With the 2020-21 regular season right around the corner, a lot has been made of the difficult slate of teams the Buffalo Sabres will face in the East Division. Fans want to know how the blue-and-gold stack-up from a projected analytics standpoint.

For that reason, we decided to rank the position groups for each team in the division based on expected-goal projections. Our first list will rank every one of the Sabres’ East Division opponents in 2020-21. This exercise uses Sean Tierney’s lineup model to project xGF percentage for each anticipated forward line, and subsequently, each forward corps as a whole.

Line combination projections can seem arbitrary, but I decided to structure it by looking at linemate TOI numbers from 2019-20 (while also using basic logic to plug-in new additions). So, any trio, or pair of players who spent a majority of their time together in 2019-20 will be slated on the same line, and we’ll fill the holes (or add new pieces) in the lineup as we see fit.

1. Boston Bruins

Notable Forward Additions: Craig Smith

Notable Forward Departures: Danton Heinen

Synopsis:

For the sake of this exercise, I avoided the convolution involved with determining where the Bruins would rank without David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand. Though they will both miss the first few weeks of the season, I ranked Boston as though their forward lineup was fully healthy.

With all of their top-six players available, the Bruins stand head and shoulders above the rest of the division in terms of forward talent. Their core features an outstanding top three lines, as well as what could be the strongest center spine in the division.

During their President’s Trophy run last season, Boston had two of the top-three xGAR players in the league in Pastrnak and Brad Marchand. Their only notable loss was a bottom-six asset in Danton Heinen, but they made up for it and then some by signing former Nashville Predators’ forward (and analytics darling), Craig Smith.

The real strength of this group rests in their two-way ability. Despite the fact that the Bruins had one of the lowest xGF/60 rates in the league last season at 2.22, they held an xGA/68 rate of 1.98. That differential of .68 was good for third-best in the NHL.

According to Tierney’s model, Boston’s forwards hold an overall xGF percentage of 53.58 (with the lines as assembled in the table above). Given the strength of their top three lines, and the fact that 2020-21 is a shortened season, they could do even more damage if they shift their ice time distributions.

2. New York Islanders

Notable Forward Additions: Dmytro Timashov

Notable Forward Departures: Derick Brassard

Synopsis:

The Islanders’ placement here is going to come as a surprise to a lot of people. Even I was a little stunned that they finished this high. On paper, New York’s forward lineup isn’t all that impressive. They have a decent enough top-six, and some solid depth pieces, but overall, it’s a pretty average personnel group.

Their underlying success has a lot to do with head coach Barry Trotz, and his ability to optimize the talent at his disposal. While the Islanders did have to make a couple sacrifices on their blue line as a result of their cap-crunch this offseason, their offense remained virtually unscathed.

We don’t expect Trotz to vary wildly from his most consistent line trios from 2019-20. That being said, there are a couple of young assets like Dmytro Timashov who he might work into the lineup ahead of someone like Andrew Ladd or Cal Clutterbuck in the bottom-six.

Tierney’s model gives the Islanders forwards an overall xGF rate of 51.74-percent. We’ll see how their system fares against a much more difficult slate of opponents than they’re accustomed to. Given their coach’s track record, and how many incumbent roster players exist from last season, they should be up for the challenge.

3. Philadelphia Flyers

Notable Forward Additions: None

Notable Forward Departures: None

Synopsis:

Despite the fact that I listed Philadelphia as one of my potential drop-off candidates last week, they are one of the most talented teams in the division. On the surface, their forward group looks pretty strong. Their centers are solid, and their top-six wingers are above-average. Very few metrically negative assets exist on their forward roster.

Last season, the Flyers ranked 12^th in the NHL with an xGF/60 rate of 2.43. That paced-out almost identically to the Metropolitan Division leading Washington Capitals. With a solid mix of young assets and established veterans, they should be able to replicate their 2019-20 rate of offensive efficiency.

The most important contributing factor to the Flyers’ success last year was the depth scoring contributions they experienced at forward. The key to repeating that trend could depend on Morgan Frost and his ability to assume third-line center duties. The 21-year-old put together a nice rookie season in the AHL and acquitted himself admirably in a 20-game stint with the big club.

The Flyers’ are only expected to produce an xGF rate of 50.82-percent, according to Tierney’s model. That’s a solid mark, but it does seem a little modest. Despite allowing a higher-than-average xGA rate as a team, they were very solid offensively last season and saw virtually no player turnover.

4. Pittsburgh Penguins

Notable Forward Additions: Kasperi Kapanen, Mark Jankowski, Colton Sceviour

Notable Forward Departures: Patric Hornqvist

Synopsis:

In a way, the Penguins forward depth chart is constructed similarly to Buffalo. They have a very strong top-six, but not a whole lot of depth. At some point, Pittsburgh is headed for a fall. It’s a little comedic to say something like that after they paced-out at 102 points in 2019-20. Still, their core is aging, and there is very little in the form of offensive support behind them.

