Though we’re a few games into the first round of the 2023 NHL Playoffs, I wanted to duplicate this exercise from last season. The format has been altered a bit this time around as we identify players to watch by series, rather than by individual teams.

Below you’ll find a list of pending UFA’s that I find personally interesting as potential Buffalo Sabres targets on the open market this summer. The order is determined by the number of interesting players in each series and the degree to which said players address an area of need for Buffalo.

In case you missed it, we covered the Western Conference targets yesterday. Today, we’ll tackle the East.

Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Islanders (5 Players)

Pierre Engvall | LW | Age 26

Like so many other analytics darlings who don’t produce a lot of points, Engvall is a polarizing asset among fans. With a hulking frame and a GF/60 rate that is consistently lower than his xGF/60 numbers, it’s easy to overlook his value. He is a poster child for questions like, “If he’s so good offensively, why doesn’t he score?”

That said, he is a two-way impact player who would fit nicely in the Sabres’ middle-six. The only concern here would be an inflated market for his services this summer. His age and size make him the exact type of player who GM’s will overpay both financially, and in terms of contract length.

Scott Mayfield | RHD | Age 30

Mayfield has been on my radar for a few years now. He’s a steady defensive defenseman with size and range. His numbers are consistent, but he plays in a system that prides itself on smothering anything resembling excitement.

In a vacuum, he’s a great player to fill a need on the second-pairing. He can handle a heavy workload, and he doesn’t make a lot of mistakes in his own end. His greatest asset is probably his ability to thwart zone entries which is something the Sabres could use. Conversely, he has no transition ability to speak of, and he might struggle to adapt to Don Granato’s high-event approach.

Jesper Fast | RW | Age 31

Fast is another player who it feels like we’ve talked about a lot over the last few years. I tend to think of him as a more offensively-capable Zemgus Girgensons. While the Carolina Hurricanes do not run a similar system to Buffalo, Fast’s metrics have remained consistent from his time with the New York Rangers from 2013-2019.

The Sabres need more two-way forwards. Though Fast probably doesn’t possess the scoring acumen to fortify the middle-six, he is a versatile player who can provide steady impacts up and down the lineup. At his age and with his scoring production, the cost to sign him should be reasonable.

Frederik Andersen | G | Age 33

Even though he’s currently serving as a backup to Antti Raanta (who we’ll touch on shortly) in the playoffs, Andersen seems like an ideal rotational starter for Buffalo next season. Injury history aside, he’s spent time as a full-blown starter, and in a rotational role throughout his 10-year NHL career.

Following a rough final season with the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2020-21, his metrics have rebounded. Last season, he was one of the top goalies in the NHL, holding a GSAx rate of 28.46 over just 52 games. He hasn’t been quite as impactful this year, but his GSAx mark remains positive.

If he can be had on a two-year agreement, he’s the perfect mentor as Devon Levi acclimates to the NHL level.

Antti Raanta | G | Age 33

I could probably copy and paste most of the last section to describe Raanta. Another veteran goalie with a sordid injury history, he too has experienced success in a rotational role. His two-year stint with the Hurricanes hasn’t been awe-inspiring, but he’s held consistent with positive GSAx rates in both campaigns.

He currently holds the starting role for Carolina but I prefer the idea of Andersen. Regardless, Raanta is a solid Plan B option to consider this summer.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning (3 Players)

Ryan O’Reilly | C | Age 32

The sad reality is that the Sabres are unlikely to consider bringing back one of the faces of the “old core”. Still, O’Reilly’s skillset and age are sort of perfect for what Buffalo currently needs to round out its forward group.

It’s no secret that Buffalo has a strong pool of developing forwards in their system. O’Reilly could serve as a 2-3 year stopgap in the top six while those assets continue to develop. Despite his age, he has maintained his status as one of the better two-way centers in the NHL.

Justin Holl | RHD | Age 31

I tend to go back and forth on Holl. On the one hand, he doesn’t do anything particularly well. On the other hand, he also doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses. Based on his underlying metrics, he’s slightly above average, and that matches the eye test for me. He’s decent enough in transition and doesn’t get exposed too badly on zone entries.

If the Sabres needed an asset to round out their third-pairing, I’d be more enthused by this option. Placing him in a second-pairing role seems to limit, but perhaps a consistent (albeit underwhelming) veteran presence could be good for Owen Power’s development. He’s not my favorite option, but I can be sold.

