We’ve reached our third and final faceoff of the week. Our final topic will take a look at the Buffalo Sabres blue line. In particular, the 5 on 5 ice time of Rasmus Dahlin. It’s time for him to take over the role as top pair defender from Rasmus Ristolainen. He’s in his third season in the league and they need to know he can handle that responsibility.

While this should happen, there’s the question of if it’ll actually happen. That’s what Anthony and I are going to take sides on today. Will Dahlin lead all Sabres defensemen in 5 on 5 ice time this season?

Anthony will take the side of yes and I’ll be on the side of no.

Anthony | Yes

I’ll start by acknowledging the fact that history isn’t on my side here. Three consecutive head coaches (including Ralph Krueger) have made the head-scratching decision to utilize Rasmus Ristolainen as the team’s defensive workhorse. With that being said, this Sabres team is constructed in a way that I feel helps my stance here (which I’ll get to momentarily) and could represent a “changing of the guard” on the blue line. 

Before we dive into why I believe Rasmus Dahlin will lead the Sabres defense in even-strength minutes, there is an interesting point regarding Ristolainen’s minutes that seems worth addressing. Last season, the 26-year-old lead the team with an average of 17:07 minutes at even-strength per-game. In looking at his playing trends over time, he saw a somewhat dramatic reduction in his five-on-five TOI rolling average after the first six weeks of the 2019-20 campaign.

From the middle of November through the end of the season, Ristolainen’s usage experienced a pretty drastic reduction on average (with some peaks and valleys in between). Dahlin on the other hand (who ranked fifth on the Buffalo blue line, averaging 15:03 per-game at five-on-five), experienced a very consistent even-strength deployment rate, by comparison.

This topic becomes even more interesting when you examine the playing trends of the rest of the Sabres blueliners. While nobody experienced the same dramatic TOI variation as Ristolainen, players like Brandon Montour and Jake McCabe also saw some significant fluctuations in their five-on-five minutes.

Aside from Dahlin, only Henri Jokiharju had a similarly consistent even-strength ice-time rate throughout the season. This could indicate that Krueger had a specific plan as to how he intended to use his younger assets (one from which he didn’t really deviate). 

Maybe this was unintentional. Kreuger made enough sub-optimal coaching decisions to make this theory seem like at least a bit of a stretch. If this strategy was intentional, however, the question now becomes – will he still consider Dahlin as one of his “inexperienced” assets in 2021?

This segues nicely into the overall theme I want to touch on here. At some point, the Sabres need to “unleash the beast” in reference to Dahlin. In his rookie season under Phil Housley, the then 18-year-old was outstanding, ranking 30^th among all NHL defensemen with an xGAR rate of 9.7 (by far the highest mark on the Sabres’ defense). For all his flaws as a coach, letting the future cornerstone contribute offensively and create opportunities in transition was the one thing he did right. 

Conversely, Krueger took a much more conservative approach, both with Dahlin, and his overall defensive system. Now that the head coach can look back and examine the contrast between Dahlin’s first and second professional seasons, he would be wise to expand Dahlin’s role and let him do what he does best. After all, you don’t drive a Ferrari around only to keep it under 30 MPH.

 Circling back to what I alluded to in the introduction, the Sabres roster is built in a very specific way. In a shortened campaign, they will need to rely on their top-heavy top-six. It would lend itself to reason that the coaching staff will place their top scoring threats with transitional defenders. The Sabres don’t have many of those, but Dahlin is easily the best one. 

At the end of the day, the Sabres drafted Dahlin to become their franchise defenseman. It’s somewhat understandable that Kreuger didn’t want to ask too much of him as a 19-year-old in his second NHL season, but the kid gloves need to come off. 

There is immense pressure on the organization to snap the current nine-year playoff drought. They’ve added some high-octane offensive pieces to help try to accomplish that feat, but that might not be enough. Removing Dahlin’s training wheels in year-three is essential. If the Sabres plan to become a more offensively aggressive club (which they’re certainly constructed to be), it only makes sense to use him as their go-to transitional facilitator, and offensive contributor on the back end.

Chad | No

Of the three different topics we discussed this week, this is the one that I’m the most confident in. I’ve written about how it’s time to give Dahlin the most minutes on the blue line. I just have very little faith that this will actually happen.

With both Ristolainen and Montour back I don’t see how Krueger puts them both behind Dahlin. He’s a fan of Ristolainen and played him as his top defender last season. Why is anything going to be different?

I can see Dahlin getting a boost in his minutes from last year. He finished fifth in time on ice per games played at 5 on 5 among defenders, according to Natural Stat Trick. A scenario where he jumps into the top three makes sense, but not all the way to the top.

The Swedish defender is only 20-years-old and Krueger could (incorrectly) use that as a reason to not give him the most minutes on the blue line. He didn’t show a lot of trust in him being able to handle responsibility at both ends of the ice. Of the 59 games he played last season, only three times did Dahlin skate the most minutes at 5 on 5.

One interesting part is that these three games came near the end of the season. Game 53, 56, and 57 were those three contests. Makes you wonder what would have happened if the season wasn’t paused.

Anyways, I do legitimately believe that Dahlin is going to see a bump in his ice time. I just don’t think it’ll be enough to finish at the top of ice time among all defensemen on the club.

Data via: Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and Charting Hockey

Photo Credit: Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images