Since we’re a few weeks away from being able to make reasonable analytical observations about the 2023-24 Buffalo Sabres, let’s have a little fun here. I’m not typically one for “bold prediction” type pieces, but the vibes are strong and excitement for the new season has reached a fever pitch among fans.

With that in mind, I’ve come up with a handful of player and team premonitions that surely won’t be screen-shotted with the intent to make me look foolish later. I wanted to keep it somewhat niche (i.e. not something like “Rasmus Dahlin wins the Norris Trophy”) while still conceivably realistic.

Anyway, let’s dive in, shall we?

Converting to Comrienism

Prediction: Eric Comrie establishes himself as the team’s primary backup and posts a winning record in 2023-24.

Call it early-season jubilation or fanboyish optimism, but I’m starting to believe that we will see an Eric Comrie resurgence in 2023-24. I’m not quite ready to assert myself as a full-fledged Comrienist, but my gut tells me he ends up cementing himself as the backup behind Devon Levi.

Further, I think he’ll end up posting a winning record in relief of his 21-year-old cohort. There are a few reasons why I can see this occurring. For starters, we know Comrie battled injuries for a good portion of last season en route to a -8.55 GSAx finish (the 11^th-worst rate in the NHL last season).

Prior to 2022-23 however, his GSAx rate was actually among the best in the NHL. Among the 68 NHL goalies who logged at least 500 even-strength minutes in 2012-22, Comrie’s GSAx/60 rate of .521 ranked third behind Igor Shesterkin and Frederik Andersen. We’re talking about a small and fractured sample of course (19 games to be exact), but there is some precedent for success.

Another interesting point – I have it on good authority that the private models liked Comrie’s 2023-24 numbers a lot more than the public models. Take that as you will.

Peterka! Gesundheit.

Prediction: JJ Peterka eclipses 50 points and ranks among the Sabres’ top-5 xGF forwards.

Last season, Dylan Cozens stole the spotlight as the Sabres’ breakout player. This season, I feel that JJ Peterka will take a similar developmental leap on the wing.

Am I still riding high from his dominant 12-points in 10-game performance for Team Germany at the World Cup of Hockey this summer? Perhaps my excitement around him was fortified by a strong showing in camp and preseason play.

Last season, the then 20-year-old rookie finished ninth among Sabres forwards with a xGF rate of 48.45%. While it pains me that his defensive metrics (which were poor last season) probably won’t improve on a line with Victor Olofsson (an obvious downgrade over the injured Jack Quinn), I think his offensive growth carries him to an improvement overall.

Call Me Spongebob, I’m Stackin Krebby Patties

Prediction: Despite pedestrian scoring numbers, Krebs’ cements role as a defensive centerman

I touched on this in long form last month, but if there’s one thing I love, it’s a shameless plug. Self-promotion aside, certain roster decisions have been made since I wrote it, that have since fortified my belief in how the coaching staff views Krebs’ skillset.

All summer, fans prognosticated as to where the 22-year-old would fit into the lineup. The above-referenced article advocated for Krebs to return to his role centering the Sabres defensive shutdown line. Granato appears to be proceeding in this direction with Krebs lining up between Kyle Okposo and Zemgus Girgensons for the entire training camp.

It’s not a stretch to call Krebs the team’s only defensively capable center. Despite not quite living up to his draft pedigree, if he can continue to make strides in his development as a defensive asset, he’ll be less “replaceable” than some of the more offensively dynamic young forwards coming through the system (of which there is an impending surplus).

I’m Worried That the Baby Thinks People Can’t Change

Prediction: Jordan Greenway posts career-best numbers in both total points and xGF rate.

Another unabashed plug for more of my recent work? Yes, please!

Seriously though, I’m well aware that I’m going out on a bit of a limb with this one. The whole premise is predicated on the fact that Greenway has never experienced a consistent playing sample alongside offensively dynamic counterparts.

This season, at least to start, he’ll skate alongside Casey Mittelstadt and Zach Benson on the Sabres’ de facto third line. Looking at his linemate history throughout his career, these are probably the most offensively talented players he’s ever skated with (assuming they play a decent sample of games together).

Long story short, Greenway has been used as a redundant defensive forward for his entire career. Don Granato looks like he’s going to try to leverage his talent in a more complimentary way. Given his talent-optimization resume, I feel at least semi-confident in saying that Greenway will eclipse his current career-best numbers, but on the scoresheet, and within the realm of the almighty charts.

I am Not Giving Away My Shot (But I Might Score a Bit Less)

Prediction: The Sabres will score fewer goals despite an increased team xGF/60 rate

This might come off as a pessimistic take, but it’s probably my safest prediction on the list. As a team, the Sabres went on something of a shooting bender in 2022-23. Part of that is simply because the team is full of above-average or better finishers.

Still, the xGF versus actual GF disparity was noteworthy. It essentially equated to a goal-scored over-expected every fourth game or so. While I don’t see the Sabres becoming less effective at creating chances, it would not shock me in the least to see a shot-conversion regression in 2023-24.

Let Me Eat the Receipt

Prediction: The Sabres will not only break their playoff drought, they’ll also win a round… maybe…

The vibes have taken hold. The Sabres’ are still roughly a coin-toss proposition as a playoff team, but I’ll bite. The team seems extremely driven and confident heading into the season. It’s probably the hungriest Sabres team we’ve seen since 2006-07.

The second part of this prediction requires an Andromeda-sized asterisk. The Sabres will make the playoffs and win a round IF they don’t run into the Carolina Hurricanes. That team is designed to smother the life out of run-and-gun squads like Buffalo (as evidenced by the Sabres’ 2-4-0 record against Carolina under Granato).

If the Sabres end up nabbing one of the Eastern Conference wild-card spots, a Carolina series is very possible. That said, none of the Atlantic Division teams are particularly scary and aside from New Jersey, the Metro doesn’t inspire a lot of fear either.

This will be fun to screenshot after the Sabres get edged out by the geriatric Pittsburgh Penguins while my brain melts into liquid dark matter, but that’s showbiz, baby!

Advanced Metrics and Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Hockeyviz

Photo Credit: Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images