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Girgensons could be the answer to slot in at top line right wing

Now that we’re a few weeks into the offseason, the Buffalo Sabres roster is heavy on the left side at forward. The left-wing is stacked with Taylor Hall, Victor Olofsson, Jeff Skinner, Zemgus Girgensons, and Tobias Rieder. Tage Thompson had some success two years ago playing his off-side and if Casey Mittelstadt plays the wing that’s another player on the left side.

Long story short, they’re going to need one of those left wingers to flip to the right side to balance out the top six of the lineup. As of now, we all are assuming that Hall will play on the top line with Jack Eichel. The question is who is going to play on the right side on that line? The easy answer could be Sam Reinhart because that has been Eichel’s running mate for a few years.

However, I think the best way to get full value out of the roster as currently constructed, is to get Reinhart on another line. The best fit for that spot on the top line may be Girgensons.

Building a Deep Lineup

Before you roll your eyes or click off this article, hear me out. This isn’t an idea that I loved or even thought I’d be considering a few weeks ago. After taking some time to think about it and look at the roster; the logic behind it makes a lot of sense. This is about building the best lineup to fit how each line should be utilized with the current roster.

The Sabres have to consider sheltering Dylan Cozens in an offensive role with good linemates as he transitions to the NHL. They also have to surround Cody Eakin with good linemates to get the most value out of him, in my opinion.

We often get carried away with focusing on scoring ability in the top six and labeling lines as an indication of which will play the most.  Instead, ice time should be distributed not only on talent but based on the game situations. Many considered the LOG line as the fourth line for the Sabres last season. Yet, they played top nine minutes at 5 on 5 for the club.

Here is how I would throw together the forward lines as of now:

Hall – Eichel – Girgensons

Skinner – Staal – Cozens

Olofsson – Eakin – Reinhart

Rieder/Ruotsalainen – Lazar – Okposo/Thompson

Arttu Ruotsalainen is really a wild card in that lineup, but we’ll save that for another day.

Defensive Responsibility

There’s a lot I can dive into with that lineup on why I put it together, but let’s keep the focus on Girgensons. The primary reason he’s a good fit on that line is for the defensive responsibility the Sabres will need that top line to take.

Johan Larsson led a line that was deployed at over 60% of their shifts in the defensive zone. They were matched up against the opponents’ top line often and were a key reason why the Sabres defensive numbers looked good at 5 on 5.

There’s no need to cry over spilled milk anymore. Larsson is in the desert and the Sabres need to figure out how to distribute that defensive responsibility. They can’t rely on a line of Rieder, Lazar, and Okposo to handle that high-pressure deployment.

One of the best solutions to this issue is to hand more defensive responsibility to that top line. Eichel hasn’t had a year where he has been deployed at less than 57% offensive-zone starts. Having said that, his 63% offensive-zone starts last season under Krueger were the lowest since the 2016-17 season. Next season that is going to need to be around 50%. Hall has been deployed similarly to Eichel over the last few years. He hasn’t been under 54% oZs since the 2015-16 season, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Hall has been an excellent defensive impact forward throughout his career, as you’ll see below in Micah McCurdy’s impact charts.

This past season was an outlier, but he could get back to his old form. Especially in Krueger’s defensive friendly system.

Eichel also took a step in his defensive game this past season and could be ready to handle more defensive responsibility at this point in his career.

Girgensons, as you’d expect, has been a solid defensive forward throughout his career. Moving him up to the top line wouldn’t be too big of a stretch for him. He’s played against quality competition in the last few years and with improved quality of teammates, his offensive game could improve.

Eichel and Girgensons have a history of improved defensive on-ice numbers at 5 on 5 over the last few years. According to Natural Stat Trick, in the 385 minutes together Eichel improved his shot quality against per 60 minutes to 2.22. Without Girgensons, his shot quality against is at 2.35. The downside of that duo is the offensive numbers to a considerable dip. Adding Hall on the other wing should help alleviate any offensive downside.

Eichel and Hall are also two of the top transition forwards in the NHL, according to Corey Sznajder’s tracking data. That makes them even more favorable to be deployed in more defensive zone situations. They excel at carrying the puck out of the defensive zone and flipping the ice on their opponent.

Offensively, Girgensons has the speed and talent to keep up with the style that those two like to play in transition. He can also be an effective forward on the forecheck in the offensive zone.

The benefit of putting Girgensons on the top line is that you can pull him off of it if you’d like in certain game situations. For example, if the Sabres are trailing they can throw Reinhart back on that top line to create a stacked top line. Overloading a line isn’t a wise approach if that’s the plan for the majority of the game. Especially if you have poor depth like the Sabres have had in the past.

Going into next season they finally have some depth at forward and can spread out their talent to keep teams off balance if they take advantage of it. Krueger needs to be willing to match his lines to best fit the role that they’ll be asked to play. There’s no longer an excuse for overloading one or two lines next year.

Data via: Corey Sznajder, Hockeyviz, and Natural Stat Trick
Photo Credit: Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images
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4 thoughts on “Girgensons could be the answer to slot in at top line right wing

  1. This is very interesting. The question I have though is about Tage Thompson. 4th line minutes for him probably isn’t allowing him to prove his worth. If he’s ready to make the jump as many have mentioned, where can he fit?

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