As you’re probably already aware, the Buffalo Sabres didn’t do much of anything at the NHL trade deadline. Of the eight pending UFA assets on his team’s ledger, Kevyn Adams elected to trade just one of them when he sent defenseman Robert Hagg to Florida for a sixth-round draft pick. While a lot of the focus has been on the team’s curious decision to retain Colin Miller, the more interesting player to examine is Vinnie Hinostroza.

For about a week leading up to the deadline, I had a sneaking suspicion that the Sabres would hang onto the 27-year-old winger. I wrote about it last week, so we won’t relitigate it too much, but they seemed to be giving him big minutes beside premier linemates since his return from injury.

Adams confirmed that suspicion during his post-deadline press conference, confirming the team’s interest in a contract extension. Hinostroza echoed the sentiment today in a conference with members of the Buffalo media.

Vinnie knows. #LetsGoBuffalo

— Buffalo Sabres (@BuffaloSabres) March 23, 2022

Again, I wrote about the pros and cons of a Hinostroza extension already as it pertains to the player himself. The mutual interest has catalyzed a new conversation about the Sabres’ forward group moving forward, and the potential logjam they could face heading into the 2022-23 season.

Forwards Under Contract

As it stands, the Sabres have 15 NHL-caliber forwards under contract for next season (16 if you want to include Arttu Ruotsalainen). That number includes pending RFA Victor Olofsson. It also includes current Rochester Amerks, Jack Quinn, JJ Peterka, and Brett Murray. For the sake of the exercise, we’re going to assume Hinostroza is retained, while players like Cody Eakin and John Hayden are allowed to hit the open market.

This represents a bit of a logjam. Money isn’t a problem. The Sabres are going to be well below the cap floor this summer. That said, there are only 12 forward spots on an NHL roster. This issue existed before the revelation that Hinostroza was an extension candidate. That news only exacerbates the issue.

Aside from Anders Bjork, there is no obvious candidate to either place on waivers or serve as a regular healthy scratch. Frankly, if Adams does indeed finalize a Hinostroza extension, he probably needs to move two existing contracts off the forward ledger to make the necessary room.

Sure, there’s a case for leaving Peterka and Murray in the AHL for another year, but it isn’t the most sensible argument. Peterka is already approaching point-per-game status against inferior opponents in the AHL. He’s earned his chance with the big club. For an organization that seems to be preaching a policy of “earn your spot” it’s tough to argue against the 20-year-old. 

While Murray isn’t quite as productive offensively, he is going to be 24 years old when the 2022-23 season begins. During a 19-game stint with Buffalo this season, he acquitted himself well, posting six points and a relative xG/60 rate of .07 in that time. A small sample to be sure, but he looks ready for bottom-six duties at the NHL level.

Potential Solutions

So, we’ve identified the problem, but I don’t want this to come off as doom and gloom. I have trust in the Sabres’ talent evaluators, and if they feel that they need to keep Hinostroza, that’s fine. If they do it at the expense of the young, NHL-ready assets, then I’ll take issue with it.

Fortunately, resolving the impending logjam is far from insurmountable. Let’s assess how Adams can go about not only resolving it but also addressing other areas of need in the process.

Before we get into some trade ideas, I want to clarify a few points. For starters, these hypothetical deals are not necessarily listed in order of preference. They’re also not mutually exclusive in the sense that, I’m not looking at them as “either/or” options. Any combination of the following would go a certain way toward mitigating the aforementioned logjam.

Trade Option 1 – Casey Mittelstadt and a 2022 1^st (FLA) to the New Jersey Devils for Damon Severson

This is a big one. Candidly, I don’t know why a team like the Devils would ever trade Severson. His $4.167 million cap hit for next season is manageable and he’s only 27 years old. Still, Frank Seravalli did have him ranked 14^th on his tradebait board leading up to the NHL trade deadline.

