In a rather cruel twist of offseason fate, Jordan Greenway’s place in the 2023-24 Buffalo Sabres’ lineup is being examined more thoroughly than expected. This, of course, is an indirect result of de-facto second-line right-winger, Jack Quinn and his offseason Achilles surgery that will likely keep him sidelined for the first few months of the season.

There was scant discussion about how Greenway would be utilized before the announcement of Quinn’s prolonged absence. Now that he seems like a potential interim replacement candidate in that spot, said possibility requires some additional analysis.

So, let’s unpack how Greenway can contribute in a scoring role (if required), and how his skillset can be leveraged in a full season under Don Granato.

Examining Past Usage

At this point, it’s fair to call Granato an optimizer of talent. There is enough track record of him deploying players in unique or unprecedented ways to maximize their strengths.

Looking back on Greeway’s time with the Minnesota Wild, I wanted to find an instance where he produced optimal results. What did that environment look like? What type of linemates did he have? What sort of system was being run at the time?

Unsurprisingly, Greenway’s best season came in 2019-20 when he was playing under Bruce Boudreau. His team in Minnesota held pedestrian numbers on offense, but outstanding metrics defensively. Greenway’s results in both xGF and xGA reached career highs, and his overall xGF rate of 54.85% ranked fourth among Minnesota forwards.

In terms of linemates, Greenway played with a healthy mix of different forwards in 2019-20, most notably Luke Kunin, Joel Eriksson-Ek, Marcus Foligno, and Ryan Hartman. With the exception of Kunin (whose metrics were all over the place), all of the above-referenced players experienced xGF upticks while playing alongside Greenway (Eriksson-Ek in particular).

Across the board, Greenway was used in defensive zone-start situations with a high degree of frequency. That’s not a surprise, given that most of his common linemates were players with historical proficiency in their own end.

After Boudreau was fired, Greenway’s underlying production experienced a significant downturn. Interestingly, the Wild didn’t change all that much in terms of their team impacts under Dean Evason. There was a slight inclination away from dump-and-chase, and toward a transition-style offensive approach, but nothing that jumps off the page.

Further, Greenway’s deployment and usage were virtually identical under Evason (he even played with most of the same linemates). So, while the coaching change could have contributed to his ensuing struggles, there is no clear data point that shows us how. It’s possible that the one-sided nature of Greenway’s career usage that has Granato excited for how he might fare in a revised role.

Perhaps the question isn’t how Greenway can be an offensive weapon in a vacuum, but instead how his talents can be made useful alongside more offensively gifted linemates. The problem here is that he played on a line with Foligno and Eriksson-Ek for the vast majority of his Minnesota career, so there is no real linemate skillset diversity to examine post-2020.

Because I wanted to get a better understanding of Greenway’s abilities, I turned toward his career microstat results to help better understand what he specifically brings to the table.

Leveraging Strengths

On paper, it’s easy to see what Greenway does well because in the areas he excels, he really excels. His microstat results also speak toward a larger point that the Sabres’ recent focus has been resolving the puck-retrieval shortcomings they’ve experienced as a team over the past few seasons (Connor Clifton and Erik Johnson are historically strong entities in that area as well).

Again, as a big-bodied player with defensive proficiency, we didn’t need a chart to tell us that Greenway is good at leveraging his size to win puck battles. His offensive results, however, were what caught my eye.

On top of his historical penchant for chasing down the puck as a forechecker, his per-60 offensive metrics on a Minnesota club that posted lackluster offensive numbers from 2019-2022, are endearing, to say the least. Strong shot-contribution numbers paired with surprisingly high rush-offensive impacts might help explain why the Sabres see him as a fit.

That’s not to say that his ability to secure possession in the offensive zone won’t still be a leverage point for the coaching staff. The Sabres’ smaller, skill forwards could certainly use the help in that regard. That said, Buffalo is the furthest thing from a dump-and-chase team, so the degree to which that ability is emphasized might be reduced compared to how it was used with the Wild.

Conversely, the Sabres had a lot of “one and done” offensive transitions this past season. What I mean is, an offensive counter-rush that led to a shot attempt, but also a subsequent failure to maintain offensive pressure.

Perhaps Granato’s “system” is in search of more versatility in that regard. Maybe there is less of an opposition to establishing an offensive cycle following a counter-rush, but more so a lack of players who could capably help establish one. After all, it’s better to have your offensive weapons with the puck on their sticks, especially when most of them are still in the process of developing their defensive acumens.

Versatility and Other Musings

To reiterate, it seems like Kevyn Adams was keen on adding skillset depth the Sabres lacked last year. Instead of doubling down on existing strengths, it seems he was interested in making his group more well-rounded (without forfeiting the things that the team does well).

Ultimately, it will be interesting to see if Greenway gets a look at one of the Sabres’ “scoring lines” to start the year. Further, when that opportunity arises, how he will fare in what would ultimately be an unprecedented role for him? Again, his usage in Minnesota was consistently defensive in nature, and he never really played alongside flashier offensive weapons.

There is reason to believe that his abilities can be leveraged positively in that environment, but it’s far from a guarantee. Still, even if he fails to create a positive impact (assuming he even gets a prolonged look in the top six), he can be a useful defensive asset which the Sabres need in the bottom six.

What I see in Greenway is an unexplored asset who was put into a box for the early portion of his career. Adams and Granato might be curious to see if he can become something more in a revised role. It’s the type of “untapped-potential” experiment that Granato likes to undertake. His experience coaching the player with the USNTDP lends credence to his confidence that the 26-year-old’s talent can be better leveraged in a revised role.

If it plays out the way Granato seems to think it will, Greenway will become a prime case study on the degree to which deployment and system can impact underlying results.

Advanced Metrics and Charts courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, Hockeyviz, and All Three Zones

Photo Credit: Timothy Ludwig | USA Today Sports