Despite their recent record, there are a lot of interesting topics surrounding the Buffalo Sabres right now. While most of the attention is on the team’s younger entities (and rightfully so), the oldest skater on the roster is experiencing a rebirth of his own.

After last season, a vast majority of Sabres fans felt that Kyle Okposo was no longer an NHL player. In 35 games he managed only 13 points, (a total that he has already matched in just 21 contests so far this season), and his even-strength xGF rate of 38.16% was by far the lowest of his career. He was slow, broken, and expensive.

While that last descriptor is still true, Okposo looks like a new man this season under Don Granato. He is doing a lot of the same things that made him the Sabres’ top-xGF forward in 2019-20. Though he’s not quite back to where he was two years ago, his current xGF rate of 48.88 is the fourth-best mark among Sabres forwards.

In perusing his advanced numbers, there are several that are contributing to his improved underlying (and base statistical) production. Let’s dig in and examine what he’s doing well, and how he’s being impacted by linemate and deployment changes.

The Krueger Theory

The easy explanation for Okposo’s 2020-21 struggles would be to say “Ralph Krueger” and simply walk away. The data goes a certain way toward “debunking” that theory. In Krueger’s inaugural season (2019-20) Okposo produced the second-highest xGF rate of his career at 53.44%.

So, what happened between year one, and year two? For starters, the then 32-year-old was no longer playing alongside two historically strong xG players in Johan Larsson (left via free agency) and Zemgus Girgensons (missed the season due to injury). As a result, his offensive zone-start rate increased from 38.42% in 2019-20, up to nearly 48% in 2020-21.

Theoretically, that should have helped Okposo, right? Well, while that OZS increase is nice in theory, his two most common linemates were Cody Eakin and Tobias Rieder. Going from Larsson to one of the lowest ixG/60 forwards in the NHL as your primary centerman will have… a certain effect.

You could make the argument that playing him with Eakin as his primary defensive centerman is a Krueger problem (and you would be correct), it’s not like there was a viable alternative on the roster. Compounding on that problem was the Girgensons injury, leaving Okposo as the only forward in the bottom-six with a history of posting positive defensive impacts.

Return of the Zemgus

While Okposo has been reacclimated with Girgensons as his most consistent linemate this year, Eakin remains the centerman with whom he’s spent the most time. What’s even more surprising is that Okposo’s xGF rate with Eakin this year is 53.08% per Natural Stat Trick. Sans Eakin, Okposo’s xGF drops down to around 49% (while Eakin’s plummets to 28.72%).

Simply put, the combined forces of Girgensons and Okposo can withstand playing alongside an extremely flawed center. Okposo couldn’t singlehandedly elevate both Eakin and Rieder in Girgensons’ wake last year.

It’s also worth noting that nothing has changed in terms of zone deployment. Okposo’s OZS rate currently stands at 39.74% with Eakin (and only a shade higher without him). This whole topic also begs the question – have we been undervaluing Girgensons? Perhaps that’s a conversation for another time.

If we want to go back in time even further, we could point to how poorly Okposo fared in 2017-18 and 2018-19. With a perpetually changing cast of linemates during that stretch, he posted xGF rates of 42.94 and 44.76, respectively. So, in a way, his excellent underlying production in 2019-20 was more of an “outlier” than his abysmal 2020-21 campaign.

Among all the statistical inconsistencies (year-over-year) in Okposo’s metrics, his positive impacts alongside Girgensons are very consistent. Away from him, things are spotty at best.

Transition and Recovery

Wait so, we can conclude this article with “linemates” and call it a day, right? Not so fast.

To this point, we’ve pretty much summarized that Okposo has struggled in Buffalo when he’s not playing with Girgensons. Now that his partner is back, Okposo has regained the metrics he experienced as a member of the famed “LOG Line” in 2019-20. According to Natural Stat Trick, his current xGF rate of 51.02% is nearly identical to what he posted two seasons ago.

