“I just really believe these next 19 games for our group are so important…We must continue to push ourselves, continue to hold each other accountable, continue to grow, and I felt that the position that we’ve put ourselves in with the group we have will allow us to keep doing that.” –Kevyn Adams

It’s not too often that a pro sports GM is as concise about their vision as Kevyn Adams was today. He’s decided that the current state of the 2021-22 Sabres deserves to stick together for the final quarter for the remainder of the season (with a little help from the non-needle-moving offers he was sent for his rentals). 

Let’s face it, the vibes have been immaculate the last 10 days, and their 4 wins have come in some big spots. Even through the losing that has been prevalent throughout the season, we’re getting a personality out of the Buffalo Sabres not only off the ice but also on it. We’re tracking to be headed into the summer with rational hope for the first time in 5 years. Let’s take the small victories where we can get them after how much doom there was at this point last year.

The Sabres will play 12 games against current playoff teams in the final 19 games, including 8 consecutive to start April, so in the matter of challenging the current group to see what they can put together among a sample of teams, they’ll look to be more competitive against next season so that they can make a major step in the standings that we frankly haven’t seen in the same stretch of 5 years. 

With that being said, however, I think it’s worth saying that there was a bit of a shock that the Sabres were one of only two teams to not make a move in the final 48 hours before the trade deadline, and I think it would be best if we talk it out instead of making too much of a stand on if today was a good day or not for the future of the organization (or if it was insignificant).

The Previous 19 Games

Conveniently enough, the previous 19 games for the Sabres go back to February 1. The Sabres have won 8 of those games, of course including 4 of the last 5 and a nice 6 of the last 9 since losing 6 in a row to end the month of February.

With underlying 5v5 comparisons, they had the Corsi advantage in 8 of the 19 games as well, and 7 of the 19 games in the 5v5 xG share (Not score-adjusted, but the hypothetical records line up there as well, per Natural Stat Trick). 

Bouncing back from losing 6 in a row, all by more than a goal, with wins against Minnesota, Vegas, Calgary, and twice against Toronto is impressive, but of course, they may have walked away from this stretch a tad lucky with two reality checks snuck in there by Florida and Edmonton. 

17 of a possible 38 points (The CBJ game on February 10 was an OTL) is a 44% point percentage – And a 73 point pace. With the team at a 41.3 point percentage pace through 63 games, the Sabres are indeed playing better since February than they have during the season as a whole. Considering the long stretch the Sabres had of goalies going in and out of the lineup between Christmas and the All-Star Break, that lines up. So while it is kind of silly to imagine that wins against Vegas and Toronto in back to back games were so monumental to the franchise that they limited the number of moves they were going to make this past weekend, the idea that the team is growing in a sense of getting better overall isn’t far-fetched. 

And I think this is where Kevyn Adams’s point starts and has the greatest magnitude: If Craig Anderson’s presence in net as a substantially better goaltender is crucial to better play from the Sabres being backed up on the scoreboard, and no return was worth that sacrifice to Kevyn Adams, then so be it that they didn’t move him. (And frankly, it keeps the team watchable for us as well)

BUT…

19 Games for the UFAs (and 17 Games for the Amerks)

…The organization as a whole finds itself with a numbers problem when it comes to placing players where they should probably be spending the rest of their seasons. 

With 23 teams making the AHL playoffs, the Amerks are set up to be getting at minimum two playoff games. Recently getting Jack Quinn and Michael Mersch back from injury is going to help keep the Amerks in the race and ahead of two of Cleveland, Bellville, and Syracuse to at least clinch a place in the best-of-3 4 vs 5 matchups in the North division for the chance to probably play a best-of-5 against Utica. While two playoff games (At minimum) isn’t a lot, going through a stretch of 17 more games where the Amerks need to keep winning to maintain their pace, the Sabres organization believes that atmosphere is more important for their AHL rookies to spend March and April in the AHL as opposed to a 19 game run to essentially nowhere. 

My initial reaction to this is indifference since most organizations will tell you they’d prefer this for their younger players, and playoffs of any kind are great for the competitive nature of hockey players. The execution of creating this landscape, however, doesn’t fit perfectly.

