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Christian Dvorak would be a good target for the Sabres in the right scenario

An interesting name that has come up recently in the rumor mill is Arizona Coyotes center, Christian Dvorak. Elliotte Friedman mentioned in his last 31 Thoughts that teams are interested in the 25-year-old.

The Coyotes appear to be a club that is headed down the path of a rebuild. They had to forfeit their first-round pick in the draft this year due to the prospect workout violations. They’ve also hired a new first-time NHL head coach in Andre Tourigny.

We’ve seen the reports of players such as Phil Kessel, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Darcy Kuemper, Connor Garland, and now Christian Dvorak being on the market. Bill Armstrong looks ready to rebuild the Coyotes with his players.

Dvorak’s Game

It’s surprising that Dvorak could be on the market because of the team-friendly contract he’s playing on. There’s an argument to be made that it could be one of the best contracts in the league. He has four years left on his deal and it carries a $4.45 million cap hit. That’s excellent value in today’s NHL for a true second-line center that can score between 45-50 points.

Dvorak scored at a 25 goals and 45 points over 82 games pace this season. That’s on the back of a 45 points over 82 games pace during the 2019-20 campaign. His point total isn’t going to grab your attention, but it’s his style of play that the Sabres could use in their lineup. They also need to recoup players that can drive play offensively with some of the moves that are likely going to occur and forwards they’ve lost in the past year.

Over the last two years, he has been second on the Coyotes in even-strength offense in Evolving Hockey’s goals above replacement model.

Micah McCurdy’s isolated impact model shows that Dvorak has the ability to be an offensive play-driving centerman in this league.

He can be a threat offensively in a variety of ways. Dvorak has the ability to use his skillset to beat defenders in tight windows and finish around the net. 

Dvorak can also use his vision and passing ability around the net to set up his teammates.

You’re going to find him around the net the majority of the time in the offensive zone because of how good he is with the puck in tight. It’s what has allowed him to be the strong offensive player that he is. He’s not going to wow you in transition or make highlight-reel moves. He’s a consistent player that thrives in the high-danger areas of the ice as we saw occur with Sam Reinhart.

Dvorak isn’t a dominant defensive player but he’s reliable in his own end of the ice. Rick Tocchet gained some trust in him over the last two years in his own end of the ice. In 2019-20 he was deployed at a 58% offensive-zone rate at 5 on 5, according to Natural Stat Trick. That shifted to a 47% oZs rate this past season.

The Right Scenario

It seems like a no-brainer that the Sabres should make a run at Dvorak if he’s available. They’ll need another center with the likely departure of Jack Eichel and he can help shelter younger players on the roster like Dylan Cozens.

The catch here is that Kevyn Adams will need to have a plan in place to go that quick “reset” route that I’ve referenced a handful of times in previous articles. If they bring back Sam Reinhart and get some players in return for Eichel that can step in right now; this move would make sense.

If the plan is to go into an all-in rebuild, then this doesn’t make sense. There’s no need to give up assets to acquire a player that will just be wasted on a bad team.

The acquisition cost for Dvorak I imagine would not be cheap for any team looking to make the move. The Sabres could have the opportunity to flip a piece or two. They should be able to build up some assets in return for Eichel and Rasmus Ristolainen if they move him as well.

We’ll start to get a sense of the path that Adams and his new front office want to take in the next week. If they’re looking to remain competitive in the short term, then Dvorak should be near the top of their list of players to target this offseason.

Data via: Evolving Hockey, Cap Friendly, Micah McCurdy, and Natural Stat Trick
Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
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2 thoughts on “Christian Dvorak would be a good target for the Sabres in the right scenario

    1. I concur. Wouldn’t that be interesting, to bring in another Boston area kid that played with Jack on the Junior Bruins

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