Severson is a bonafide top-pairing right-shot defenseman, hence the high cost here. You would be hard-pressed to find a player with a more well-rounded game on the blue line. He can produce points and provide a shutdown presence on the back end. Again, I’m baffled that the team allowing the fourth-most goals-against in the NHL would entertain moving him.

On the other side of the deal, Mittelstadt would serve as a potential replacement for Pavel Zacha, a pending RFA whom which the Devils could move on from. New Jersey also adds a late first to their cupboard to perhaps use in another deal to acquire something else.

Trade Option 2 – Victor Olofsson and Anders Bjork (50% retained) to the Carolina Hurricanes for Ethan Bear and a conditional 2023 3^rd

This idea at least feels a little more realistic. Carolina gets a goal-scoring winger in Olofsson to help replace the production left behind by pending UFA’s Vincent Trochek and Nino Niederreiter. Just one year removed from trading Warren Foegele for Bear, the Hurricanes will want a similar return back on their investment.

On the right side of the Hurricanes defense, Bear has been an under-appreciated entity. He’s a legitimate offensive play-driver on the back end. Out of the 241 NHL defensemen to play at least 200 even-strength minutes this season, Bear ranks 13^th with an xGF/60 rate of 3.03.

His defensive game could use some fine-tuning, but his offensive impacts far outweigh anything he gives back in his own end. It is a bit curious how such a positively impactful player has fallen back into trade discussions just a year after arriving in Carolina.  

The last component of this deal is the draft pick. The Sabres are taking a bit of a risk here. Despite his streaky nature, Olofsson is one of the best goal-scoring entities on the team. In that light, the third-round pick coming back from Carolina turns into a second-rounder if Olofsson pots 25 or more goals in 2022-23.

Trade Option 3 – Brett Murray to the Florida Panthers for Radko Gudas and a 2023 4^th

Everyone knows I’m a big proponent of acquiring Gudas, so this idea shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. Next season, the Sabres are going to ice three LHD under the age of 23 in Dahlin, Power, and Samuelsson. A steady, physical veteran presence who can move up and down the lineup on the right side would be a welcome addition.

Gudas’ reputation as a dirty player has overshadowed how good he is. His positive impacts from his time with the Philadelphia Flyers and Washington Capitals have transitioned seamlessly to Florida. That said, the Panthers are going to be in a serious salary cap crunch this summer.

Inevitably, Bill Zito will need to unload salary. He has five pending UFA’s in his forward group. In this trade, he gets a cost-effective forward in Murray to replace one of the bottom-six entities he’ll inevitably lose. The Panthers throw a sweetener the Sabres’ way for taking Gudas’ $2.5 million AAV salary off their books. If he wasn’t a solid player, it would have been a more lucrative pick coming back, but since he’s still a very serviceable RHD, a fourth seemed appropriate.

Closing Thoughts

In general, I’m probably a little more open to the idea of a Hinostroza extension than some of my Sabres analytics cohorts. While the Sabres have made finding competent middle-six players look like rocket science over the past decade, it’s not a difficult thing to do. If Adams feels that Hinostroza is a big part of the locker room shift, I can live with a reasonable contract extension (resembling something in the two-year, $2.5-2.8 AAV range). He’s a solid player, and they could certainly do worse in the UFA market.

Maybe I’m being overly optimistic, but on paper, alleviating the impending forward logjam doesn’t look overly difficult. On the flip side, I can understand Sabres fans’ apprehension after the Jason Botterill era, which was essentially defined by veteran roadblocks standing in the way of deserving youngsters. Based on what we’ve seen from Adams so far, I think he would do a better job of addressing that over-encumberment instead of compounding on it.

Perhaps this is all a moot point. There is no guarantee that Hinostroza’s camp can reach an agreement with the Sabres before the start of unrestricted free agency. Still, the mutual interest from both parties has at least sparked a conversation that will be something to monitor heading into the offseason.  

Data via: JFresh, Cap Friendly, and Evolving Hockey

Photo Credit: NHL.com