if and how Adams decides to leverage his assets this summer. That statement isn’t limited to Mittelstadt and Olofsson, but they are the two players on the roster (of significance) whose futures probably hold the most ambiguity as things stand.

Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Hockeyviz, and All Three Zones
Advanced Stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey, and Natural Stat Trick

Photo Credit: Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images