The Buffalo Sabres have consistently struggled to break down defensive structures that don’t allow them to utilize their rush game. Throughout a season, you would think that a team could figure out some strategy to counter a defensive system that clogs up the neutral zone. Unfortunately, they continue to lack solutions.

The club continues to heavily favor a system that relies on controlled offensive-zone entries under Don Granato. That’s a fine approach overall as I’ve discussed previously. It’ll likely lead to more offense with improved talent, however, you need to be able to adjust.

Microstats

Corey Sznajder’s tracking data paints the picture of how much the Sabres rely on rush offense in their system. In Corey’s data, they rank seventh in the league in carry-in percentage at 5 on 5. This means they carry the puck into the offensive zone at a higher rate than most teams.

On the flip side, they dump the puck into the offensive zone at one of the lowest rates per 60 minutes. They’re second-lowest in the league, only ahead of the Arizona Coyotes. They’re not as bad in forecheck pressures per 60, but still below average as they rank 19th.

The interesting part is that the Sabres are average in regards to their recovery rate on dump-ins. They rank 17th in Corey’s data with a 43.9% recovery rate. The caveat is they can’t generate offense against a setup, structured defense. They rank 27th in chances per dump in attempt.

Part of this issue is the lack of offensive talent throughout the forward group. This shows up in their inability to convert offensive zone recoveries into scoring chances. A few months ago I wrote about how they also struggle to convert rush attempts into chances.

Having said that, there are issues systematically in how the Sabres attempt to run their offense against a neutral zone trap defensive game plan. This was brought to the forefront against the Los Angeles Kings on Sunday.

There are too many times when the players are stationary in the neutral zone waiting for the puck to be dumped in. This reduces their ability to recover the puck and essentially acts as a turnover.

The screenshot below is an example of what I’m talking about. Jeff Skinner has shot the puck into the offensive zone. Tage Thompson is standing still and Peyton Krebs is skating away from the offensive zone.

There are too many times where they looked confused in the neutral zone if they should be trying to carry the puck through the neutral zone or put it behind the defense. The hesitation often results in turnovers or bad retrieval plays.

They’re likely going to get another test in their ability to generate offense without rush chances tonight with the Vegas Golden Knights in town. If you recall the last two times these clubs met at the beginning of February, the Golden Knights feasted off of neutral zone turnovers. They played a 1-1-3 neutral zone system and the Sabres kept skating into it and coughing it up. It looked something like this:

To break the clip down to show you the structure of the Vegas defense, here are the two forwards lined up in the neutral zone:

Here is a look at the three guarding the defensive blue line that are daring the Sabres to dump it in behind them:

They had no answer for it all night and it was frustrating to watch play out continuously throughout the game.

Vegas will be without Robin Lehner tonight due to injury, so I would expect some sort of similar approach on the road. If they don’t have an answer for it tonight it’s going to look a lot like the Kings game, but the Golden Knights have the talent to put four to five pucks in the net off of counter-attacks from turnovers.

Granato needs to figure out a way to not only get this team to improve in this regard but moving forward as well. Teams will go to school on this and they’ll see it a lot more down the stretch when points are important this late in the season.

Data via: Corey Sznajder

Photo Credit: Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images