Coming off of a career year, forward Tage Thompson is riding high into the 2022-23 NHL season as the Buffalo Sabres’ number one center.

HERE. TO. STAY‼️

We have agreed to terms with forward Tage Thompson to a seven-year contract extension worth $50 million.

Details: https://t.co/I0PGclnYQ1 pic.twitter.com/qlHiGDWFpH

— Buffalo Sabres (@BuffaloSabres) August 30, 2022

It was not always that cut-and-dry for Thompson though. After coming over in the much-maligned Ryan O’Reilly trade with the St. Louis Blues, Thompson notably struggled to find his fit within the Buffalo Sabres lineup.

In his first 104 games with the Sabres, Thompson amassed only 15 goals on 204 shots. Saying Thompson’s performance was a disappointment would be an understatement. And then, head coach Don Granato walked through the door and something seemed to have clicked with Thompson under Granato’s leadership.

Last season, under Granato’s tutelage, Thompson scored 38 goals in 78 games, on 253 shots. It should also be mentioned that seven of Thompson’s eight goals in 2020-21 came under Don Granato’s interim leadership. That adds up to 45 goals in 102 games under Granato.

Talk about a glow up.

The increased production from Thompson has many wondering – what has changed and can Thompson keep up this pace? I am here to tell you – freshly-extended Tage Thompson is probably not a consistent 40-goal scorer, but that is OK. To talk about where Thompson looks land in 2022-23, you must first look back to 2020-21. In 38 games, Thompson scored eight goals on 96 shots.

According to HockeyViz, Thompson scored six of his eight goals on 81 wrist / snap shots.

Fast forward to 2021-22, Thompson once again feasted on those wrist / snap shots but this time, he was able to turn 222 wrist / snap shots into 25 goals.

More impressive than those 25 goals is the mention that Thompson only had 15.3 xG on those aforementioned wrist / snap shots. Thompson’s ability to get to a spot where he can score consistently is something that has clearly developed with more shot-on-goal repetition.

The analytics do a good job pointing out that Thompson’s bread and butter are his wrist / snap shots. Judging by his career stats, those types of shots are always something Thompson will end up employing heavily during games.

As one might be able to surmise, with more usage came more offensive production for Thompson. In one season, per Hockey Reference, Thompson went from 13:52 of ice time per game to 17:53 of ice time per game. Thompson’s shots on goal increased from 96 to 253 in one season. Thompson’s shooting percentage increased from 8.3 to 15.0 in one season.

Judging by a breakdown of his career statistics, Thompson’s 2020-21 shooting percentage was a little underwhelming, while his 2021-22 shooting percentage might have been an aberration. With last year’s breakout mixed in, Thompson’s average career shooting percentage sits at 10.9%.

If we can take some creative liberties on this one, we can try to get an idea of where Thompson might end up next season. Taking the 253 shots he had last year and mixing in the career shooting percentage of 10.9%, Thompson would end up around 27 goals.

Coming off of a 38 goal season, that would certainly feel a little underwhelming but when you are reminded that only two players have scored more than 27 goals in a season over the last five seasons (Eichel – 36 goals in 2019-20 and Skinner – 40 goals in 2018-19 and 33 goals in 2021-22), complaints are usually hard to come by.

The one wild card for Thompson this season? A full 82 games aside a healthy Alex Tuch.

Since coming over in the Jack Eichel trade with the Vegas Golden Knights, Tuch has been a much needed spark for the Buffalo Sabres offense. Tuch scored 12 goals in 50 games but more importantly, he recorded 26 assists as well. Tuch’s effect on Thompson can be seen furthermore by comparing analytics of linemates.

According to MoneyPuck, of all Buffalo Sabres offensive lines that played together at least 120 minutes last season, Skinner / Thompson / Tuch lead the team in xG percentage (52.5%), xG for (20.3) and xG for per 60 minutes (3.19) in 381.7 minutes (42 games) together.

To put that in perspective, the Skinner / Thompson / Olofsson line was together for 237.6 minutes (35 games), putting together a 44% xG, 10.7 xG for and 2.7 xG for per 60 minutes.

The answer is clear and Don Granato knows it.

Jeff Skinner / Tage Thompson / Alex Tuch should be a strong candidate for the top line on opening night. While Skinner (+0.23 xGA/60 in 2021-22) and Thompson (+0.22 xGA/60 in 2021-22) are not the greatest on the defensive side of the puck, Tuch’s defensive abilities around the net (-0.36 xGA/60 in 2021-22) should allow all three to pour goals in with ease, while attempting to limit the damage on defense..

As we have all learned by simply being followers of the Buffalo Sabres, the good always welcomes the potential of something bad happening.

In this case, Tage Thompson’s team-leading 10 power play goals last season certainly padded his goal total, which could be a spot where he sees a little bit of a dip in 2022-23.

Thompson’s shot will continue to be a benefit for the Sabres power play units but with more talent on the offensive side of the puck, those power play goals can certainly be hard to be counted on.

With the calendar turning to September, it might still be a little early for projections to roll out for the 2022-23 NHL season. Still, Tage Thompson cashing in and hitting his career averages might be the best thing to happen to the Buffalo Sabres, even if it means his overall production dips a little.

Data via: Moneypuck and Hockey Viz

Photo Credit: Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images