Things have started to unravel quickly for the Buffalo Sabres over the last few weeks. A team that had some promise about a month ago has sunk to the bottom of the NHL standings like a rock. In most instances, you can point a few factors that have contributed to a team collapsing or you can chalk it up to injuries. The Sabres problem is obvious over the last few weeks.

Goaltending.

Horrendous Goaltending Stretch

We’ve seen a lot of really bad over the last 10 years, but this may be the worst stretch of goaltending performance we’ve ever seen. In the last 14 games, the Sabres have surrendered at least five goals in 11 of them. They’ve given up at least six goals in six straight games. Six!

They’ve allowed 52 goals in those 14 games with an expected goal number of 35.73 in all situations, according to Evolving Hockey. That means they’ve allowed 16.27 goals above expected in that 14-game stretch. Over the same calendar stretch, the second-worst team in the league is the Colorado Avalanche at 9.97 goals allowed above expected.

Just let that sink in for a moment. Since November 13th, the Sabres have allowed 6.3 goals above expected more than the second-worst team in the league.

Going back to looking at the season as a whole, the Sabres have allowed the most goals against above expected entering play last night at 16.84 in all situations, according to Moneypuck’s model. Out of 78 qualifying goaltenders to play at least 50 minutes this season, Dustin Tokarski ranks 67th in goals saved above expected and Aaron Dell is 72nd in all situations in the twins’ model.

It’s nearly impossible to win with any type of consistency when your goaltenders are putting up the numbers they are when you look at the shot-adjusted stats.

Team Defense

The trendy thing over the last week or so has been an attempt to pin just as much blame as the goaltenders are getting on team defense. Now, let me be clear. I’m not saying that the Sabres are a good club defensively. Their ceiling is average, where they were about a month ago. Over the last few weeks, they’ve been slightly below average.

On the season overall, they rank 18th in shot quality against at 5v5, according to Evolving Hockey’s model. If we break out that same 14-game stretch we looked at above for the goaltenders, they are 23rd in shot quality against. As you’ll see in Moneypuck’s chart below, they’re trending in the wrong direction in terms of team defense over a rolling 10-game view at 5v5.

With all of that out of the way, it’s time for the truth bomb: the goaltending is still far and way the reason that this team is losing games. It’s not close. This team is not bad enough defensively to give 3.74 goals against per game over the last 14 games.

Some of you may be saying to yourself to get out of the charts and just trust your eyes. The problem with that is that when you don’t line up what you’re watching with that stats you can be deceived. The Sabres are having breakdowns defensively, but they’re all magnified because it ends up in the net. They rarely get bailed out by their goaltenders and it makes it seem as though the Sabres are some atrocious defensive team. As I’ve laid out here, they’re slightly below league average in models that evaluate shot quality against. Even over the last few weeks, they’re not at the bottom of the league.

Consequences

We didn’t expect this team to be anything more than a bottom-of-league club this season, but this situation is going to come with some consequences. No matter how mentally tough the players are, it’s going to start to wear them down. Eventually, they’re going to stop taking chances and being afraid to make mistakes because of their loss of confidence in their goaltenders.

It’s a frustrating situation that is unfolding right now because we saw what kind of team they can be when they just get replacement level goaltending. They have a team on their hands that is finishing at a great rate. In Moneypuck’s model, they’re shooting 5.51 goals above expected at 5 on 5 which is good enough for fourth-best in the NHL. They’re still not generating a lot of quality offense according to expected goal models. However, they’re making the most of their chances.

The goalies have been so poor that they’re 27th in the league (-5.01) in goal differential above expected at 5 on 5. Young players on the roster are performing well offensively and not seeing the rewards from it.

Kevyn Adams tried to help the situation by acquiring Malcolm Subban from the Chicago Blackhawks. His debut didn’t go well over the weekend and even more concerning he suffered an apparent lower-body injury. With Dustin Tokarski in the Covid-19 protocol, Dell and Ukka-Pekka Luukkonen may be relied on moving forward if Subban is out.

Data via: Evolving Hockey and Moneypuck

Photo Credit: Jason Mowry / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images