We’ve reached a point in the Buffalo Sabres season where things are starting to get a little stale. The team is back to playing at pre-season expectations and there’s not a lot to break down at this point with the current state of the club.

Therefore, now feels like a good time to debut our new series we’ll be putting together on the site. Everyone loves a good trade discussion. We’ll be putting out trade scenarios and then break down the angles around that deal. Then, in the end, we’ll ask you if you would make the deal or not.

This first one is something that Anthony and I kicked around on a podcast episode about a month ago. I’ll be discussing the idea of trading for Arizona Coyotes forward Clayton Keller after the season.

Trade Scenario: Clayton Keller for the latest of the Sabres three 2022 first-round picks.

There hasn’t been a lot of rumors circling around about Keller as of late. However, the general sentiment is that the Coyotes are going to move a few more pieces off of the roster. They’re in the middle of a full rebuild and also appear to be hanging on in Arizona by a thread. That second part is a story for another day.

In this hypothetical deal, I’ll be looking at whether the Sabres should consider acquiring the scoring winger for the latest of their three first-round picks in the possession. That would likely end up being either the Vegas Golden Knights pick from the Jack Eichel trade or the Florida Panthers pick from the Sam Reinhart move.

Keller is 23-years-old and has six years remaining on his deal after this season that carries a $7.15 million cap hit.

Pro

Alright, now that I’ve set the playing field, let’s get into the meat of it. I’ve been a fan of Keller since he came out of Boston University. He was selected by the Cotoyes one pick before the Sabres grabbed Alex Nylander in the 2016 NHL Draft.

The analytics community was down on Keller his first few years in the league, but he finally started to established himself an impact player the past two seasons. You can see in Evolving Hockey’s goals above replacement model below how we was ascending the past two years.

He currently plays on the worst team in the league and is still able to impact the game offensively despite the state of that roster. He leads the team in the twins’ goals above replacement model and from a counting stats standpoint is on pace for 56 points this season.

I know that the Sabres have potential on the wing coming with Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka. However, Keller is a bonafied top six winger that fits into the age range of a rebuilding club. Keller is the type of player that would fit into the style of game that Don Granato wants to play.

He uses his speed to get out in transition to create offense. Corey Sznajder’s tracking data backs up what your eyes tell you in regards to his transition game.

You’ll see above that he was able to create offense in transition. However, he also has the ability to play within the structure of a cycle in the offensive zone using his quickness.

It may seem like a heavy price to pay to give up one of those first-round picks, but in a perfect world you hope that player selected in that spot turns into Keller. Why not speed up your rebuild with a player that fits into the age group of your team? Similar to what the Sabres did in acquiring Alex Tuch as part of the eichel trade.

Cons

That first-round pick is one of two things that will make people hesitate to pull the trigger on this move. I haven’t gone in to great depth with this upcoming draft class, but it’s hard to pass on a cost-controlled player in the middle of a rebuild. Not to mention that we saw Tim Murray try a few moves similar to this a few years ago that blew up in his face.

I don’t think because it didn’t work then doesn’t mean the Sabres should be hesitant to add young talent to their roster next offseason. This isn’t trading a first for a goalie or even giving up a large package for Evander Kane.

The other thing that will scare people off is his contract. As I mentioned, he has six years remaining after this season with a $7.15 million cap hit. That’s a big commitment on the cap to make to a player and I understand how people can be sensitive to that. Even I would agree that this is the main piece of concern I have when I consider this move.

If Keller can’t live up to the expectations it’s another dud on their salary cap to go along with Jeff Skinner’s $9 million cap anchor. The Sabres do have plenty of room on their cap, but they don’t want to blow it on mistakes.

The other small consequence of this is that Keller could block a player like Quinn, Rosen, or Peterka from getting a top-six spot. I feel that it’s a miniscule concern because of how much talent they still need to add at the NHL level, but it is something worth mentioning.

So, what would you do? Keller for the latest 2022 first-round pick, deal or no deal? We’ll add a poll in the tweet thread when this article is posted.

Photo Credit: Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Data via: Corey Sznajder, Cap Friendly, and Evolving Hockey