The concept of a “Mock Offseason” is inherently presumptuous. It assumes cooperation from the parties involved (players, agents, other general managers, etc.) and there is a thin line between unadulterated fantasy and fantasy founded in reality.

With that in mind, I want to preface this exercise by explaining my general approach. There seems to always be a lack of clarity as to whether these mocks are what “we want” to happen versus what “we think” will happen. For transparency’s sake, I tried to get somewhere in the middle.

If you’re expecting the Buffalo Sabres to sign a high-profile player like Evgeni Malkin to a one-year maximum AAV deal, this mock will disappoint you. Conversely, if you’re someone convinced that the Sabres would stand pat, aside from a few salary dumps, again, you’ll be disappointed.

What I did here was relatively simple. First came the examination of the Sabres’ current needs along with a determination of how likely (and aggressively) Kevyn Adams is expected to address them. This, of course, is mostly based on press conference sentiment and historical tendencies.

There will be a few curveballs and added creativity in this mock, but the goal was to at least have the acquisitions be in line with realistic expectations. So, while the general team approach I took probably leans closer to what I “think will happen”, the acquisitions themselves trend closer toward the “want to happen” end of the spectrum.

Now that the table has been set, let’s dive in.

Existing Assets

Pending UFA Contracts

Before we get into the new acquisitions, let’s clean up all the expiring assets. It should go without saying, but in this scenario, I’ve let every pending UFA hit the open market, save for one.

For reasons that will become obvious shortly (if it isn’t already), I’ve elected to extend goaltender, Malcolm Subban to a one-year, $900,000 AAV contract. He’ll be penciled in as the Rochester Americans’ starting netminder for the 2022-23 campaign.

All of the Sabres’ other expiring veterans like Vinnie Hinostroza, Cody Eakin, John Hayden, et al will need to find new homes.

Pending RFA Contracts

The Sabres’ group of restricted free agents isn’t quite as straightforward. Ultimately, I elected to extend all of them for various reasons.

Victor Olofsson | 3-year, $5 million AAV extension – The logic here is pretty straightforward. When healthy, the soon-to-be 27-year-old was one of the most effective forwards on the team in 2021-22. Though his injury history (and subsequent issues with consistency) is cause for concern, I do not feel that Buffalo is in a position to let a natural goal-scorer walk.

According to Evolving Hockey’s contract projection model, they anticipate Olofsson to command something in the neighborhood of four years, $4.7 million AAV. That amount of term is too much of an investment for me, so I reduced it by a year and threw a few more dollars Olofsson’s way as a result

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | 1-year, $1 million AAV extension – Nothing too groundbreaking here. Luukkonen will receive an opportunity to win an NHL roster spot in camp. The Sabres have invested four years in his development and will give him one more kick at the can here. It will likely be his last chance to show the organization that he should be in consideration as a viable starting option for the future core.

Arttu Ruotsalainen | 1-year, $950,000 contract extension – Ruotsalainen’s situation is interesting. Last month, there were rumblings that he was considering a return to Europe next season. According to the 24-year-old himself, those reports were perhaps premature, as he expressed interest in returning to Buffalo.

We’ll assume that he sticks around for another year. Like Luukkonen, he’ll get a chance to compete for one of the final forward slots in camp.

Brett Murray – 1-year, $800,000 contract extension (two-way deal) – Murray was a good soldier for the organization last season. At 24 years old, he’s an elder prospect who provided a great deal of value for the Amerks, especially down the stretch. As someone who could be called up in a pinch, it makes sense to hang onto him for another season.

Brandon Biro – 1-year, 800,000 contract extension (two-way deal) – Considering the amount of forward depth on the Sabres roster, Biro is firmly an AHL body for next season (barring a ridiculous rash of injuries up front). Still, he was one of the Amerks’ best players last season, registering 41 points in 48 games.

Jacob Bryson – Qualifying Offer – Frankly, I have trade leverage plans for Bryson, so I elected to merely extend a qualifying offer and nothing more. The reason for that decision will reveal itself in the next section.

To recap, the image below represents where the Sabres stand after addressing all of their current assets. There are holes to fill on defense and in net. There are upgrades to be made at forward as well.

Trades

Now comes the fun part. In researching the salary cap and roster situations for every team in the league, I narrowed things down to a shortlist of trade partners that make sense for Buffalo (and vice-versa). From that group, I picked my favorite two realistic trade ideas.

Trade #1: The Sabres acquire Alex Romanov and Jake Allen from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for Casey Mittelstadt

The more I looked at this idea, the more it appealed to me. The Canadiens are in an interesting situation. One year removed from losing in the Stanley Cup Final, Montreal finished dead-last with 55 points in 2021-22.