But there’s more to it, right? Just watching Okposo’s game, it’s clear that he’s a different player. He’s no longer skating like he’s attached to a bulldozer, and he’s rediscovered his aggression as a forechecker. It’s part of the reason he’s on pace to produce 50-points this season, despite starting his shifts in the defensive zone over two-thirds of the time.

Dell save to an Okposo goal, 1-0 #LetsGoBuffalo #NHLBruins pic.twitter.com/c2EvaAgkiX

— Buffalo Hockey Moments (@SabresPlays) November 25, 2021

So, is it a coincidence, or is there something about GIrgensons’ and Okposo’s skill sets that makes them so effectively complimentary? As a stats guy, I tend to lean away from a coincidence in most cases.

The first thing I looked at here was the transition numbers. Unsurprisingly, I found that both Okposo and Girgensons were pretty pedestrian (or less) in this regard. Eakin is no better. So, how can a line with that heavy of an OZS rate succeed at flipping the ice if they aren’t exiting and entering zones with control?

The answer lies in the forechecking numbers. Both Okposo and Girgensons have histories of posting great puck-recovery numbers in the offensive zone. In layman’s terms, they’re good dump-and-chase players. On the charts below, you’ll see how Okposo stacked up against his teammates in this regard last year (left), and how the LOG Line fared in this area two years ago (right).

The lack of controlled transitions, while Okposo is on the ice, isn’t as problematic given how well he and Girgensons perform in retrieval. Okposo’s reinvigorated skating and general aggression have only helped to fortify that existing ability. Though there are no available underlying stats on defensive-zone retrievals, I would imagine that his skill set would translate in that regard as well.

Though Okposo isn’t creating a lot of offensive danger while he’s on the ice, he’s doing a good job of helping the Sabres maintain possession in the offensive zone. This, in turn, has resulted in less time spent hemmed-in defensively, and therefore better xGA metrics. He’s helping make it difficult for opposing teams to flip the ice.

Good Eye, Sniper

The last thing I want to touch on is Okposo’s shooting metrics. We’ve covered his increase in energy and tenacity, but lost in all this is how much more frequently and effectively he’s shooting the puck.

As I just stated, Okposo’s on-ice xGF/60 rate is low. Despite that, his actual GF rate is above-average. The reason for that is how well he’s shooting above-expected this year. Last season, Okposo registered 45 shots in 35 games (about 1.29 shots per game). This season, he’s already surpassed that mark with 52 shots in 21 games (2.48 shots per game).

To compound on this penchant for increased shooting frequency, he’s converting his shots at an 11.5% rate. That is leaps and bounds better than the 4.4% mark he put up in 2020-21. The good news is that the shooting percentage we’re seeing this season isn’t a career outlier. In his 14-year NHL career, he holds a goal rate of 10.3%.

What is somewhat new is the aforementioned shot-attempt rate we’re seeing. Individually speaking, it’s the highest per-game rate he’s produced. It’s the highest rate he’s posted in that area since signing with the Sabres in 2016.

It’s always a good thing when good shooters… you know, shoot more. Hopefully, that continues, as the results have been favorable (the most significant factor in his current 23-goal pace).

Closing Thoughts

Not to put a damper on things, but I need to make sure I’m clear. We’ve seen these types of up-and-down stretches from Okposo in years past. While the eyeball test certainly makes it seem like Okposo is a new man this season, he is 33 years old.

A downturn in production could come at any time, and frankly wouldn’t be a stunning development. At his age, and with his sordid injury history, it would be something of a surprise to see him maintain this level of drive and energy for the duration of the season.

Hopefully, he proves me wrong there. Though he’ll never produce enough to justify his salary cap hit, he’s here for two more seasons (including 2021-22). If he can keep this up for the duration of his deal, it will serve to help set a strong example for the younger players on the roster. Combine that with the same production we’re seeing now, and it will seem like money well spent in retrospect.

Advanced Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Hockeyviz, and Corey Sznajder

Photo Credit: Sara Schmidle/NHLI via Getty Images