Almost immediately after Buffalo Sabres’ starting netminder, Craig Anderson went down with an upper-body injury (which has become a long-term ordeal), it was obvious that the team needed outside help in net. Dustin Tokarski and Aaron Dell are struggling badly in platoon duty (to varying extents), while Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has experienced difficulties of his own at the AHL level.

Yesterday afternoon, Sabres fans got their wish as the team acquired goaltender, Malcolm Subban from the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for future considerations. At 27 years old, he has spent time with the Vegas Golden Knights, as well as the Blackhawks, amassing a total of 82 NHL games played since 2017.

As a player who has bounced around between the NHL and AHL over the past few years, just how much help can he provide the Sabres? I decided to dive into the underlying numbers to try and get a more accurate answer to that question.

GSAx Comparison

Obligatorily, I must first acknowledge the fact that goaltending metrics are essentially witchcraft at the NHL level. Underlying statistics for netminders are historically inconsistent, and extremely difficult to project, particularly when a goalie changes teams.

That being said, I decided not to let logic and reason stand in the way of some good old-fashioned fun. So, what do the numbers tell us? Let’s start with the incumbents in Tokarski and Dell.

Their combined GSAx metrics are some of the worst in hockey. That’s not a surprise to anyone with a pair of eyeballs. From a “per-60” standpoint (because raw GSAx numbers can be misleading depending on the sample), Dell lets in an average of 1.97 goals above-expected.

Yes, you read that correctly. In all situations, Dell lets in nearly two goals above expectation per game. That figure doesn’t even include last night’s performance against the Florida Panthers where Dell allowed five goals (expected goals-against of 2.70 according to Natural Stat Trick).

Tokarski’s mark of .35 goals-allowed above-expected is significantly better, but still pretty poor. The good news is that, over his 82-game NHL sample spanning over four seasons, Subban has fared better despite the constant shuffling to-and-from the AHL, and a change in the organization that took place in that span.

The bad news is that his per-60 mark of .25 goals-allowed above-expected is only slightly better than what Tokarski has posted this season. But that’s okay. Right now, the Sabres can survive with two goalies playing slightly-below expectation.

The key unknown factor here is whether or not Subban can either maintain or improve upon that aforementioned career mark. If he can, he’ll be well worth the acquisition price of…. Nothing.

If GSAx metrics aren’t your cup of tea, Subban’s career save percentage at the NHL-level current stands at .899. It’s pedestrian (or less), but that would still represent an improvement over the Sabres’ current team save-percentage sans Anderson. It’s worth noting, however, that Subban’s raw save-percentage of .893 with the Rockford Ice Hogs this season has been less-than-spectacular.

Closing Thoughts

It’s relatively common knowledge at this point, but it’s worth reiterating – if the Sabres had even replacement-level goaltending in Anderson’s wake, they would have 3-4 more wins on the ledger. It’s not a huge leap to think that Subban could provide that as either Tokarski’s backup, or even a rotational starter.

Conversely, he could completely fall on his face and keep the misery train rolling. Like I said before, goalies are unpredictable and will make you look stupid if you take a hard stance on them.

Either way, it’s disappointing (to say the least) that the Sabres haven’t reaped the rewards from being a team that is shooting well above expectation right now. Before yesterday’s game, they were registering 2.79 goals per-60 in all situations. That represents a massive positive disparity over their expected goals per-60 number of 2.19 on the year (second-lowest in the NHL).

That massive offensive PDO break has been washed-out by the goaltenders, who have put up a combined all-situation save percentage of .896, which ranks 27^th in the NHL. If Subban can help put a stop to the losses that have come despite the Sabres scoring three or more goals in a game (of which there have been eight already in 2021-22), it will have been a worthwhile venture.

It’s a small ask, but the likelihood of that outcome is unknown. Either way, there is a very strong chance that Subban represents a significant improvement over Dell, and that’s at least something worth rejoicing over.

Goaltender Metrics courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

Charts courtesy of Andy & Rono and Evolving Hockey

Photo Credit:  Andy Devlin/NHLI via Getty Images