Alex Kerfoot | C | Age 28

Kerfoot is another player I waffled on here. He’s an excellent middle-six forward, but his age and production lead me to believe that he’ll receive a long-term deal as a UFA. In a way, he’s sort of the antithesis of Engvall where his offensive counting stats tend to outperform his expected metrics (driven by historically poor finishing impacts).

Defensively, he’s always been a steady force, and if the Sabres feel that they can leverage his usage and replicate production, he’s a solid option for the middle-six. Again, the concern here is cost, and there are very few (if any) UFA forwards I can justify signing beyond a three-year deal.

Honorable Mention: Zach Aston-Reese (Good player, but not enough to create a veteran roadblock in the name of skillset redundancy).

New Jersey Devils vs New York Rangers (3 Players)

Damon Severson | RHD | Age 28

We’ve reached the UFA crown jewel in the 2023 NHL Playoffs. Severson will likely be the most sought-after defenseman on the open market this summer, and justifiably so. He’s a steady workhorse who has spent time (and found success) with a myriad of underwhelming defensive partners over the past two seasons in New Jersey.

On paper, his skillset as a two-way defender seems perfect to pair alongside a player like Power and wreak havoc on opposing teams. He’s also a puck-retrieval maven in his own end. Pair him with someone who can kickstart the counter-rush and watch out.

He is going to be expensive, but if the Sabres can limit the term by overpaying (within reason) on a shorter deal, he’d be an incredible fit. Everyone who reads our work knows that I dislike the idea of doing anything overly bold as a UFA buyer, but Severson is my lone exception. There is no player better suited to bring the Sabres’ defense to its full potential.

Tomas Tatar | LW | Age 32

Tatar might be the most underrated winger in the NHL and no, that isn’t hyperbole. For years he’s managed to fly somewhat under the radar, but he is a legitimately potent asset as a top-six forward.

Over the last three seasons, there have been 257 forwards who have skated at least 2,000 even-strength minutes. Tatar’s xGF rate of 57.16% during that stretch ranks 21^st among his peers. That mark is driven by both his offensive and defensive impacts.

There is legitimately nothing he’s not good at, and he should be another “overpay on a short-term deal” candidate for the Sabres this summer. They’re not remotely similar players in terms of prototype, but Tatar is the type of player who could have an Alex Tuch-like impact on the second line.

Ryan Graves | LHD | Age 27

Similar to Holl, I tend to go back and forth on Graves. He too is devoid of any real weaknesses, but he also doesn’t have a high-end aspect of his game either. Unlike Holl, Graves seems to be on the precipice of reaching his prime.

As you can see from his career WAR chart above, his on-ice impacts have increased every year. Graves will likely be a highly sought-after name on the open market. He’s relatively young and has size. While he would probably fit in nicely on the Sabres’ second pair, I’d be much more apt to try and land his teammate in Severson instead.

Honorable Mention: Erik Haula (Decent enough player, but would feel like an underwhelming, arbitrary addition).

Boston Bruins vs Florida Panthers (3 Players)

Radko Gudas | RHD | Age 32

Our readers know how I feel about Gudas. I wanted him the last time he hit the UFA market and that hasn’t changed. While he’s probably no longer my “top choice” to fill the Sabres’ need on the right side, he’s still an excellent option.

Despite popular belief, Gudas is much more than dirty hits and veteran grit. He’s a contributor at both ends of the ice and he’s exactly the type of player that is missing on the Buffalo blue line. He’s a zone-entry denial maven and an excellent puck retriever.

If the Sabres want to stick to a short-term agreement to fill their need on the second pair, you’d be hard-pressed to find a better option.  

Garnet Hathaway | RW | Age 31

Like Gudas, Hathaway has a reputation as a bruiser, but there’s a lot to like about his overall game. He’s got great defensive instincts and his physicality doesn’t take him out of position (i.e. he doesn’t throw his body at the expense of the play).

The only real issue I can see here is system fit. Hathaway is not a player who excels on the rush. He was the least capable rush forward on a Washington Capitals team that was largely pretty ineffective producing fast-break offense.

Honorable Mention: Tyler Bertuzzi, Dmitry Orlov (ultimately too expensive and you’re paying more for the name than actual on-ice impact).

Advanced Metrics courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Hockeyviz
Charts Courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Hockeyviz, and All Three Zones

Photo Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports