It’s probably safe to say that the 2023-24 campaign has not gone as expected for the Buffalo Sabres and head coach Don Granato. There is a segment of the fan base that believes the Sabres would be better off if they moved on from him.

With 23 games remaining in the season, it wouldn’t make sense for them to do anything right now. Instead, they should take that time over the final quarter of the season to solidify what they want to do moving forward.

Currently, I sit on the fence with what I think they should do. These final games, while they realistically mean nothing in the standings, will go a long way in crafting a final opinion on Granato. I can acknowledge that he has improved the team in some areas this season, but is it enough to overlook his struggles elsewhere?

Tactical Decision Making

For me, a lot of this season is tied up in the approach to reduce offensive output in shot quality for a reduction in shot quality against. In Evolving Hockey’s model at 5 on 5, they’ve dropped from 14th in the league in shot quality for per 60 minutes last season, to 23rd. On the flip side, their shot quality against at 5 on 5 has improved from being ranked 27th to 19th this season.

On one hand, they’ve achieved their goal of giving up less defensively. On the other, they’ve significantly reduced their greatest asset (offense) and are on pace to finish with 10 fewer points in the standings.

There’s clear evidence over the last two years that when the Sabres generate quality offense in a game they win more games with this roster. Going through the game logs over the last two years on the twins’ site, I could separate their record when they generated at least 2.20 expected goals in a game at 5 on 5 and when they didn’t. Here are the results:

• Over 2.20 xGF at 5 on 5: 36-22-7 (.608 points %)
• Under 2.20 xGF at 5 on 5: 33-39-4 (.461 points %)

The league average xGF/60 at 5 on 5 this season is 2.65 in Evolving Hockey’s model and it was a little higher last year. I landed on 2.20 to give a more even split in the data. If you want it, the Sabres have a .580 points % this season when they reach an xGF/60 rate of 2.65 or higher in a game.

It’s nice that the team has been the same the past two years because it allows me to feel more comfortable looking at this over two years. If there were significant changes to the roster then it could be tied up in some randomness in two different campaigns.

The overall point I’m trying to drive home is reducing the offense in favor of the defense isn’t generating wins. The obvious sweet spot is to have a team that generates high-quality offense and gives up less consistently. Under Granato, it’s a one-or-the-other approach more often than not.

Other teams around the league did their homework on the Sabres going into this season. They weren’t going to surprise anyone. The Sabres were arguably the most effective team in the NHL last year on the rush. All Three Zones’ data graded them as such.

That is where they generated most of their offense and what propelled them to a 91-point campaign. This season, teams have taken that away from them and there are no answers to this point from the Sabres coaching staff. It has forced the Sabres to dump the puck in at a higher rate this season.

In Corey’s tracking data, the Sabres have dumped the puck in on entries 34% of the time this season, up from 29% last season. They’re also recovering the puck on those dumps-ins at a lower rate of 25%. The recovery rate last year was 29%.

This roster is not built to play a forechecking style. They’re the worst team in the league generating shots off the forecheck/cycle in their tracking data.

At the other end of the ice, the exits are also poor this season. They’ve gone from exiting the zone 82% of the time with possession to 68% this season.

It doesn’t allow them to get a counter-attacking offense going which feeds into the rush offense that I just mentioned.

One thing that has stuck with me for about a month now is something Kevyn Adams said on WGR550 when he spoke on the Schopp and Bulldog show. He was asked what he thinks went wrong with the team this season and one of the few things he mentioned was the players stuck in-between what to do.

That, in my opinion, was the first sign that Adams had some concern with how the players were being coached. They’re playing with hesitation because they’re not relying on their instincts. Instead, they’re overthinking because they don’t know what game they’re supposed to be playing that night. Is it a low-event contest or are they going to get out and run?

I also know there is organizational concern about the clubs’ inability to get to the high-scoring areas on the ice this season. In Hockeyviz’s heat map below, it’s a clear visual of how the Sabres are taking more shots from the outside.

The excuse isn’t well it’s a soft team and they won’t go to the middle of the ice. Nonsense, this is the same roster that did it last season as one of the highest-scoring teams in the league at 5 on 5.

Granato continues to make some interesting decisions late in games outside of the system issues. In particular when his team is trailing. There have been some poor decisions on late-game deployment.

We can look no further than Tuesday’s game against the Florida Panthers. Granato sends his top line of Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner, and Alex Tuch onto the ice with about 2:30 left in the game. That trio keeps the puck in the Panthers zone for 20 seconds and Granato does not pull his goaltender in that time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen wouldn’t end up getting off the ice until under 30 seconds remaining.

The issue here is that when your top scoring line is on the ice the goaltender should be pulled as early as possible in that sequence. Waiting and letting that group get tired is an inefficient process. The team gets a sixth attacker, but the top-scoring forwards are now either changing because the coach waited 30-40 seconds into their shift or are trying to score at the end of the shift when a turnover is more likely because of fatigue.

The pulling of the goaltender has been an issue for three years. He’s afraid to pull too early for fear that his team will lose possession and give up an empty netter. While that’s understandable, getting the goalie out with under a minute left gives his club little opportunity to capitalize on the man advantage.

They’ve scored three goals this season with the goalie pulled. For two of those Granato pulled the goalie with over 2:30 left in the game. Full disclosure, the Sabres were down multiple goals in both scenarios. Therefore, Granato thinks he has little to lose if he gives up an empty net goal. However, pulling the goalie sooner has yielded more positive results.

Defensive Improvements

I mentioned it at the beginning, but Granato has improved one of the key goals going into this season. He has his team giving up less and 5 on 5 and the penalty kills have improved.

They’re a league-average team this season in shot quality against at 5 on 5 and are 12th at goals against per 60 minutes. Part of that, of course, is due to Luukkonen’s excellent season. That still shouldn’t take away from improving in an area we all wanted to see.

The penalty kill has improved from one of the worst in the NHL last season to average this year. Some of that again, is on the back of Luukkonen, but quality against is improved from a league rankings standpoint.

I still feel that the team believes in him as a coach and wants to succeed for him. This isn’t an issue with the team tuning him out. The injury situation has been tough to mange this year and players are having down years. That isn’t entirely something that would fall at the feet of the head coach.

These last 23 games are going to be important for me as an observer. He has to show signs of having answers for what opponents are throwing at them. If he can’t figure out how to adjust and get his team in a spot to play the style of game that is best suited for them, then Adams should look for someone else behind the bench next season.

Data via: Evolving Hockey, All Three Zones, and Hockeyviz

Photo Credit: Isaiah J. Downing | Credit: USA TODAY Sports