To compound that disappointment is the fact is their current salary cap situation. While Kent Hughes’ team has a boatload of draft picks at their disposal (seven picks in the first two rounds between this year and next), they need to shed salary as they pursue what I expect to be an expedited rebuild.

Alex Romanov’s name has popped up on the rumor mill a few times over the last year. Unless Montreal can shed some veteran salary, they’ll be hard-pressed to afford his RFA contract extension. According to EH, his next deal figures to land in the seven-year, $3.7 million AAV range.

The Sabres were rumored to have been interested in Romanov during the Jack Eichel trade saga. Committing that type of money and term seems may seem ill-founded given the fact that existing blueliners like Owen Power, Mattias Samuelsson, and Rasmus Dahlin are all due extensions within the next two years.

That said, Romanov’s projected $3.7 million AAV price tag will turn out to be a bargain if he can continue his developmental trajectory. A top-four defensive group of Dahlin, Samuelsson, Power, and Romanov has the potential to be the best in the league if their respective developments all continue as expected. If that’s the case, the Sabres could easily get away with two cheap veteran assets to serve on the third pair once the salary cap ceiling becomes a consideration (but we’re a long way away from that conversation).

Another factor to consider is Romanov’s presence as a potential veteran mentor for the young Russian assets in the Sabres’ farm system. By the time they’re ready to graduate to the NHL level, Romanov will be in his mid-20s and capable of assuming that role for the organization.

Because Romanov likely has a bit more trade value than Mittelstadt at this point, the Sabres agree to take Jake Allen’s contract off their hands as part of the deal. The 31-year-old has one year remaining on his $2.875 million contract.

Trade #2: The Sabres acquire Teddy Blueger from the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for Jacob Bryson’s RFA rights, and a third-round draft pick in 2022 (74th overall)

Let’s play out a scenario here. The Penguins want to hang onto Kris Letang and Evgeni Malkin for one last run at a Stanley Cup. The problem is that they don’t have enough cap space to make it happen.

Blueger is something of a luxury player on the Penguins roster. With one year remaining before he hits UFA status, he (and his $2.2 million cap hit) seems like an ideal salary-shedding candidate. After dealing with Mittelstadt, the Sabres have something of a deficit down the middle. Blueger would serve as a perfect bottom-six centerman in Buffalo. He also experienced a great deal of success in the faceoff dot last season, winning over 53% of his draws.

On the other side of this deal, the Penguins gain some financial wiggle room. They also fill out their defensive top-six with a cost-effective young player in Bryson. So, the Sabres help Pittsburgh retain two of their core pieces, and they add a young asset on the blue line (plus another draft choice to stockpile for their inevitable rebuild).

But What About…

Inevitably, some of you are probably wondering why I didn’t trade the contract rights for players like Ryan Johnson, Erik Portillo, or Lawrence Pilut. I’ll briefly explain my reasoning.

We know that if Johnson doesn’t sign, whichever team holds his rights is entitled to a late-second-round pick as compensation. I didn’t see a trade out there that required a late second to be added to it. So, I essentially elected to keep the player for now.

In Portillo’s case, I just don’t see why a team would trade for him. It would be akin to Tim Murray trading for Jimmy Vesey right before he hit the open market. It makes no sense. If another team wants him, they can simply pitch him an offer next summer.

Lastly, I don’t know how much (if any) value Pilut’s rights would even have on the trade market. I flirted with the idea of including him in the Montreal trade, but it seemed like a reach. If you want, we can pretend that Adams trades his rights to the Carolina Hurricanes for a 2022 7^th-round pick. They seem to be a good fit for a deal like this.

Free Agency

Before we embark on “silly season” let’s take another look at the Sabres’ depth chart following the trades we discussed in the last section.

There is still a hole on the right side of the defense, and the roster could probably use another goaltender. Fortunately, the Sabres are still about $6 million below the cap floor in this hypothetical scenario, so the money will need to be spent.

Free Agent Signing #1 | PK Subban – Three-years, $4 million AAV

As most of our subscribers are aware, I’ve been beating the drum for Subban for months. Last month, I took a deep dive into his impacts and examined how he’d be an ideal fit for this Sabres team. I won’t relitigate that here.

Essentially, we’re looking at a King Clancy Trophy, and former Norris Trophy winner to help mentor a very young, very talented blue line in Buffalo. He passes the vibe check, and after a bounce-back season in 2021-22, he seems like a great guiding hand to pair alongside Owen Power on the de facto second defensive tandem.

