The Buffalo Sabres have found their scoring touch under interim head coach Don Granato. We’ve almost all forgotten about the long stretches of games the team would score two goals or less under Ralph Krueger. The turnaround in scoring has sparked their strong performance over the last 20 games.

You may remember earlier in the season before things went off the rails that numbers people, including myself, suggested patience with this team. They were not going to shoot at six percent as a group all season. Then when things fell off the cliff, that discussion went away and we waited for the inevitable coaching change.

Team Level

Well, don’t look now, but that positive regression in the Sabres shooting is occurring. As you’ll see below in the chart from Evolving Hockey, the regression to the mean started just before Krueger was fired. It has continued under Granato and is one of the reasons that they’ve started to win games with more consistency.

This isn’t a situation where higher quality shooting opportunities under Granato are resulting in an improved team shooting percentage. In the 27 games under Krueger, the Sabres had a score-adjusted shot quality for (xGF) of 2.09 per 60 minutes at 5 on 5. They’re actually at a lower rate of 2.07 per 60 minutes at 5 on 5 entering yesterday’s game since the coaching change.

In actual goals scored, the Sabres have improved from 1.98 goals per 60 minutes at 5 on 5 to 2.30 going into the game against the Rangers, according to Evolving Hockey. Under Krueger, they were shooting a league-worst 7.15% in all situations and after the change, they’re shooting 10.25%. The team shooting percentage under Granato is the 10th-best in the league over that stretch.

The best way to drive it home in the numbers is to understand this is a club that went from shooting 11 goals below expected in all situations, to one that is now shooting eight goals above expected under Granato.

Adding Finishing Talent

While some of this is the Sabres getting back some puck luck, there are legitimate reasons that can explain this turnaround. The Sabres may have lost a talented play driver in Taylor Hall, but he has been one of the worst finishers in the league over the last two years. They’ve replaced him and other struggling players with forwards that have been able to put the puck in the back of the net.

Arttu Ruotsalainen is one such player that has joined the mix as of late. We saw his ability to finish playing in Liiga and the AHL this season. That has carried over to his start in the NHL. He has four goals in nine games and is shooting three goals over expected, according to Moneypuck. Jeff Skinner is another player that has started to find the net more, as expected (by me). He has gone from shooting over three goals below expected to at expected the last 25 games. Rasmus Asplund is also going through a hot streak of shooting at 26% under the new coach.

The key player in all of this may be Casey Mittelstadt. He was playing a third-line role under Krueger with limited offensive opportunity. Under Granato, he’s being deployed middle-six minutes and is on the top power play unit. As a result, he’s finishing at a higher rate with more opportunity. He has improved from shooting 7.6% in the beginning to 25% since the coaching change.

The interesting thing about Mittelstadt, while he’s not going to maintain a 25% shooting rate, he is an above-average finisher.

He has an underrated shot that he hasn’t used often enough in his first few years in the league. If Granato can get him to lean on his shot more, Mittelstadt can become an offensive threat for the Sabres moving forward.

This shooting bender under Granato is something we’re going to need to consider at the end of the season when evaluating the team. They’re shooting above their talent, but that doesn’t mean it all is a mirage. They’ve added players with finishing ability and given other players with glimpses of scoring talent more of an opportunity.

Data via: Evolving Hockey, Moneypuck, and Hockeyviz.com

Photo Credit: Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images