Psychologically, I understand the importance of UPL getting the final run in Rochester with the majority of the starts, but with the combination of having better numbers so far in Buffalo than Rochester, his status as the next prospect in line for the Sabres, and the possibility of both Devon Levi and Erik Portillo being less than a month away from possibly getting pro games before season’s end, would it have made more sense to have an Anderson/UPL split of the final 19 games as a tryout for next season so there’s a more clear picture of what Luukonen can do in the NHL? Even with Dustin Tokarski having some really good NHL moments this season, as recently as in Calgary, Luukonen starts would be more important to the future of the Sabres than starts from Tokarski. They’ve chosen this path, so we’ll see how it plays out, but questions do remain. 

I’ve written about Mark Jankowski already this season, so I’m not going to rehash, but if there were offers for Eakin, no matter the return, Jankowski would’ve been able to slip right back into the Sabres lineup and the only beat that would’ve been skipped is in the faceoff department, where even with Eakin the Sabres are lagging behind each of their 31 fellow NHL teams. Jankowski centered Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka this past weekend where they took back-to-back wins against Cleveland, and the line was dominant and carried the production load. Sean Malone centered the two 2020 draft picks most of the season before the injury, so I would imagine that’s where he would slide back in when he returns to health, giving more of a lane for Jankowski to have been able to slide back up to Buffalo. We’ve beaten the Eakin points to death for almost two full seasons, but if a team had an offer at all for him, they probably should have taken it. But for now, the Amerks have another strong center to help them run.

With Quinn and Peterka, I think it’s a matter of both or neither of them having been called up for the end of the season stretch in Buffalo, which makes me think their placement in Rochester may have been independent of whether or not Vinnie Hinostroza was moved – if the Sabres even got an offer for him on deadline day in the first place. Let them continue to cook in Rochester for the rest of the season with the understanding that they should begin next season with the big club right out of training camp. 

Of Colin Miller, Mark Pysyk, and Will Butcher, I think it’s most surprising that Miller is still around. With the value of right-shot defensemen in this season’s market, I guess that the Sabres lost out on better returns from the teams that went ahead and decided to trade for different RDs. If it’s the case that the offers for Miller were underwhelming, I’d imagine that means Adams hasn’t ruled out bringing Miller back next season. That possibility is much more likely for Mark Pysyk, who has both been solid for them on the ice and a great morale guy off of it. Then Butcher I’d imagine didn’t get any phone calls. 

As far as asset management goes with expiring UFAs who will likely not return next season, I think the Sabres did as best they could and just came up short. But that’s okay given the players. The heavy lifting of Taylor Hall, Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Ristolainen, and Jack Eichel was already done in the past year for the premier rebuilding assets; the remaining pick of the litter was for some extra fillers. Now, with that being said, the blue line still has some questions to be answered over the final 19 games. Owen Power will likely have the chance to get some games at the end of this season; who falls out of the rotation when that happens. Do they waive Butcher to keep the handedness distribution? Does Casey Fitzgerald get sent back down despite being one of the Sabres’ four post-deadline paper recalls? Might we even see Ryan Johnson? Are we sure Dahlin and Jokiharju should stay paired together for the remainder of the year? Additional defensemen trades could’ve made this picture a little clear, but instead, we might be kicking some cans down the road.

So while every extra pick can matter more to a team in Buffalo’s position, the draft pick values they’d have potentially gotten in return may have been minuscule at best.

19 Games for Everyone Else

If we use 75 points as a hypothetical benchmark where a non-COVID stricken version of the 21-22 Sabres could’ve ended up, that historically puts them in the range of the 2016-17 (78 points) and 2018-19 (76 points) Sabres. In the tear-down season of this chapter of the greater rebuilding effort, that’s a far better starting point to aim for a wild card conversation next season as the first full seasons for Quinn, Peterka, likely Power, and perhaps even their 2022 first rounder commence. But unlike the follow-up seasons from the other two seasons in this 75 point range, the Sabres front office needs to learn from the past and ensure that they can do whatever it takes to not take a horizontal step next season.

And if they’ve decided that the final stretch is one to see what else this group can put together, then that means that evaluation of the current roster cannot carry into next season; that has to be saved for the players being held in Rochester, and if those players are going to be ready to make it to the NHL next year, there cannot be a new wave of UFAs brought in to keep them from having an October roster spot. 

With the summer opening up more opportunities for more intricate trades with more players (arbitrarily) “eligible” to be moved for hockey reasons, this final 19 game stretch is an audition for every individual player on the Sabres for their future with the organization. As fans, we are left to sit back and watch it play out and once again hope that this core will be the one to put the past demons behind them. And since we’re just the ones watching, we can take some time to enjoy whatever other silly moments this roster brings us in the final 19 games.