Free Agent Signing #2 | Braden Holtby – Two years, $2.2 million AAV

Frankly, I despised how the Sabres handled their goaltending situation last season. They were thin in terms of depth, and incredibly injury-prone. This signing comes with the hope that Adams learned his lesson in that regard.

Holtby will join Luukkonen and Allen in a competition for the two roster spots between the pipes. In all likelihood, the result will be something of a platoon situation with rotational starters. The Sabres can’t get caught in another situation where they ice eight different goaltenders in a season. An unacceptable mistake that cannot be replicated.

Like Subban, Holtby is a veteran with a history of success who is coming off a bounce-back season. Between the three goalies on the roster, the hope is that at least one of them identifies themselves as a capable starter.

Free Agent Signing #3 | Brad Hunt – One-Year, $900,000 AAV

In looking at the Sabres’ defensive depth chart, I felt a little uneasy. The starting six are well-established, but the lack of depth is a concern. Casey Fitzgerald is a capable seventh-defenseman, but if the Sabres were to experience more than one defensive injury at any point, they have essentially nothing behind him in terms of depth.

Hunt is a player I’ve liked for a while. He’s coming off another positive impact season on his third team in five years. He’s a plug-and-play depth guy, similar to a Mark Pysyk type. For the price, he’s a nice safety valve to add some injury insurance on the back end.

Entry Draft

Typically, we don’t include the draft as part of our written mocks, but since the Sabres have three first-round picks in their pocket, I thought it would be a fun addition. Part of the reason I didn’t elect to trade any of these picks for immediate help is based on the vibe I get from Adams. While he hasn’t outright said that these picks were “off the table” in terms of a trade, I get the feeling that he intends to use all three of them.

To add to the “authenticity” I performed a mock draft using Draft Prospects Hockey’s mock draft simulation tool. While the rankings on these sites can be sporadic and inconsistent, I find that theirs is at least somewhat in touch with reality.

9^th-Overall Pick | Frank Nazar, Center, University of Michigan

Nazar is a guy I’ve liked for the Sabres for a while. I won’t claim to be a draft expert by any means, but among the people I follow who cover prospects and the like, he seems to be a consensus “best player available” at this slot.

He’s likely to go anywhere from the top-10 to the top-15. It’s not a guarantee that he’ll be available here, but the odds seem favorable.

16^th-Overall Pick | Rutger McGroarty, Center, University of Michigan

When Chad DeDominicis and I attended the NHL Combine earlier this month, we both got the impression that McGroarty was made for the Sabres. A charismatic presence who is known for his positive attitude and vocal leadership. There are legitimate concerns about his skating, but he just seems like the exact type of person the Sabres brass would fall in love with.

28^th-Overall Pick | Elias Salomonsson, Defenseman, Skellefteå AIK (SHL)

I’ve seen Salomonsson mocked anywhere from 16-32, so there’s a chance he’ll be gone before the Sabres pick here. If that’s the case, I’d take the next-best defenseman in this spot (perhaps Lian Bichsel). Either way, he’s a good-sized defender with a high ceiling. He’d immediately become the best RHD prospect in the Sabres’ system.

Closing Thoughts

The dust has settled, and the offseason has reached its conclusion. So, let’s take one last look at the Sabres’ finalized 2022-23 depth chart.

For fun, I decided to plug my lineup into JFresh Hockey’s WAR machine. Please note that Owen Power was not available to select, so I elected to put Mattias Samuelsson in there twice as I felt he’d be a solid WAR comparable.

Keep in mind that this machine won’t account for the development of players like Dylan Cozens, Peyton Krebs, and the other youngsters. It also doesn’t have any real NHL sample to gauge what Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka would bring to the table.

For those reasons, I feel that this projection is a little low. If the lineup ended up looking similar to how I’ve projected it, I’d anticipate this team to finish in the mid-to-high 80s in terms of standings points. Not quite a surefire playoff team, but they’d be in the conversation at least.

Despite all of the cap space at Adams’ disposal, this summer is not the time for extravagant expenditures, and it seems like he realizes that. There are a lot of young Sabres with expiring contracts in the next two years. All of them will be due raises at that time.

Another season of determining who belongs in the future core (and who doesn’t) is necessary before making any earth-shattering additions to the lineup. I think next summer is when we’ll see the Sabres get aggressive in the hopes of playoff contention. Before then, Buffalo would be wise to add a few short-term veteran assets to help guide the young core, and perhaps get this team back to relevance.

Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Hockeyviz, JFresh Hockey, and CapFriendly

Advanced Metrics courtesy of Evolving Hockey

Photo Credit: Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images