*Please note: Zach Aston-Reese has been excluded from this exercise since he’s expected to miss nearly half the season while recovering from surgery

Jim Rutherford continued his streak of head-scratching moves this offseason, one of which was paying a king’s ransom to the Toronto Maple Leafs in exchange for a very average middle-six forward in Kasperi Kapanen. He had better hope that Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin remain healthy for the entire season. Otherwise, the Penguins’ decline could occur sooner than later.

Given the aforementioned lack of depth, it’s no surprise that Tierney’s model has Pittsburgh as essentially a break-even xGF team at forward. Last season, their success was largely a result of excellent defensive play. Their mark of 2.2 xGA/60 was good for seventh in the league.

If the Penguins can remain effective defensively, they might be able to keep contending. Should they falter in that regard, they no longer have the offensive firepower to make up the difference.

5. Washington Capitals

Notable Forward Additions: Conor Sheary

Notable Forward Departures: None

Synopsis:

The Capitals’ ranking here was one of the bigger surprises for me, personally. I mentioned above that they were essentially on par with Philadelphia in terms of team xGF last season. Like the Flyers, Washington made nearly no changes to their roster.

Obviously, the Capitals’ main offensive core is aging. Alex Ovechkin, T.J. Oshie and Nicklas Backstrom are all over the age of 33. Similar to the Penguins, there is a forward depth issue here, and Washington is heading for an inevitable drop-off. This team was on pace to well surpass 100 points during the 2019-20 regular season (another similarity they share with Pittsburgh).

Perhaps this is the year. If the forward group truly does experience a regression, the Capitals’ defense and lack of depth in net probably won’t be able to bail them out. I’ll remain skeptical that an extreme decline takes place this season (not enough of one to push them out of playoff contention anyway).

For a team that carried an overall xGF rate of 50.65-percent last season, I’d be pretty shocked if the forward group ends up with an xGF percentage of 48.41 as Tierney’s model indicates.

6. New Jersey Devils

Notable Forward Additions: Andreas Johnsson

Notable Forward Departures: Blake Coleman (trade deadline), Wayne Simmonds (trade deadline)

Synopsis:

The only surprise here is that the Devils aren’t dead-last. On paper, their top-six is probably the least impressive in the division. They do have a little bit of depth to speak of in the bottom-six, but it’s still nothing to write home about.

The addition of Andreas Johnsson is nice, but he’s probably best served as a complimentary piece in the middle six. His presence likely isn’t enough to make up for losing a player like Blake Coleman at the trade deadline last season.

There is a reason why pretty much every model has New Jersey finishing last in the East Division, and it starts up front. Their only real hope for offensive success rests on the shoulders of Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes. If those two can take big developmental leaps down the middle, the Devils situation won’t be so bleak.

Aside from some sort of meteoric growth from their young pieces, this group is incomplete. Tierney’s xGF rate projection of 47.11-percent is very similar to the 46.91-percent overall mark they finished with last season. Nothing they did this offseason should result in a discernable improvement in that regard.

New York Rangers

Notable Forward Additions: Alexis Lafreniere

Notable Forward Departures: Jesper Fast

Synopsis:

The Rangers are very interesting, and while I feel that they overperformed on offense last season, I certainly don’t see them as the worst forward group in the division. For a team that was on pace to finish the season with 92 points, they ranked near the bottom of the league in both even-strength xGF and xGA.

It is worth noting that a lot of the Rangers’ goals came as a result of having a 22.9-percent conversion rate on the power-play, which was good for seventh in the league. While losing Jesper Fast will probably have a negative impact on their five-on-five metrics, the power-play unit should remain effective.

Alexis Lafreniere’s arrival is a major wild card here as well. If he is immediately impactful at the NHL level, he could really boost what his team is capable of producing down the lineup. If he takes a while to adjust, expect this team to look very mortal in this division.

Tierney’s model projects the latter (forward xGF rate of 46.29-percent). Apparently losing Fast and replacing him with Lafreniere didn’t do much to move the needle from the 47.48-percent xGF rate this squad produced in 2019-20.

Where Do the Sabres Land?

So, let’s talk about the Sabres. With the lines as shown in the image below, Tierney’s formula places Buffalo between Washington and New Jersey (i.e. sixth in the East Division). Ranking-wise, that sounds about right. While Washington could see an offensive decline in 2020-21, I still think they have the superior forward corps.

An important note here is that Buffalo has by far the most forward turnover in the division from last season. Most of their 2020-21 divisional foes made minor alterations up front whereas the Sabres could reasonably dress 5-6 new starting forwards on opening night.

I’ve used the term “wild card” a couple times in this piece, and I’ll use it again here, because the Sabres offense probably has the widest “potential swing” of any of the teams I’ve listed above. Tierney’s model came up with a forward group xGF rate of 48.18-percent for Buffalo. It’s not unfair, but with so many new faces, it will be interesting to see if the past data (for players coming from other organizations) holds accurate for this model.

Later this week, we’ll replicate this exercise and rank the East Division defensive rosters, and goaltending tandems. Stay tuned!

Photo Credit: Sara Schmidle/NHLI via Getty Images