As the NHL trade deadline approaches, fans continue to speculate as to which of the Buffalo Sabres’ expiring assets will be dealt. One of the more prominent pending UFA pieces on the team’s ledger is forward, Vinnie Hinostroza.

Since his return from injury last week, the 27-year-old has posted four points in as many games. Following his two-goal performance in the Heritage Classic game yesterday, I noticed a lot of fans seemed apprehensive about trading the middle-six winger.

Initially, it struck me as odd that there seemed to be a 50/50 split between fans who expressed interest in re-signing him, and those who preferred to see him dealt for futures. Naturally, I decided to weigh the costs and benefits for both sides of the argument.

Is He Even Good?

Before we get into a cost-benefit analysis, we need to understand whether or not he’s even good. While his scoring rate paces him out at just under half a point per game (38 point pace over 82 games), his underlying numbers are extremely average.

At first blush, his current xGF rate of 42.23% (ninth among Sabres forwards who have appeared in at least 20 games this season), looks rough. Contextually speaking, we have to consider the fact that his four most common linemates this year are Dylan Cozens, Cody Eakin, Drake Caggiula, and Anders Bjork.

While Cozens is a good player (with whom he’s played well over the last few games), the other three are not. Even a line-driving entity would have trouble carrying boat anchors like that, and their negative analytical impact on a complimentary asset like Hinostroza isn’t all that surprising.

From a career standpoint, he’s produced impacts you would expect from a garden-variety third-line winger. Nothing overly beneficial or detrimental. So, to answer the original question of whether or not he’s a good player – yeah, sort of. He’s certainly better than replacement level.

Market Value

There is a market demand question at both ends of this debate spectrum. For the group that would like to see Hinostroza traded, it’s a question of what type of future piece he could garner in return. As for those in the retention camp, it’s a question of what type of money and term would he command in an extension scenario.

Let’s start with the former. Hinostroza is your quintessential middle-six depth acquisition for a contending team that isn’t looking to mortgage significant futures (i.e. a first-round pick or high-end prospect). He’s also an attractive option for teams that are tight against the salary cap limit, given his manageable salary (1.05 million AAV).

As a player who can provide speed and two-way competence, he’d be able to contribute best on a team that uses a counter-rush style of offensive attack. Some teams that might fit this description (stylistically, financially, and in terms of available futures) are the Minnesota Wild, Edmonton Oilers, and St. Louis Blues.

As an inexpensive, high-energy asset, there will be a market for his services. While I think the aspirations of a second-round pick are perhaps overly optimistic, I do feel that a third-round draft choice is well within the realm of possibility.

Switching gears toward the prospect of a contract extension, now we must assess Hinostroza’s market value as a UFA. For the sake of argument, we’ll assume that he’s even interested in an extension with the Sabres.

In my search for a recent UFA forward who produces similarly to Hinostroza, I decided that Mattias Janmark was probably the closest comparable. It’s important to clarify that their respective playing styles are vastly different (Janmark is more of a physical grinder, while Hinostroza’s game is predicated upon speed in transition), but the statistical comps are tough to ignore.

When he signed his one-year, $2 million contract with the Vegas Golden Knights last season, Janmark was one year older than Hinostroza is now. In his six seasons at the NHL level, Janmark has averaged 31 points per 82 games played. Hinostroza has averaged just under 35 points under the same criteria. Given the fact that Janmark was coming off a recent Stanley Cup Finals run with the Dallas Stars, it probably gave his market value a bit of a boost as well.

In terms of fancy stats, Hinostroza has an advantage, but there is also no evidence to suggest that NHL general managers consider things like this, so it’s sort of a moot point. Still, it’s worth factoring into the discussion from a cost-analysis standpoint.

Adjusting for the fact that Janmark probably took a bit of a haircut to sign with a cup contender (or so we thought, anyway), I would project Hinostroza’s next deal to be somewhere in the realm of 2-3 years at $2.5-$2.8 million AAV.

Too Many Heads

This might be the most important factor in the debate, and it’s probably the thing I’ve seen discussed the least. By my count, the Sabres already have 12-15 NHL-caliber forwards on the books for next season. That’s not to say that they couldn’t move bodies with term to make room on the roster, but that’s a lot of existing assets to account for.

Without really considering line chemistry, here is a rough look at the forward group currently under contract (RFA included) for 2022-23:

Skinner – Thompson – Tuch

Krebs – Cozens – Okposo

Asplund – Mittelstadt – Quinn

Peterka – Girgensons – Olofsson

Murray – Ruotsalainen – Bjork

That’s five full NHL-caliber lines already. Even if you take the Murray-Ruotsalainen-Bjork line out of the equation, who sits if you re-sign Hinostroza? Aside from maybe Olofsson, I can’t make a good argument for anyone, and that’s only if Olofsson doesn’t rediscover his shot over the final stretch of games.

Having too many NHL forwards is a good problem to have, but the worst-case scenario would be Hinostroza blocking a spot for a worthy youngster. Sabres fans have seen that movie too many times. Even though he’s much more than a veteran anchor, is he talented enough to justify leaving someone like JJ Peterka in Rochester for another year? I’d argue not.

Conclusion

Before sitting down and examining the situation, I had drawn a line in the sand with trade compensation. I had it in my head that if the Sabres couldn’t get “X” in return for Hinostroza, then they should simply try to re-sign him.

I now think that viewpoint is overly simplistic. There aren’t any “earmarked” NHLers on the 2022-23 roster who I could justify either sitting or trading away to make room for Hinostroza in the lineup. It would preclude the Sabres from pursuing another forward upgrade solely due to headcount. They’d have to move two of Mittelstadt, Olofsson, or Bjork and even then it would be tight.

At the end of the day, I won’t have a dramatic reaction regardless of what Kevyn Adams decides to do here. If he elects to deal Hinostroza, I’ll probably golf-clap at the mid-round pick return and move on. If he re-signs him on a short-term deal, I’ll shrug and wonder how they’re going to make room for graduating youngsters and/or outside reinforcements to the forward group.

If it were up to me, I would choose the former. Acquire another draft pick, and give yourself another trade asset as you pursue a position of more paramount need (specifically, a right-shot defenseman).

Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Corey Sznajder

Advanced Stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

Photo Credit: NHL.com