Leading up to the 2020-21 NHL season, there was a general consensus that the East Division was, on paper, the most difficult division in hockey. Though it’s still very early in the year, there are trends taking place which could ultimately indicate that the strength of the Buffalo Sabres’ division rivals was overestimated.

The sample size is small, and a lot can change between now and the end of the season. That said, the early returns suggest a more evenly-matched division than initially anticipated. Add that to the fact that the current underlying numbers are in pretty stark contrast with the preseason prognostications (from a team ranking standpoint), and things could get very interesting in short order.

Let’s take a look at how each team has started the 2020-21 campaign in relation to their preseason expectations.

Performing as Expected

Boston Bruins

The Bruins are the one team that I feel most comfortable about in relation to where I had them pegged before the season. With six games-played to date, they rank sixth in the NHL with a team xGF mark of 54.96-percent. Even more impressive is that they’ve maintained a similar expected goal-share to what they produced in 2018-19, and they’re doing it without David Pastrnak (who is due to return in the next couple weeks).

Equally impressive is the fact that Boston has managed to kick things off with a 4-1-1 record despite holding the worst even-strength PDO mark in the division at .949. Their strong xGF metrics are making up for the fact that they are shooting at 4.2-percent so far (second-lowest conversion rate in the NHL), with a save-percentage of just .907 at five-on-five.

Once we see some inevitable positive regressions in PDO, the Bruins should catapult to the top of the division with relative ease. The only thing that could hold them back is if they experience significant injuries on what is a very shallow blue line.

New York Islanders

Though a lot of folks had the Islanders on the playoff fringe in the East Division, they are off to a strong start, analytically despite currently holding a record of 3-3-0. As could be presumed given Barry Trotz’s reputation as a tactician, New York has stuck to their low-event system for results. Similar to last season, their overall xGF rate continues to hover around 50-percent at five-on-five.

On top of the fact that the Islanders have done a historically good job at suppressing danger, Semyon Varlamov is also off to an excellent start in net. His all-situations GSAx rate of .817 is good for fifth in the NHL right now.

Part of the reason the Islanders are hovering at .500 is the fact that they’ve done a really poor job of converting scoring chances in the early-going. Only the Bruins and Dallas Stars hold a lower team shot-percentage than New York’s current clip of 5.1-percent.

Falling Short of Expectations

Philadelphia Flyers

Personally, I didn’t buy the Flyers hype this offseason. In completing the research for our positional rankings series, it became clear to me that Philadelphia likely out-performed relative to expectations last season. This can happen when your goaltender (in this case, Carter Hart) is playing at an elite level.

Unfortunately, Hart hasn’t exactly picked up where he left off, holding a current GSAx rate of -.875 at five-on-five. Equally concerning is the fact that the Flyers’ expected-goal rate (last in the division at 45.40-percent) has remained consistently bad through seven games and isn’t showing any signs of trending upward.

To compound on the issue is the fact that Philadelphia is converting shots at a rate of 11.55-percent. The top team shooting-percentage in the NHL last season was 9.56-percent, so a negative regression is pretty much certain to take place there as well.

Unless Hart gets back to the level he was at to close the 2018-19 campaign, his club could fall well short of expectations. That said, when Sean Couturier returns from injury, their xG share should improve. To what extent remains to be seen. As of Tuesday, there was still no timetable for the 28-year-old’s return.

Pittsburgh Penguins

I might have to end up eating crow when it comes to the Penguins. In my research for the positional ranking series, I was intrigued by what appeared to be a strong top-six, and an extremely underrated defensive top-four. For years, fans have anticipated a performance drop-off for an aging Pittsburgh side, and it’s possible that father time has finally caught up to the perennial powerhouse.

Right now, the Penguins are pretty average in terms of leaguewide xG differential. Last season, they ranked in the top-10 in that category. While their expected offensive production hasn’t been too bad, they’re getting torched defensively to start the year (24^th in the NHL with an xGA/60 rate of 2.50).

To make matters worse, starting netminder Tristan Jarry is off to a horrible start after a solid campaign in 2019-20. At the moment his GSAx rate ranks in the bottom-10 leaguewide. We’ll see if those struggles continue, but with a very shaky defensive system in place, the Penguins will need their offensive pieces to pick up the slack if they intend to nail-down a playoff spot.

Headed for a Drop-off

Washington Capitals

As it stands, the Capitals sit atop the East Division, and through seven games, they’ve yet to suffer a regulation loss. At the beginning of the season, I saw the Capitals as a near-lock to make the playoffs based on their production from 2018-19. While a performance drop-off was likely, I didn’t feel that it would be extreme enough to push them out of contention in 2020-21.

