For the past few weeks, I’ve tried to put up red flags about the Buffalo Sabres salary cap situation heading into next summer. On the surface, it looks as though they have a lot of cap space. However, in all actuality, they don’t.

General manager Jason Botterill pushed a handful of restricted free agents into one summer and will have a cap overage to deal with that will reduce the amount available to spend on improving the roster. Joe Yerdon wrote an article earlier this week for The Athletic that painted an excellent picture of the situation. I’m not going to go into a ton of detail on the cap breakdown. Joe already did that work so you can click the link above to get that background if you haven’t read it yet.

While the situation looks bleak, there are some ways to upgrade with the roster and deal with the limited cap space. Joe motivated me to break down some of those concepts.

Trade Expensive Contracts

The obvious thing the Sabres can do is move a player on an expensive contract or one of their restricted free agents that will be due for a big raise. I think we all know who the player is at the top of this list in Rasmus Ristolainen.

The big defender has been on the trade block the last few years, but the Sabres have not pulled the trigger on a deal. They’ve had a handful of suitors and even a few deals that got close, but not over the finish line.

This summer is a now or never type situation for a trade involving Ristolainen. He has two years remaining on his deal that carries a $5.4 million cap hit. If they don’t move him this offseason his value will diminish not only potentially from his on-ice performance, but having only one year remaining on his deal. Thus reducing the potential return because of future contract uncertainty. Likely, they won’t get the price they desire for the Finnish defender, but with the importance of moving out the money, it may be wise to stop overvaluing the player.

Another player they could explore moving is defenseman Brandon Montour. They have an overabundance of right-hand defensemen on the roster. Evolving Hockey projects Montour to receive a three-year deal that carries a $4.8 million cap hit. That cap hit feels rich for a player that hasn’t performed to standards and the worst thing the Sabres can do is commit long-term to Montour.

The other player that falls into this category is Sam Reinhart. Botterill made the mistake of not going long-term on the player two years ago. Instead of negotiating a contract with a cap hit of $7 million, they could have him on a deal with a few years remaining that carried an annual average value of around $5.5 million.

Trading Reinhart for anything outside of a strong one for one deal could be catastrophic for the team. For me, that list of players I’d move for him is small. They can’t afford to move a player of his ability for a package of players. General managers often fall into the trap of believing that quantity is greater than quality. I’d recommend the Sabres stay away from this option, but it still needs to be brought up.

Acquire Contracts of Value

In any trade that the Sabres make they need to be smart about the players, they bring in. They’re not in a position to take on any salary to make a deal work and need to keep an eye on the future when making these deals. They have a big contract on the horizon next summer for Rasmus Dahlin and Henri Jokiharju is up for a new deal as well. If the cap remains flat for a year or two, they must make some savvy moves.

One such example of this would be acquiring a center like Dylan Strome from the Chicago Blackhawks. He’s been rumored to be on the trade block this offseason. The former third overall pick could be a nice option to act as the second-line center behind Jack Eichel.

The 23-year-old has shown growth and was playing at a 50-point pace for the second straight season. He’s an impactful player offensively, showing an ability to produce with legitimate top-six wingers. You can see below in Micah McCurdy’s new chart how he’s contributed offensively but will need to be placed in situations that mitigate his defensive shortcomings.

The main benefit of acquiring him would be getting their hands on a cost-controlled asset. He’s a non-arbitration-eligible restricted free agent this offseason. The fact that he doesn’t have arbitration rights would be a win for the Sabres because they have the leverage in that negotiation.

The twins model projects him to receive a three-year deal with a $4 million cap hit deal if he signs with another team besides the Blackhawks. Having a perennial 50-point center under contract with a cap hit that low is huge for the cap moving forward.

Another quick example would be Jesper Bratt of the New Jersey Devils. Another young player that could be on the move because the team is looking to add to their roster in other areas. He found himself as a healthy scratch at times last season.

Like Strome, Bratt is another non-arbitration-eligible restricted free agent that could be an impact forward on a shorter-term deal that has a cap hit under $4 million. There are a handful of options that a general manager could explore beyond these two players that fit the criteria.

Savvy Free Agent Signings

The Sabres don’t need to fear the unrestricted free agent market because of their current cap situation. Having said that, it’s unlikely we’ll see them in the race to sign Taylor Hall or Tyler Toffoli. There are other options they could bring in that could help the roster improve in the middle-six.

Jesper Fast of the New York Rangers is a perfect example of that type of player. He’s an underrated two-way winger that can play up and down the lineup. Micah’s model below not only shows that, but it also showcases his ability to positively impact scoring.

While the biggest need for the roster is to acquire help in the top-six, they’ve been dying for secondary scoring in the middle-six of the roster. Evolving Hockey projects him to receive a three-year deal with a cap hit of $2.9 million. Fast may be the best value on the market if the Rangers let him go to free agency.

Outside of Fast, players like Craig Smith, Josh Leivo, and Dylan DeMelo could all be had for under $4.5 million in annual average value according to the twins’ projections. Retaining Johan Larsson would also be a step in the right direction for this club.

Get Long-Term Value on RFA’s

One thing the Sabres have failed to do, which is why they find themselves in this situation, is to get value contracts for any of their players. They have the opportunity to do so again this offseason with two players in particular.

The first is rookie sniper, Victor Olofsson. After scoring 20 goals in his first NHL season, the Swede heads into the summer as a restricted free agent. The difference here from the aforementioned players above is that he has arbitration rights. Which means he’ll carry some leverage in negotiations. However, if the Sabres throw a decent contract at him for the next few years they can lock in some value. In Evolving Hockey’s model, he’s projected at a four-year deal with a $4.9 million cap hit.

That’s great value for the next four years on a player that has the potential to score 30 goals a season. He has some deficiencies in his 5 on 5 game, but with his shooting talent, there shouldn’t be much of a concern about him repeating what he did this season.

The other player I’d look at locking in is Jokiharju. He’s not a restricted free agent until the 2021 offseason, but the Sabres could get ahead of the game when the new league year does begin. He’ll only be 21 to start next season, but he’s shown the potential to be a top-four defender. If they could lock him into a deal close to what the Pittsburgh Penguins signed Marcus Pettersson for (five years, $4.025 million), it would be another win on the long-term cap situation. It also leaves Rasmus Dahlin as the sole big restricted free agent (at this point) to deal with in 2021.

Even though the cap situation doesn’t look great going into the offseason or even the future; there are ways to navigate through it. The limited space after re-signing their restricted free agents shouldn’t cause the Sabres to sit on their hands and fail to make key roster adjustments…again.

This offseason is big for the team moving forward and they need to have a general manager in place with the ability to make smart hockey decisions. At this point, I’m not sure they have that person leading the hockey department. Botterill has shown his inability to make decisions that benefit the future of the team and honestly has failed to show any logical plan in his roster building. The cap overage situation is another example of that.

It would appear that Botterill will be the man running the show for another offseason and if that is the case he needs to change improve his performance in many areas. This team cannot afford another offseason of failing to make any significant improvements in key areas of the roster.

Data via Evolving Hockey and Hockeyviz.com