Yesterday, we commenced our positional ranking series in the East Division. The first part of the series covered each team’s forward lineup. In part two, we’ll go through the same exercise, only this time we’ll be ranking the East Division defensive rosters.

This one will be formatted a little bit differently, but the application will remain the same. Each defensive top-six will be plugged into Sean Tierney’s lineup model based on last year’s TOI pairing data, and general logic in terms of filling in the blanks (new additions, minor-league promotions, player departures, etc.).

Aside from the Sabres, very few teams in the East Division made significant changes at forward. Defensively, there was a lot more player movement that took place this offseason. For that reason, it will be interesting to compare xGA metrics from 2019-20 and determine the extent to which they translate to projected success (or lack thereof) this season.

1. Pittsburgh Penguins (52.66% xGF)

Notable Additions: Mike Matheson, Cody Ceci

Notable Departures: Justin Schultz, Jack Johnson

Synopsis

Surprised? Don’t be.

The Penguins have been at the butt-end of jokes over the past couple of years as a result of employing players like Jack Johnson and Erik Gudbranson on the blue line. Jim Rutherford has continued to some interesting personnel choices on the back-end. New additions Cody Ceci and Mike Matheson are no exception.

Still, Pittsburgh’s top-four defensive lineup is one of the best in the league, analytically speaking. Kris Letang and Brian Dumoulin have resumes that speak for themselves, and their respective skill sets complement each other nicely.

Last season, the John Marino and Marcus Pettersson duo posted strong xG metrics as one of the team’s primary pairings. Their results were particularly impressive considering that Marino was a rookie, and Pettersson was playing in just his second full NHL season.

The Ceci-Matheson pairing is an anchor. For that reason, the Penguins coaching staff might want to split them up to try and balance things a bit better. Either way, this group contains four players with very strong metrics. Juuso Riikola is also an option to supplant someone on the third pairing, should they struggle.

There’s a reason the Penguins ranked fourth in the NHL with an xGA/60 rate of 2.08 at five-on-five last year. They might be a little underrated among fans, but as a whole, this group produces very positive impact results.

2. Boston Bruins (51.88% xGF)

Notable Additions: None

Notable Departures: Torey Krug, Zdeno Chara

Synopsis

Going into this exercise, I was probably the most curious about how Tierney’s model would project the Bruins. Obviously, losing Torey Krug and Zdeno Chara in free agency is a bit of a blow. Regardless, Boston was the league-leader in team xGA/60 rate (1.99) last season, and Krug’s metrics were relatively average among his blue line contemporaries.

The problem here is that the Bruins don’t have any defensive depth to speak of. They’ll miss Krug’s offensive ability and the fact that he allowed them to push talented players down the lineup.

Perhaps players like Lauzon, Moore, and Clifton were sheltered more than I’m accounting for with Chara absorbing a lot of the tougher matchups. After all, he had by far the lowest OZS rate on the Boston blue line last season at 32.44-percent.

We’ll have to see how well their less-experienced players adjust to their expanded roles. Don Sweeney didn’t add anyone of significance in the offseason, so he must have confidence in their younger assets to pick up the slack. If they can’t, Boston really doesn’t have much of a backup plan in terms of depth players who could sub-in.

This seems like a risky approach. Time will tell, but I’d expect them to lean heavily on their top pairing of Matt Grzelcyk and Charlie McAvoy. As indicated in the chart above, that duo is singlehandedly pushing the group’s aggregate xGF rate into the positives.

3. Washington Capitals (50.45% xGF)

Notable Additions: Justin Schultz, Zdeno Chara

Notable Departures: Radko Gudas

Synopsis

On paper, the Capitals have one of the most complimentary defensive groups in the division. Each pairing has a strong offensive asset, paired with a defensively responsible partner (to varying extents of course).

The only odd part of the ranking is that Washington was not a strong defensive team last season. Their even-strength team xGA rate of 2.36 was below average. Replacing Radko Gudas for Justin Schultz shouldn’t move the needle too much in that regard. Despite having very different skill sets as players, their overall xG impacts are actually pretty comparable.

Up top, John Carlson is one of the best offensive defensemen in the NHL, and Brendan Dillon is an underappreciated defensive entity. The same can be said, respectively about the Dmitry Orlov and Nick Jensen pairing in the middle.

The complexion third duo is a bit of a mystery with the recent signing of Zdeno Chara, but his best days are well behind him, and he just isn’t one of their top-three options on the left side. Jonas Siegenthaler is the smarter play there from an underlying impact standpoint.

Clearly, the model we’re using likes the Capitals’ defensive group, and as mentioned above, it’s a very balanced lineup with no glaring deficiencies. The only mistake they could conceivably make from a tactical standpoint would be giving Schultz and Chara too much responsibility based on reputation. In terms of xG impacts, those two are probably their weakest assets on the back-end.

4. New York Islanders (48.78% xGF)

Notable Additions: None

Notable Departures: Devon Toews, Johnny Boychuk (retired)

Synopsis

New York’s ranking in the top half of the division has less to do with their defensive talent, and more to do with the fact that this division is generally very weak on the blue line. In what is a pretty conservative system Barry Trotz has implemented, the Islanders’ blue line tends to get a lot of help from their defensive forwards.

That approach is probably necessary, considering the lack of talent they possess on the defense. Losing Devon Toews was a crushing blow because he was arguably their best blueliner in terms of underlying impact in 2019-20. While the top-pairing of Pelech and Pulock is very good, the remainder of the defensive depth chart is suspect.