My premise was correct, but perhaps for the wrong reasons. Their 4-0-3 start has been largely due to the outstanding play of rookie netminder Vitek Vanecek. I should clarify that the Capitals aren’t playing poorly overall. They’re maintaining a respectable team xGF rate of 50.45-percent.

Still, some sort of standing regression is likely to take place. Their expected goal share ranks them 15^th in the league behind division rivals in the Bruins, Sabres, Islanders, and Rangers. While said regression probably won’t be extreme enough to push them out of the divisional top-four, it would come as a surprise to see them maintain their division lead at their current clip.

New Jersey Devils

Sabres fans should be pretty familiar with what the 2020-21 Devils are currently experiencing. Despite pretty abysmal team metrics, New Jersey has ridden a hot goaltending tandem and a league-high PDO mark of 1.0524 to a 3-2-1 record. While their success isn’t as pronounced as the early-season Sabres have experienced over the past couple years, they are still winning at an unsustainable rate.

Despite facing two of the most difficult workloads in the NHL (in terms of xGA), Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood currently rank third and ninth, respectively with GSAx rates of 3.90 and 2.25 at even-strength. Blackwood is an excellent young netminder, but that seems like a very difficult standard to maintain, especially given how little help he’s getting out in front of him.

Inevitably, these goaltending numbers will level-out and the Devils will need to improve upon their team xGF rate of 45.66-percent (ranked 25^th in the league). For a franchise that is notoriously strong defensively, Lindy Ruff’s squad is sporting the second-highest xGA/60 mark in the NHL at 2.66.

Due for Positive Regression

Buffalo Sabres

Most people wouldn’t have believed you a month ago if you told them that through seven games, the Sabres would have the highest expected-goal share in the division. Mainstream media and analytics writers alike had the Sabres projected on the playoff fringe (at best). Right now, they look like a group that will stay in the playoff conversation right up to the end.

After their victory over the New York Rangers on Tuesday night, Buffalo now carries a 3-3-1 record while holding a team xGF-percentage of 57.57, good for fourth in the league. Of all the teams in the East Division, the Sabres’ record is probably the least reflective of their play to date.

As is the case with a few of their division rivals, Buffalo has been bit by the PDO bug in the early-going. Only the Bruins and Chicago Blackhawks have experienced less “puck luck” through seven games.

New York Rangers

Part of me wants to feel a little vindicated here. In my preseason standings projection, I had the Rangers barely edging-out the Devils for last-place in the division. From an analytics standpoint, there was a case to be made that they had the weakest roster in the division, and would be perhaps the most reliant on strong goaltending.

I have to be fair here. Thus far, the Rangers have probably performed better than their record indicates. With a team xGF percentage of 51.43, they rank third in the East behind Buffalo and Boston, respectively. Their netminder tandem of Alexander Georgiev and Igor Shesterkin have also played pretty well.

Essentially, the Rangers are losing a lot of close games. They’ve lost their last four contests by one goal, and at some point, you would expect their fortunes to shift. I will say that of all the East Division clubs currently holding positive team xG rates, I feel the Rangers are the least likely to maintain theirs, but they’re not as bad as their 1-4-1 record indicates.

Modified Prognosis

As I’ve already iterated several times – it’s early. With about 10-12 percent of the season in the books (depending on which East Division team you’re referring to), a lot can, and likely will change from where things stand at this time.

That being said, I feel that there is enough evidence here to say that the East Division is much more competitive and evenly-matched than was initially projected, particularly as it pertains to the Sabres and where they could ultimately land.

Right now, it seems like Boston is the class of the division and while Washington should see something of a regression, their hot start could be enough to carry them into a top-four spot, depending on when said regression actually occurs.

After that, the division is wide open. At the end of the day, I see this being a dog fight for the final two playoff spots, and there isn’t a single team I’d be comfortable writing-off at this point (except maybe New Jersey). Injuries and unforeseen COVID-19 difficulties could throw a wrench in things for any of the teams in contention, but when healthy, the middle of this division is very evenly-matched

This is obviously good news for Buffalo. If they can continue to produce positive xGF metrics, the PDO concerns will resolve themselves (to an extent). Kevyn Adams should still be working the phones every day until he acquires a starting netminder, but if his team can stay relatively healthy, an upward trajectory in the standings looks like a strong possibility.

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