Interestingly enough, losing Johnny Boychuk probably helped improve his former team’s projected metrics in Tierney’s model. There was certainly a point in his career where he was considered a top-end defender, but those days are long gone. Last season, his xGAR rate of -6.3 was the lowest among Islanders defensemen (Toews led the team with a mark of 11.9).

Trotz always has a way of making lemonade out of lemons, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see a defensive impact regression from his blue line in 2020-21.

5. New Jersey Devils (46.93% xGF)

Notable Additions: Ryan Murray, Dmitry Kulikov

Notable Departures: Sami Vatanen, Andy Greene

Synopsis

A lot of teams in the East Division will have new look defenses, but none more so than the Devils. Despite his reputation, Sami Vatanen’s metrics have been pretty poor over the past few seasons. Andy Greene is also probably overdue for retirement, so losing those entities was probably a net gain for New Jersey.

Trading for Ryan Murray was one of the best deals of the offseason and represented an immediate upgrade to the Devils’ top-four. While Dmitry Kulikov is a pretty lackluster signing for the third pairing, his overall impacts are pretty comparable to what Greene contributed in 2019-20.

On paper, the Devils look a lot better than they are. Despite the organization’s reputation as a notoriously defensive club, they ranked in the bottom-five in the NHL, allowing an xGA/60 rate of 2.61 at five-on-five. The lineup has certainly improved in terms of personnel, but it probably isn’t enough to make a significant change in their overall metrics.

New Jersey could optimize their defensive situation by leaning heavily on their top two pairings this season. Their overall xG average suffers as a result of a very uninspiring third pair of Kulikov and Connor Carrick. Murray, P.K. Subban, and Will Butcher are all strong assets and with a little more depth, the Devils would actually have a very strong blue line.

6. Philadelphia Flyers (45.30% xGF)

Notable Additions: Erik Gustafsson

Notable Departures: Matt Niskanen (retired)

Synopsis

The Flyers ranking here might come as a bit of a shock, but in reality, their defensive depth chart leaves a lot to be desired. The only East Division rivals that carried higher xGA/60 rates in 2019-20 were the Devils and New York Rangers.

According to Tierney’s model, none of the Flyers’ projected defensive pairings are expected to have a positive xG impact in 2020-21. They probably did not anticipate losing Matt Niskanen to retirement, but his metrics were in decline, and he should have been relatively easy to replace.

There were worse choices than Erik Gustafsson to fill the vacant role, but Philadelphia elected to replace defensive impact with offensive prowess for a group that probably needed a more consistent defensive presence. Perhaps Gustafsson can get back to how he performed early in his career with the Chicago Blackhawks because his time with the Calgary Flames last season is assuredly hurting his impact in this model.

Still in all, for a below-average xGA team in 2019-20, they didn’t do enough to make this a positive impact group. If the Flyers offense doesn’t replicate their success from last season (xGF/60 rate of 2.43, good for seventh in the NHL), this team could be exposed as pretenders in front of a very young (albeit talented) netminder in Carter Hart.

7. New York Rangers (43.04% xGF)

Notable Additions: Jack Johnson

Notable Departures: Marc Staal, Brady Skjei (trade deadline)

When the divisions were first announced, my initial reaction was that the Rangers had a better lineup than the Sabres. After performing this exercise for the forwards, and now defense, I’m not so sure.

What’s interesting is that the right side of the New York blue line is very solid. Adam Fox has the makings of a future franchise defenseman, Jacob Trouba has historically strong metrics, and extracurricular antics aside, Tony DeAngelo is a positive impact player as well.

The problem with the Rangers defensive depth chart is that all of their talents exist exclusively on the right side. Ryan Lindgren is very average, and certainly not a top-pairing caliber asset, and Brendan Smith’s xG impacts are some of the worst among NHL defenders over the last three years.

As for Jack Johnson, the hockey world remains perplexed as to why Jeff Gorton felt that he was someone worth pursuing. Since 2017, only seven NHL defensemen have had a more detrimental xGAR impact than the 33-year-old.

Perhaps the right side of the Ranger’s defense can carry the left side to success, but Tierney’s chart expects the reverse outcome. It will be interesting to see what occurs here, but I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a more lopsided defensive corps.

Where Do the Sabres Land?

The Sabres defensive xGF percentage of 46.92 would land them in the sixth position between New Jersey and Philadelphia (which is also where their forward group ranked, coincidentally). Hilariously, the Devils edged-out Buffalo for the fifth spot in the rankings by a mere one-hundredth of a percent.

Before really diving into the state of their divisional opponents, I expected the Sabres defensive corps to land near or at the bottom of the list. The only high-end piece in the projected starting lineup is Rasmus Dahlin.

Jake McCabe has nice defensive impacts, and Henri Jokiharju is a promising up-and-comer. Colin Miller is arguably the second-best defenseman on the roster right now, but for some reason, he just couldn’t seem to stay out of the press box in 2019-20.

The most unfortunate part of the Sabres defense is the fact that it’s essentially impossible to optimize the pairings. Both Rasmus Ristolainen and Brandon Montour absolutely tank whatever pairing they’re placed on. At most, you can create one pairing with a positive xG projection in this model.

I was pretty steadfast in my stance that if both Ristolainen and Montour were to return this season, there was no conceivable way the Sabres defense could produce positive xG impact results, and I stand by that conclusion.

Photo Credit: Sara Schmidle/NHLI via Getty Images